Teplice 1-2 Bohemians 1905 – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Bohemians 1905 at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Teplice vs Bohemians 1905 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Pre-Match Analysis

Teplice and Bohemians 1905 meet at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 13. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 27 October 2024 at 12:00 UTC.

Current Form

Teplice's overall Czech Liga record this term: 3W 1D 6L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L L W D W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Teplice, so this record blends games from this season and last.

At home at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech, Teplice have gone 2W 2D 6L this season (10 games, 0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Bohemians 1905 (all games): 2W 4D 4L across 10 Czech Liga outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: D D L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Bohemians 1905, so this record blends games from this season and last.

On the road, Bohemians 1905 have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.00 vs 1.00 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.

The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Teplice register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Bohemians 1905 in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.

H2H History

Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 5 meetings: Teplice 1W, Bohemians 1905 2W, 2D.

The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Nov 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading

Teplice half-time and goal-timing data (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games).

Bohemians 1905 half-time and goal-timing data (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Teplice 53% versus Bohemians 1905 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Teplice 47% | Bohemians 1905 51%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Teplice 1.17 xG and Bohemians 1905 1.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Teplice attack 0.958 / defence 1.326 | Bohemians 1905 attack 1.021 / defence 0.894. League average goals — home 1.370 / away 1.279. Data: 41 Teplice games / 41 Bohemians 1905 games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Teplice 24% | Draw 28% | Bohemians 1905 48%. Fair-value odds: Teplice 4.17 | Draw 3.57 | Bohemians 1905 2.08. Bohemians 1905 hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.90. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.90 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Bohemians 1905 at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bohemians 1905 if the outright odds are short.

Poisson projects 2.90 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Teplice 70% | Bohemians 1905 70% BTTS from recent games.

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