Vyškov 0-1 Karviná – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Vyškov at 37%, yet in-form Karviná provide a compelling counter-argument — this Vyškov vs Karviná fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Vyškov host Karviná at Sportovní areál Drnovice in Czech Liga (Relegation Round). Kick-off is Thursday 30 May 2024 at 18:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 2 games, Vyškov have gone 0W 1D 1L — a 0.50 PPG return. Last five: L D. They are averaging 0.00 goals per game and conceding 0.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 2 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Karviná stand at 3W 4D 3L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L D W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Karviná away from home: 2W 4D 4L from their last 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form points away from home here. Karviná's 1.30 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of Vyškov's 0.50 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vyškov 1.30 xG and Karviná 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vyškov attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Karviná attack 0.838 / defence 1.002. League average goals — home 1.529 / away 1.289. Data: built from Vyškov's last 0 games and Karviná's last 30.
Result probabilities: Vyškov 37% | Draw 29% | Karviná 34%. Fair-value odds: Vyškov 2.72 | Draw 3.42 | Karviná 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Vyškov at 37% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Karviná (1.30 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Vyškov offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.54 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 53% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Vyškov's last 2 games and Karviná's last 10 away games) averaging 1.8 goals per game.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vyškov vs Karviná | Competition: Czech Liga, Relegation Round | Venue: Sportovní areál Drnovice • Kick-off: Thursday 30 May 2024 at 18:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vyškov 37% | Draw 29% | Karviná 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% (Under 53%) | BTTS Yes 53% (No 47%) | xG Vyškov 1.30 / Karviná 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Vyškov attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Karviná attack 0.838 / def 1.002 | league avg home 1.529 / away 1.289 • Poisson stance: Vyškov (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
Vyškov xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Karviná xG
53%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Vyškov vs Karviná FAQs
What time does Vyškov vs Karviná kick off?
Vyškov vs Karviná kicked off at 18:00 UK time on Thursday 30 May 2024 at Sportovní areál Drnovice.
What was the final score in Vyškov vs Karviná?
Vyškov 0 - 1 Karviná.
Where is Vyškov vs Karviná being played?
The match is being played at Sportovní areál Drnovice.
What competition is Vyškov vs Karviná part of?
Vyškov vs Karviná is a Czech Liga fixture (Relegation Round) (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Vyškov vs Karviná?
Our statistical model gives Vyškov a 37% chance of winning, Karviná a 34% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Vyškov the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vyškov vs Karviná?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Vyškov and Karviná will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Vyškov vs Karviná have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (53%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Vyškov's attack at 0.85x the league average against Karviná's defence at 1.00x — combine the two and it projects 1.30 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Karviná's attack versus Vyškov's defence, projects 1.24 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Vyškov's last 0 games and Karviná's last 30 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.5%), 1-0 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Vyškov Win
37%
2.72
29%
3.42
34%
2.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
0 – 1
9.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
Vyškov xG
Total xG
2.54
1.24
Karviná xG
2.72
37%
Home win
3.42
29%
Draw
2.94
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
29%
3.46
27%
3.67
Win to Nil
11%
9.42
9%
10.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 9.8 | 6.1 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 12.7 | 7.9 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 8.3 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.6 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Vyškov vs Karviná Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Vyškov vs Karviná?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Vyškov and Karviná expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Vyškov and 1.24 for Karviná, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Vyškov vs Karviná?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 2 outings, Vyškov have picked up 0.50 PPG on a 0W 1D 1L record — L-D across the most recent five.
Karviná's form line: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games, 1.50 PPG, last five L-W.
Put side by side, Karviná are the form team by 1.00 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Vyškov.
The Goals Picture
Vyškov are averaging 0.00 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game recently; Karviná are on 0.50 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Vyškov have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games; Karviná in 0%.
Defensively: Vyškov have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games; Karviná in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 2 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vyškov
Pre-Season
Karviná
Early Season
Vyškov (Home) vs Karviná (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Vyškov
Pre-Season
Karviná
Early Season
❓ Vyškov vs Karviná Form FAQs
What form are Vyškov and Karviná in coming into this match?
Vyškov have gone 0W 1D 1L in their last 2 games (0.50 PPG), while Karviná have gone 1W 0D 1L in their last 2 (1.50 PPG).
Have Vyškov or Karviná been keeping clean sheets recently?
Vyškov have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Karviná in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 2 H2H matches in our data, going back to May 2024. All of them came in Czech Liga. The most recent in our data was on 2 June 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Vyškov
0
Draws
2
Karviná
Recent Meetings
❓ Vyškov vs Karviná H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Vyškov and Karviná?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Vyškov have won 0, Karviná have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Vyškov and Karviná last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 2 June 2024: Karviná 1-0 Vyškov.
Who has won more matches between Vyškov and Karviná?
Karviná have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vyškov home games / Karviná away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Vyškov vs Karviná Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Vyškov and Karviná matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Vyškov's recent matches and 0% of Karviná's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Vyškov and Karviná matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Vyškov's recent games and 50% of Karviná's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Vyškov and Karviná matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 0% of Vyškov's recent matches and 100% of Karviná's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Karviná defy the odds to beat Vyškov 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Karviná beat Vyškov 0-1 at Sportovní areál Drnovice, Relegation Round, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vyškov 1.30 xG and Karviná 1.24 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Vyškov fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vyškov attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Karviná attack 0.84 / defence 1.00, drawn from 0/30 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Vyškov 37% | Draw 29% | Karviná 34%, with Vyškov to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Karviná win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 25% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vyškov 0%, Karviná 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 0%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Karviná arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 0.50. Form held, and they took the win. Karviná conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.