Pardubice 1-1 České Budějovice – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Pardubice at 54% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Pardubice vs České Budějovice encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Full Analysis

CFIG Arena plays host to Pardubice versus České Budějovice in Czech Liga (matchday 27). Kick-off: Sunday 7 April 2024 at 15:00 UK time.

Form & Momentum

Pardubice have collected 1.30 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: L L L L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

Pardubice's home record over their last 10 home games: 1W 3D 6L (0.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.60 lags behind their overall 1.30 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.

České Budějovice (all games): 2W 2D 6L across their last 10 — 0.80 points per game. Last five: W L D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).

On the road, České Budějovice have gone 0W 2D 8L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.20 is notably below their overall 0.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

The form ledger tips toward Pardubice. A 0.50 PPG lead over České Budějovice (1.30 vs 0.80) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.

Head-to-Head

Neither side has dominated the 5 H2H matches in our data: 1 wins for Pardubice, 3 for České Budějovice and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral.

The 5 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.4 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 28 Oct 2023, ended Pardubice 1–0 České Budějovice — a Pardubice win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.4 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading

Pardubice half-time and goal-timing data (last 58 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.

České Budějovice half-time and goal-timing data (last 58 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pardubice 47% versus České Budějovice 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pardubice 40% | České Budějovice 64%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Pardubice 1.79 xG and České Budějovice 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pardubice attack 0.785 / defence 1.031 | České Budějovice attack 0.824 / defence 1.433. League average goals — home 1.592 / away 1.217. Pardubice's attack rating of 0.785 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.79. České Budějovice's defence rating of 1.433 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Pardubice's projected output up. Data: built from Pardubice's last 56 games and České Budějovice's last 56.

Result probabilities: Pardubice 54% | Draw 25% | České Budějovice 21%. Fair-value odds: Pardubice 1.84 | Draw 4.05 | České Budějovice 4.78. Pardubice hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS Yes probability 54% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 54% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Pardubice are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Pardubice if the outright odds are short.

Poisson projects 2.83 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 3.4 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Pardubice 50% (last 10 home games) | České Budějovice 60% (last 10 away games).

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights