Slovan Liberec 4-1 Slovácko – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Slovan Liberec at 45% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Slovan Liberec face Slovácko.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Slovan Liberec host Slovácko at Stadion u Nisy in Czech Liga (matchday 27). Kick-off is Saturday 6 April 2024 at 15:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Slovan Liberec stand at 4W 2D 4L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D L W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Slovan Liberec at home: 6W 2D 2L from their last 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Slovan Liberec are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Slovácko — last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W L D L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.60. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
Slovácko away from home: 4W 2D 4L from their last 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Slovan Liberec 1.40 PPG, Slovácko 1.10 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 4 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Slovan Liberec, 2 for Slovácko and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 28 Oct 2023, ended Slovan Liberec 1–1 Slovácko — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Slovan Liberec in-play and half-time data (last 60 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; of the 23 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 39%; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games).
Slovácko in-play and half-time data (last 60 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 44%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Slovan Liberec 58% versus Slovácko 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Slovan Liberec 57% | Slovácko 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Slovan Liberec 1.64 xG and Slovácko 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Slovan Liberec attack 1.158 / defence 1.019 | Slovácko attack 1.029 / defence 0.903. League average goals — home 1.564 / away 1.240. Data: built from Slovan Liberec's last 56 games and Slovácko's last 56.
Result probabilities: Slovan Liberec 45% | Draw 25% | Slovácko 30%. Fair-value odds: Slovan Liberec 2.23 | Draw 4.00 | Slovácko 3.33. Slovan Liberec hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS Yes probability 59% | Total xG 2.94. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.94 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 59% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Slovan Liberec are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Slovan Liberec offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.94 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Slovan Liberec's last 10 home games and Slovácko's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Slovan Liberec 50% (last 10 home games) | Slovácko 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Slovan Liberec vs Slovácko | Competition: Czech Liga, matchday 27 | Venue: Stadion u Nisy • Kick-off: Saturday 6 April 2024 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Slovan Liberec 45% | Draw 25% | Slovácko 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% (Under 44%) | BTTS Yes 59% (No 41%) | xG Slovan Liberec 1.64 / Slovácko 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: Slovan Liberec attack 1.158 / def 1.019 | Slovácko attack 1.029 / def 0.903 | league avg home 1.564 / away 1.240 • Poisson stance: Slovan Liberec (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.64
Slovan Liberec xG
Expected Goals
1.30
Slovácko xG
59%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Slovan Liberec vs Slovácko FAQs
What time does Slovan Liberec vs Slovácko kick off?
Slovan Liberec vs Slovácko kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 6 April 2024 at Stadion u Nisy.
What was the final score in Slovan Liberec vs Slovácko?
Slovan Liberec 4 - 1 Slovácko.
Where is Slovan Liberec vs Slovácko being played?
The match is being played at Stadion u Nisy.
What competition is Slovan Liberec vs Slovácko part of?
Slovan Liberec vs Slovácko is a Czech Liga fixture (matchday 27) (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Slovan Liberec vs Slovácko?
Our statistical model gives Slovan Liberec a 45% chance of winning, Slovácko a 30% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Slovan Liberec the favourite.
Will both teams score in Slovan Liberec vs Slovácko?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Slovan Liberec and Slovácko will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Slovan Liberec vs Slovácko have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Slovan Liberec's attack at 1.16x the league average against Slovácko's defence at 0.90x — combine the two and it projects 1.64 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Slovácko's attack versus Slovan Liberec's defence, projects 1.30 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Slovan Liberec's last 56 games and Slovácko's last 56 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-2 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Slovan Liberec Win
45%
2.23
25%
4.00
30%
3.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
1 – 0
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.64
Slovan Liberec xG
Total xG
2.94
1.30
Slovácko xG
2.23
45%
Home win
4.00
25%
Draw
3.33
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.44
Clean Sheet
27%
3.67
19%
5.13
Win to Nil
12%
8.17
6%
17.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 6.9 | 4.5 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 11.3 | 7.3 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 9.2 | 6.0 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 5.0 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Slovan Liberec vs Slovácko Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Slovan Liberec vs Slovácko?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Slovan Liberec and Slovácko expected to score?
The model projects 1.64 expected goals for Slovan Liberec and 1.30 for Slovácko, a combined total of 2.94.
How confident is the prediction model for Slovan Liberec vs Slovácko?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Slovan Liberec come into this having played 60 games, going 21W 16D 23L for 1.32 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-L-W.
On the other side, Slovácko sit at 1.47 PPG from 60 outings (24W 16D 20L), a run that reads L-W-L-D-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Slovan Liberec on 1.32 PPG, Slovácko on 1.47. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Slovan Liberec's home form reads 13W 7D 9L across their last 29 home games, a 1.59 PPG return.
Away from home, Slovácko have taken 1.31 points per game from their last 29 away games (10W 8D 11L).
The Goals Picture
Slovan Liberec are averaging 1.48 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Slovácko are on 1.22 scored and 1.27 conceded.
Last 60 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Slovan Liberec
Blended
Slovácko
Blended
Slovan Liberec (Home) vs Slovácko (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Slovan Liberec
Blended
Slovácko
Blended
❓ Slovan Liberec vs Slovácko Form FAQs
What form are Slovan Liberec and Slovácko in coming into this match?
Slovan Liberec have gone 21W 16D 23L in their last 60 games (1.32 PPG), while Slovácko have gone 24W 16D 20L in their last 60 (1.47 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Slovan Liberec at home or Slovácko away?
Slovan Liberec's home record (1.59 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Slovan Liberec at home: 1.59 PPG; Slovácko away: 1.31 PPG.
Have Slovan Liberec or Slovácko been keeping clean sheets recently?
Slovan Liberec have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Slovácko in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to April 2022. All of them came in Czech Liga. The most recent was as recently as 11 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 26 Oct 2024, when Slovan Liberec won Slovan Liberec 4-0 Slovácko.
Slovan Liberec's record when hosting Slovácko specifically: 3W 0D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Slovan Liberec
1
Draws
3
Slovácko
Recent Meetings
❓ Slovan Liberec vs Slovácko H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Slovan Liberec and Slovácko?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Slovan Liberec have won 6, Slovácko have won 3, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Slovan Liberec and Slovácko last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 11 October 2026: Slovan Liberec 0-2 Slovácko.
Who has won more matches between Slovan Liberec and Slovácko?
Slovan Liberec have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Slovan Liberec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 47% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Slovácko are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 30% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Slovan Liberec 55%, Slovácko 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (Slovan Liberec) and 48% (Slovácko).
On the defensive side: Slovan Liberec keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Slovácko in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Slovan Liberec home games / Slovácko away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Slovan Liberec vs Slovácko Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Slovan Liberec and Slovácko matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 55% of Slovan Liberec's recent matches and 48% of Slovácko's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Slovan Liberec and Slovácko matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 55% of Slovan Liberec's recent games and 48% of Slovácko's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Slovan Liberec and Slovácko matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 72% of Slovan Liberec's recent matches and 72% of Slovácko's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Slovan Liberec run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Slovácko.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Slovan Liberec beat Slovácko 4-1 at Stadion u Nisy, Regular Season - 27, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Slovan Liberec 1.64 xG and Slovácko 1.30 xG, a combined 2.94. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Slovan Liberec beat their projection by 2.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Slovan Liberec attack 1.16 / defence 1.02 against Slovácko attack 1.03 / defence 0.90, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Slovan Liberec 45% | Draw 25% | Slovácko 30%, with Slovan Liberec to win its most likely call at 45%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Slovan Liberec 57%, Slovácko 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Slovan Liberec's trading profile (60 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Slovácko's trading profile (60 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Slovan Liberec 1.32 PPG, Slovácko 1.47 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Slovan Liberec win broke the near-deadlock. Slovan Liberec (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.72 average — above their attacking norm. Slovácko (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.52 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.