Slovan Liberec 1-0 Bohemians 1905 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Slovan Liberec at 46% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Slovan Liberec vs Bohemians 1905 encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Slovan Liberec and Bohemians 1905 meet at Stadion u Nisy in Czech Liga, Middle Play-offs - Semi-finals. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 11 May 2025 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Slovan Liberec's overall Czech Liga record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: W W W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
In front of their own supporters this season, Slovan Liberec have posted 5W 2D 3L at Stadion u Nisy — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadion u Nisy. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Bohemians 1905 have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: D L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Bohemians 1905 away from home this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward Slovan Liberec. A 0.90 PPG lead over Bohemians 1905 (1.80 vs 0.90) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Slovan Liberec lead 1W to 3W over the last 7 encounters, with 3 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 4 May 2025, ended 1–4 with Bohemians 1905 winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Slovan Liberec goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (63 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Bohemians 1905 goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (63 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Slovan Liberec 51% versus Bohemians 1905 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Slovan Liberec 49% | Bohemians 1905 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Slovan Liberec 1.38 xG and Bohemians 1905 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Slovan Liberec attack 1.049 / defence 0.958 | Bohemians 1905 attack 0.854 / defence 0.966. League average goals — home 1.359 / away 1.203. Data: 60 Slovan Liberec games / 60 Bohemians 1905 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Slovan Liberec 46% | Draw 28% | Bohemians 1905 27%. Fair-value odds: Slovan Liberec 2.17 | Draw 3.57 | Bohemians 1905 3.70. Slovan Liberec hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.36. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.36 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
Bohemians 1905 lead the H2H ledger, but Slovan Liberec carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
The Poisson model's primary lean is Slovan Liberec at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Slovan Liberec if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.36 combined xG gives a 42% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. Form rates corroborate: Slovan Liberec 30% | Bohemians 1905 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Slovan Liberec vs Bohemians 1905 | Competition: Czech Liga, Middle Play-offs - Semi-finals | Venue: Stadion u Nisy • Kick-off: Sunday 11 May 2025, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Slovan Liberec 46% | Draw 28% | Bohemians 1905 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 47% | xG Slovan Liberec 1.38 / Bohemians 1905 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Slovan Liberec attack 1.049 / def 0.958 | Bohemians 1905 attack 0.854 / def 0.966 | league avg home 1.359 / away 1.203 • Poisson stance: Slovan Liberec (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Slovan Liberec xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Bohemians 1905 xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Slovan Liberec vs Bohemians 1905 kick off?
Slovan Liberec vs Bohemians 1905 kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 11 May 2025 at Stadion u Nisy.
What was the final score in Slovan Liberec vs Bohemians 1905?
Slovan Liberec 1 - 0 Bohemians 1905.
Where is Slovan Liberec vs Bohemians 1905 being played?
The match is being played at Stadion u Nisy.
What competition is Slovan Liberec vs Bohemians 1905 part of?
Slovan Liberec vs Bohemians 1905 is a Middle Play-offs - Semi-finals fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Slovan Liberec vs Bohemians 1905?
Our statistical model gives Slovan Liberec a 46% chance of winning, Bohemians 1905 a 27% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Slovan Liberec the favourite.
Will both teams score in Slovan Liberec vs Bohemians 1905?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Slovan Liberec and Bohemians 1905 will score (BTTS).
Will Slovan Liberec vs Bohemians 1905 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Slovan Liberec and Bohemians 1905?
Record (7 meetings): Slovan Liberec 1W | Draws 3 | Bohemians 1905 3W.
What form are Slovan Liberec and Bohemians 1905 in?
Slovan Liberec (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-L-L. Bohemians 1905 (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Slovan Liberec's attack at 1.05x the league average against Bohemians 1905's defence at 0.97x — combine the two and it projects 1.38 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Bohemians 1905's attack (0.85x) against Slovan Liberec's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 0.98.
These ratings are built from 60/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.3%), 0-0 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Slovan Liberec Win
46%
2.19
28%
3.62
27%
3.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
9.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Slovan Liberec xG
Total xG
2.36
0.98
Bohemians 1905 xG
2.19
46%
Home win
3.62
28%
Draw
3.75
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.13
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
37%
2.68
25%
3.96
Win to Nil
17%
5.85
7%
14.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.4 | 9.3 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.0 | 12.8 | 6.3 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 8.8 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Slovan Liberec vs Bohemians 1905?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Slovan Liberec and Bohemians 1905 expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Slovan Liberec and 0.98 for Bohemians 1905, a combined total of 2.36.
How confident is the prediction model for Slovan Liberec vs Bohemians 1905?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 63 outings, Slovan Liberec have picked up 1.30 PPG on a 21W 19D 23L record — W-W-W-L-L across the most recent five.
Bohemians 1905's form line: 16W 22D 25L from 63 games, 1.11 PPG, last five D-L-L-L-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.30 PPG for Slovan Liberec against 1.11 for Bohemians 1905. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Slovan Liberec have posted 1.67 PPG from 30 outings (14W 8D 8L).
On the road, Bohemians 1905 have gone 7W 10D 13L from 30 away games — 1.03 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Slovan Liberec come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Slovan Liberec are averaging 1.48 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Bohemians 1905 are on 1.06 scored and 1.41 conceded.
Last 63 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Slovan Liberec
Current Season
Bohemians 1905
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Slovan Liberec and Bohemians 1905 in coming into this match?
Slovan Liberec have gone 21W 19D 23L in their last 63 games (1.30 PPG), while Bohemians 1905 have gone 16W 22D 25L in their last 63 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Slovan Liberec at home or Bohemians 1905 away?
Slovan Liberec's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Slovan Liberec at home: 1.67 PPG; Bohemians 1905 away: 1.03 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 7 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bohemians 1905 won 4-1 on 4 May 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Slovan Liberec have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Bohemians 1905 — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Slovan Liberec
5
Draws
3
Bohemians 1905
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Slovan Liberec and Bohemians 1905?
From 10 meetings on record, Slovan Liberec have won 2, Bohemians 1905 have won 3, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Slovan Liberec and Bohemians 1905 last play each other?
They last met on 7 March 2026, when Bohemians 1905 0-0 Slovan Liberec.
Who has won more matches between Slovan Liberec and Bohemians 1905?
Bohemians 1905 have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Slovan Liberec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Bohemians 1905 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Slovan Liberec 43%, Bohemians 1905 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Slovan Liberec) and 50% (Bohemians 1905).
On the defensive side: Slovan Liberec keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Bohemians 1905 in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Slovan Liberec home games / Bohemians 1905 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Slovan Liberec play Bohemians 1905?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Slovan Liberec's recent matches and 57% of Bohemians 1905's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Slovan Liberec vs Bohemians 1905 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Slovan Liberec's recent games and 50% of Bohemians 1905's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Slovan Liberec and Bohemians 1905 tend to score early?
Slovan Liberec have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Bohemians 1905 in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Slovan Liberec edge out Bohemians 1905 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Slovan Liberec beat Bohemians 1905 1-0 at Stadion u Nisy, Middle Play-offs - Semi-finals, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Slovan Liberec 1.38 xG and Bohemians 1905 0.98 xG, a combined 2.36. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Bohemians 1905 landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Slovan Liberec attack 1.05 / defence 0.96 against Bohemians 1905 attack 0.85 / defence 0.97, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Slovan Liberec 46% | Draw 28% | Bohemians 1905 27%, with Slovan Liberec to win its most likely call at 46%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Slovan Liberec 49%, Bohemians 1905 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Slovan Liberec's trading profile (63 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not.
Bohemians 1905's trading profile (63 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Slovan Liberec 1.30 PPG, Bohemians 1905 1.11 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Slovan Liberec win broke the near-deadlock. Slovan Liberec (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line. Bohemians 1905 (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.03 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.