Mlada Boleslav 2-1 Bohemians 1905 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Mlada Boleslav at 61%, yet other data sources diverge — this Mlada Boleslav vs Bohemians 1905 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Bohemians 1905 make the trip to Lokotrans Aréna to face Mlada Boleslav in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 10. The match kicks off on Sunday 1 October 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Mlada Boleslav's overall Czech Liga record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: L D L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Mlada Boleslav, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Mlada Boleslav's home record at Lokotrans Aréna: 4W 5D 1L from 10 Czech Liga appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Bohemians 1905 (all games): 4W 1D 5L across 10 Czech Liga outings this term — 1.30 points per game. Last five: L W L D W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Bohemians 1905, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Czech Liga this season, Bohemians 1905 have posted 3W 1D 6L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.50 PPG for Mlada Boleslav against 1.30 for Bohemians 1905. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Mlada Boleslav lead 2W to 1W over the last 4 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 5.0 goals per game across 4 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Apr 2023, ended 0–4 with Bohemians 1905 winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Mlada Boleslav — key trading statistics (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
Bohemians 1905 — key trading statistics (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mlada Boleslav 58% versus Bohemians 1905 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mlada Boleslav 55% | Bohemians 1905 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mlada Boleslav 1.95 xG and Bohemians 1905 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mlada Boleslav attack 1.198 / defence 0.990 | Bohemians 1905 attack 0.775 / defence 0.914. League average goals — home 1.783 / away 1.209. Data: 38 Mlada Boleslav games / 39 Bohemians 1905 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mlada Boleslav 61% | Draw 21% | Bohemians 1905 17%. Fair-value odds: Mlada Boleslav 1.64 | Draw 4.76 | Bohemians 1905 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Mlada Boleslav (61%) — a 44pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.88. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.88 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Mlada Boleslav at 61% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.88 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game and H2H averaging 5.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. This conflicts with form data: Mlada Boleslav 50% | Bohemians 1905 30% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mlada Boleslav vs Bohemians 1905 | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Lokotrans Aréna • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Oct 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mlada Boleslav 61% | Draw 21% | Bohemians 1905 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 52% | xG Mlada Boleslav 1.95 / Bohemians 1905 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Mlada Boleslav attack 1.198 / def 0.990 | Bohemians 1905 attack 0.775 / def 0.914 | league avg home 1.783 / away 1.209 • Poisson stance: Mlada Boleslav (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.95
Mlada Boleslav xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Bohemians 1905 xG
52%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mlada Boleslav vs Bohemians 1905 kick off?
Mlada Boleslav vs Bohemians 1905 kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 1 October 2023 at Lokotrans Aréna.
What was the final score in Mlada Boleslav vs Bohemians 1905?
Mlada Boleslav 2 - 1 Bohemians 1905.
Where is Mlada Boleslav vs Bohemians 1905 being played?
The match is being played at Lokotrans Aréna.
What competition is Mlada Boleslav vs Bohemians 1905 part of?
Mlada Boleslav vs Bohemians 1905 is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Mlada Boleslav vs Bohemians 1905?
Our statistical model gives Mlada Boleslav a 61% chance of winning, Bohemians 1905 a 17% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Mlada Boleslav the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mlada Boleslav vs Bohemians 1905?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Mlada Boleslav and Bohemians 1905 will score (BTTS).
Will Mlada Boleslav vs Bohemians 1905 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mlada Boleslav and Bohemians 1905?
Record (4 meetings): Mlada Boleslav 2W | Draws 1 | Bohemians 1905 1W.
What form are Mlada Boleslav and Bohemians 1905 in?
Mlada Boleslav (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-L-W-W. Bohemians 1905 (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Mlada Boleslav's attack rating (1.20) and Bohemians 1905's defence rating (0.91), the model arrives at 1.95 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Bohemians 1905's attack (0.78x) against Mlada Boleslav's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 0.93.
These ratings are built from 38/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.5%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.7%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mlada Boleslav Win
61%
1.63
21%
4.66
17%
5.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
10.7%
Home win
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.95
Mlada Boleslav xG
Total xG
2.88
0.93
Bohemians 1905 xG
1.63
61%
Home win
4.66
21%
Draw
5.78
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
40%
2.53
14%
7.04
Win to Nil
24%
4.13
2%
40.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 5.2 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.0 | 10.2 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.7 | 9.9 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.0 | 6.5 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.4 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mlada Boleslav vs Bohemians 1905?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are Mlada Boleslav and Bohemians 1905 expected to score?
The model projects 1.95 expected goals for Mlada Boleslav and 0.93 for Bohemians 1905, a combined total of 2.88.
How confident is the prediction model for Mlada Boleslav vs Bohemians 1905?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Mlada Boleslav come into this having played 40 games, going 13W 13D 14L for 1.30 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-W-W. The sample for Mlada Boleslav is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Bohemians 1905 sit at 1.45 PPG from 40 outings (17W 7D 16L), a run that reads L-W-L-D-W across their last five. The sample for Bohemians 1905 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.30 PPG for Mlada Boleslav against 1.45 for Bohemians 1905. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Mlada Boleslav's home form reads 6W 10D 4L across 20 games on their own ground, a 1.40 PPG return.
Away from home, Bohemians 1905 have taken 1.45 points per game from 20 outings (9W 2D 9L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Mlada Boleslav are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Bohemians 1905 are on 1.42 scored and 1.62 conceded.
Last 40 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mlada Boleslav
Blended
Bohemians 1905
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mlada Boleslav and Bohemians 1905 in coming into this match?
Mlada Boleslav have gone 13W 13D 14L in their last 40 games (1.30 PPG), while Bohemians 1905 have gone 17W 7D 16L in their last 40 (1.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mlada Boleslav at home or Bohemians 1905 away?
Bohemians 1905's away record (1.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mlada Boleslav at home: 1.40 PPG; Bohemians 1905 away: 1.45 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 31 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bohemians 1905 won 4-0 on 16 Apr 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Mlada Boleslav have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Bohemians 1905 — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Mlada Boleslav
5
Draws
2
Bohemians 1905
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mlada Boleslav and Bohemians 1905?
From 10 meetings on record, Mlada Boleslav have won 3, Bohemians 1905 have won 2, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Mlada Boleslav and Bohemians 1905 last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2026, when Mlada Boleslav 2-2 Bohemians 1905.
Who has won more matches between Mlada Boleslav and Bohemians 1905?
Mlada Boleslav have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Mlada Boleslav are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Bohemians 1905 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mlada Boleslav 60%, Bohemians 1905 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Mlada Boleslav) and 60% (Bohemians 1905). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mlada Boleslav home games / Bohemians 1905 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mlada Boleslav play Bohemians 1905?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Mlada Boleslav's games and 50% of Bohemians 1905's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Mlada Boleslav vs Bohemians 1905 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Mlada Boleslav's matches and 60% of Bohemians 1905's.
Do Mlada Boleslav and Bohemians 1905 tend to score early?
Mlada Boleslav have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Bohemians 1905 in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Mlada Boleslav edge out Bohemians 1905 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mlada Boleslav beat Bohemians 1905 2-1 at Lokotrans Aréna, Regular Season - 10, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mlada Boleslav 1.95 xG and Bohemians 1905 0.93 xG, a combined 2.88. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mlada Boleslav attack 1.20 / defence 0.99 against Bohemians 1905 attack 0.78 / defence 0.91, drawn from 38/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mlada Boleslav 61% | Draw 21% | Bohemians 1905 17%, with Mlada Boleslav to win its most likely call at 61%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mlada Boleslav 55%, Bohemians 1905 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mlada Boleslav's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Bohemians 1905's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Mlada Boleslav 1.30 PPG, Bohemians 1905 1.45 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Mlada Boleslav win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.