České Budějovice 2-1 Táborsko – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates České Budějovice at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this České Budějovice vs Táborsko fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov plays host to České Budějovice versus Táborsko in Czech Liga, Relegation Round. Kick-off: Thursday 30 May 2024 at 17:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
České Budějovice have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 2W 5D 3L. Last five: W L D D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
In front of their own supporters this season, České Budějovice have posted 4W 3D 3L at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects České Budějovice 1.83 xG and Táborsko 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: České Budějovice attack 1.043 / defence 1.057 | Táborsko attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.529 / away 1.289. Data: 60 České Budějovice games / 0 Táborsko games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: České Budějovice 52% | Draw 25% | Táborsko 23%. Fair-value odds: České Budějovice 1.92 | Draw 4.00 | Táborsko 4.35. České Budějovice hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.99. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 2.99 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is České Budějovice at 52% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on České Budějovice if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.99 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 58% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
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🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: České Budějovice vs Táborsko | Competition: Czech Liga, Relegation Round | Venue: Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov • Kick-off: Thursday 30 May 2024, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: České Budějovice 52% | Draw 25% | Táborsko 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 59% | xG České Budějovice 1.83 / Táborsko 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: České Budějovice attack 1.043 / def 1.057 | Táborsko attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.529 / away 1.289 • Poisson stance: České Budějovice (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.83
České Budějovice xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Táborsko xG
59%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does České Budějovice vs Táborsko kick off?
České Budějovice vs Táborsko kicked off at 17:00 on Thursday 30 May 2024 at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov.
What was the final score in České Budějovice vs Táborsko?
České Budějovice 2 - 1 Táborsko.
Where is České Budějovice vs Táborsko being played?
The match is being played at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov.
What competition is České Budějovice vs Táborsko part of?
České Budějovice vs Táborsko is a Relegation Round fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win České Budějovice vs Táborsko?
Our statistical model gives České Budějovice a 52% chance of winning, Táborsko a 23% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making České Budějovice the favourite.
Will both teams score in České Budějovice vs Táborsko?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both České Budějovice and Táborsko will score (BTTS).
Will České Budějovice vs Táborsko have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between České Budějovice and Táborsko?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are České Budějovice and Táborsko in?
České Budějovice (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-D-D-L. České Budějovice home split: 1.50 PPG from 10 | GF 1.60 / GA 1.40 | CS 1.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from České Budějovice's attack rating (1.04) and Táborsko's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.83 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Táborsko's attack (0.85x) against České Budějovice's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 1.16.
These ratings are built from 60/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
České Budějovice Win
52%
1.92
25%
4.00
23%
4.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.83
České Budějovice xG
Total xG
2.99
1.16
Táborsko xG
1.92
52%
Home win
4.00
25%
Draw
4.36
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.42
Clean Sheet
31%
3.19
16%
6.25
Win to Nil
16%
6.12
4%
27.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 5.8 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 10.7 | 6.2 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 9.8 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 6.0 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.7 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for České Budějovice vs Táborsko?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are České Budějovice and Táborsko expected to score?
The model projects 1.83 expected goals for České Budějovice and 1.16 for Táborsko, a combined total of 2.99.
How confident is the prediction model for České Budějovice vs Táborsko?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
České Budějovice
Pre-Season
Táborsko
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since May 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 June 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
České Budějovice
1
Draws
0
Táborsko
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between České Budějovice and Táborsko?
From 2 meetings on record, České Budějovice have won 1, Táborsko have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did České Budějovice and Táborsko last play each other?
They last met on 2 June 2024, when Táborsko 1-1 České Budějovice.
Who has won more matches between České Budějovice and Táborsko?
České Budějovice have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = České Budějovice home games / Táborsko away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as České Budějovice edge out Táborsko 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
České Budějovice beat Táborsko 2-1 at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov, Relegation Round, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting České Budějovice 1.83 xG and Táborsko 1.16 xG, a combined 2.99. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of České Budějovice attack 1.04 / defence 1.06 against Táborsko attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 60/0 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it České Budějovice 52% | Draw 25% | Táborsko 23%, with České Budějovice to win its most likely call at 52%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.