Teplice 0-0 Slavia Praha – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Slavia Praha (41%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Teplice face Slavia Praha.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech plays host to Teplice versus Slavia Praha in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off: Sunday 1 October 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Teplice (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Czech Liga fixtures this term — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D L L W D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Teplice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Teplice's home record at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Czech Liga appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Slavia Praha's overall Czech Liga record this term: 8W 2D 0L from 10 games (2.60 PPG). Last five: W D W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Slavia Praha, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Czech Liga this season, Slavia Praha have posted 5W 4D 1L from 10 away outings — 1.90 PPG. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.90 is notably below their overall 2.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Slavia Praha are 1.10 PPG clear of Teplice in recent Czech Liga fixtures (2.60 vs 1.50). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H History
Slavia Praha hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 3 wins from 4 meetings. The hosts have won just 0 times in that span.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.8 per game across 4 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 18 Feb 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Slavia Praha have won 3 of 4 previous encounters, and at 3.8 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading
Teplice half-time and goal-timing data (44 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games).
Slavia Praha half-time and goal-timing data (44 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; they lead at the break 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Teplice 66% versus Slavia Praha 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Teplice 61% | Slavia Praha 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Teplice 0.78 xG and Slavia Praha 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Teplice attack 0.666 / defence 0.803 | Slavia Praha attack 1.077 / defence 0.659. League average goals — home 1.783 / away 1.209. Teplice's attack strength of 0.666 is below the league average — the 0.78 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Slavia Praha's defence strength of 0.659 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 39 Teplice games / 39 Slavia Praha games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Teplice 27% | Draw 32% | Slavia Praha 41%. Fair-value odds: Teplice 3.70 | Draw 3.12 | Slavia Praha 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 28% | BTTS probability 35% | Total xG 1.83. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 72% probability — total xG of 1.83 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 65% — Teplice's lower xG of 0.78 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 35%.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Slavia Praha at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Slavia Praha if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 1.83 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 28% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 35% on No. This conflicts with form data: Teplice 50% | Slavia Praha 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Teplice vs Slavia Praha | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Oct 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Teplice 27% | Draw 32% | Slavia Praha 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 28% | BTTS 35% | xG Teplice 0.78 / Slavia Praha 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Teplice attack 0.666 / def 0.803 | Slavia Praha attack 1.077 / def 0.659 | league avg home 1.783 / away 1.209 • Poisson stance: Slavia Praha (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.78
Teplice xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Slavia Praha xG
35%
BTTS
55%
Over 1.5
28%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Teplice vs Slavia Praha kick off?
Teplice vs Slavia Praha kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 1 October 2023 at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech.
What was the final score in Teplice vs Slavia Praha?
Teplice 0 - 0 Slavia Praha.
Where is Teplice vs Slavia Praha being played?
The match is being played at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech.
What competition is Teplice vs Slavia Praha part of?
Teplice vs Slavia Praha is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Teplice vs Slavia Praha?
Our statistical model gives Teplice a 27% chance of winning, Slavia Praha a 41% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Slavia Praha the favourite.
Will both teams score in Teplice vs Slavia Praha?
Our model estimates a 35% probability that both Teplice and Slavia Praha will score (BTTS).
Will Teplice vs Slavia Praha have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 28%.
What is the head-to-head record between Teplice and Slavia Praha?
Record (4 meetings): Teplice 0W | Draws 1 | Slavia Praha 3W.
What form are Teplice and Slavia Praha in?
Teplice (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-L-L-W-D. Slavia Praha (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-D-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Teplice's attacking strength (0.67x league average) is weighed against Slavia Praha's defensive record (0.66x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.78. Flip it around — Slavia Praha's attack (1.08x) against Teplice's defence (0.80x) — and the away total comes out at 1.05.
These ratings are built from 39/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 17.8%. Close behind: 0-1 (15.1%), 1-1 (14.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 48% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Slavia Praha Win
27%
3.73
32%
3.11
41%
2.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
16.8%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
16.1%
Draw
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.78
Teplice xG
Total xG
1.83
1.05
Slavia Praha xG
3.73
27%
Home win
3.11
32%
Draw
2.44
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
55%
Over 1.5
1.82
45%
Under 1.5
2.22
28%
Over 2.5
3.57
72%
Under 2.5
1.39
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
35%
BTTS Yes
2.84
65%
BTTS No
1.54
Clean Sheet
35%
2.85
46%
2.19
Win to Nil
9%
10.62
19%
5.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.1 | 16.8 | 8.8 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.6 | 13.2 | 6.9 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 5.1 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Teplice vs Slavia Praha?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.8%.
How many goals are Teplice and Slavia Praha expected to score?
The model projects 0.78 expected goals for Teplice and 1.05 for Slavia Praha, a combined total of 1.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Teplice vs Slavia Praha?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 44 outings, Teplice have picked up 1.23 PPG on a 14W 12D 18L record — D-L-L-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Teplice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Slavia Praha's form line: 31W 8D 5L from 44 games, 2.30 PPG, last five W-D-W-W-D. The sample for Slavia Praha is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Slavia Praha are the form team by 1.07 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Teplice.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Teplice have posted 1.52 PPG from 21 outings (8W 8D 5L).
On the road, Slavia Praha have gone 10W 6D 5L from 21 away games — 1.71 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 2.30 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Slavia Praha's season.
Attack vs Defence
Teplice are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game recently; Slavia Praha are on 2.61 scored and 0.82 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Teplice have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games.
Defensively: Slavia Praha in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 44 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Teplice
Blended
Slavia Praha
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Teplice and Slavia Praha in coming into this match?
Teplice have gone 14W 12D 18L in their last 44 games (1.23 PPG), while Slavia Praha have gone 31W 8D 5L in their last 44 (2.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Teplice at home or Slavia Praha away?
Slavia Praha's away record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Teplice at home: 1.52 PPG; Slavia Praha away: 1.71 PPG.
Have Teplice or Slavia Praha been keeping clean sheets recently?
Teplice have kept a clean sheet in 18% of their recent games, Slavia Praha in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 5 December 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Slavia Praha go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Slavia Praha won 6-0 on 31 Aug 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Teplice have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Slavia Praha — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Teplice
2
Draws
7
Slavia Praha
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Teplice and Slavia Praha?
From 10 meetings on record, Teplice have won 1, Slavia Praha have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Teplice and Slavia Praha last play each other?
They last met on 5 December 2025, when Teplice 1-2 Slavia Praha.
Who has won more matches between Teplice and Slavia Praha?
Slavia Praha have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Teplice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Slavia Praha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Teplice 57%, Slavia Praha 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Teplice) and 48% (Slavia Praha).
On the defensive side: Teplice have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Teplice home games / Slavia Praha away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Teplice play Slavia Praha?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Teplice's recent matches and 52% of Slavia Praha's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Teplice vs Slavia Praha usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Teplice's recent games and 48% of Slavia Praha's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Teplice and Slavia Praha tend to score early?
Teplice have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Slavia Praha in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Teplice's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech, Regular Season - 10, as Teplice and Slavia Praha drew 0-0 in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Teplice 0.78 xG and Slavia Praha 1.05 xG, a combined 1.83. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Slavia Praha landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Teplice attack 0.67 / defence 0.80 against Slavia Praha attack 1.08 / defence 0.66, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Teplice 27% | Draw 32% | Slavia Praha 41%, with Slavia Praha to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 55% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Teplice 61%, Slavia Praha 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Teplice's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not.
Slavia Praha's trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Slavia Praha arrived the stronger side — 2.30 PPG against 1.23. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Teplice (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.19 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.19 average — tighter than their form line. Slavia Praha (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.81 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.19 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.