Teplice vs Slovácko – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Teplice (46%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Teplice face Slovácko.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Teplice host Slovácko at AGC Arena Na Stinadlech in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 27. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 3 April 2027 at 13:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Teplice stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W D L D W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Teplice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Teplice have posted 4W 4D 2L at AGC Arena Na Stinadlech — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Slovácko have recorded 1W 3D 6L from 10 outings — 0.60 PPG. Last five: D W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Slovácko, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Slovácko have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
On current form, Teplice have the edge — a 0.80 PPG advantage (1.40 vs 0.60) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 5 wins apiece for Teplice, 3 for Slovácko and 2 shared spoils from 10 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 31 Oct 2026, ended 3–1 with Teplice winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Teplice in-play tendencies (48 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games).
Slovácko in-play tendencies (48 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Teplice 50% versus Slovácko 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Teplice 42% | Slovácko 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Teplice 1.62 xG and Slovácko 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Teplice attack 0.944 / defence 0.978 | Slovácko attack 0.918 / defence 1.278. League average goals — home 1.347 / away 1.284. Slovácko bring a strong defensive rating of 1.278 — this is suppressing Teplice's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 43 Teplice games / 43 Slovácko games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Teplice 46% | Draw 29% | Slovácko 25%. Fair-value odds: Teplice 2.17 | Draw 3.45 | Slovácko 4.00. Teplice hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.78. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.78 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Teplice are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Teplice offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.78 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Teplice 50% | Slovácko 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Teplice vs Slovácko | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: AGC Arena Na Stinadlech • Kick-off: Saturday 3 Apr 2027, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Teplice 46% | Draw 29% | Slovácko 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 57% | xG Teplice 1.62 / Slovácko 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Teplice attack 0.944 / def 0.978 | Slovácko attack 0.918 / def 1.278 | league avg home 1.347 / away 1.284 • Poisson stance: Teplice (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.62
Teplice xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Slovácko xG
57%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Teplice vs Slovácko kick off?
Teplice vs Slovácko is scheduled to kick off at 13:00 on Saturday 3 April 2027 at AGC Arena Na Stinadlech.
Where is Teplice vs Slovácko being played?
The match is being played at AGC Arena Na Stinadlech.
What competition is Teplice vs Slovácko part of?
Teplice vs Slovácko is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Teplice vs Slovácko?
Our statistical model gives Teplice a 46% chance of winning, Slovácko a 25% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Teplice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Teplice vs Slovácko?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Teplice and Slovácko will score (BTTS).
Will Teplice vs Slovácko have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Teplice and Slovácko?
Record (10 meetings): Teplice 5W | Draws 2 | Slovácko 3W.
What form are Teplice and Slovácko in?
Teplice (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-L-D-W. Slovácko (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Teplice's attack at 0.94x the league average against Slovácko's defence at 1.28x — combine the two and it projects 1.62 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Slovácko's attack versus Teplice's defence, projects 1.15 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 1-0 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Teplice Win
46%
2.17
29%
3.44
25%
4.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.62
Teplice xG
Total xG
2.78
1.15
Slovácko xG
2.17
46%
Home win
3.44
29%
Draw
4.02
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.33
Clean Sheet
32%
3.17
20%
5.08
Win to Nil
15%
6.87
5%
20.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 7.2 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 11.6 | 6.7 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 9.5 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 5.1 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Teplice vs Slovácko?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Teplice and Slovácko expected to score?
The model projects 1.62 expected goals for Teplice and 1.15 for Slovácko, a combined total of 2.78.
How confident is the prediction model for Teplice vs Slovácko?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Teplice come into this having played 48 games, going 16W 15D 17L for 1.31 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-D-W. The sample for Teplice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Slovácko sit at 0.88 PPG from 48 outings (10W 12D 26L), a run that reads D-W-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for Slovácko is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Teplice carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.43 PPG clear of Slovácko — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Teplice's home form reads 8W 7D 10L across 25 games on their own ground, a 1.24 PPG return.
Away from home, Slovácko have taken 0.72 points per game from 25 outings (4W 6D 15L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Teplice come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Teplice are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Slovácko are on 1.00 scored and 1.58 conceded.
Last 48 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Teplice
Blended
Slovácko
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Teplice and Slovácko in coming into this match?
Teplice have gone 16W 15D 17L in their last 48 games (1.31 PPG), while Slovácko have gone 10W 12D 26L in their last 48 (0.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Teplice at home or Slovácko away?
Teplice's home record (1.24 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Teplice at home: 1.24 PPG; Slovácko away: 0.72 PPG.
Have Teplice or Slovácko been keeping clean sheets recently?
Teplice have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Slovácko in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 31 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Teplice's record when hosting Slovácko specifically: 3W 2D 1L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Teplice
2
Draws
3
Slovácko
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Teplice and Slovácko?
From 10 meetings on record, Teplice have won 5, Slovácko have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Teplice and Slovácko last play each other?
They last met on 31 October 2026, when Slovácko 1-3 Teplice.
Who has won more matches between Teplice and Slovácko?
Teplice have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Teplice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Slovácko are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Teplice 44%, Slovácko 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Teplice) and 36% (Slovácko).
On the defensive side: Teplice keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Teplice have failed to score in 32% of games; Slovácko in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Teplice home games / Slovácko away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Teplice play Slovácko?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Teplice's recent matches and 44% of Slovácko's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Teplice vs Slovácko usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Teplice's recent games and 36% of Slovácko's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Teplice and Slovácko tend to score early?
Teplice have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Slovácko in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.