Slovácko 1-1 Pardubice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Slovácko at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Slovácko vs Pardubice encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Slovácko host Pardubice at Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 7 December 2024 at 12:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Slovácko stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W D L D W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Slovácko, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Slovácko at Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty.
Pardubice — All Games: 1W 4D 5L from 10 Czech Liga fixtures this season — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D W L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Pardubice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Pardubice away from home this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Slovácko are in the better shape of the two on current Czech Liga data — 0.70 PPG ahead (1.40 vs 0.70). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for Slovácko, 2 for Pardubice and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Aug 2024, ended 1–0 with Slovácko winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Slovácko trading profile (52 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Pardubice trading profile (52 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Slovácko 46% versus Pardubice 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Slovácko 46% | Pardubice 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Slovácko 1.15 xG and Pardubice 0.69 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Slovácko attack 0.764 / defence 0.786 | Pardubice attack 0.748 / defence 1.006. League average goals — home 1.494 / away 1.170. Slovácko's attack strength of 0.764 is below the league average — the 1.15 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Slovácko's defence rating of 0.786 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 47 Slovácko games / 47 Pardubice games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Slovácko 45% | Draw 35% | Pardubice 20%. Fair-value odds: Slovácko 2.22 | Draw 2.86 | Pardubice 5.00. Slovácko hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (35%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 28% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 1.84. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 72% probability — total xG of 1.84 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Slovácko as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 35% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Slovácko offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.84 combined xG gives a 28% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 36% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Slovácko 40% | Pardubice 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Slovácko vs Pardubice | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty • Kick-off: Saturday 7 Dec 2024, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Slovácko 45% | Draw 35% | Pardubice 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 28% | BTTS 36% | xG Slovácko 1.15 / Pardubice 0.69 • Poisson strength factors: Slovácko attack 0.764 / def 0.786 | Pardubice attack 0.748 / def 1.006 | league avg home 1.494 / away 1.170 • Poisson stance: Slovácko (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
Slovácko xG
Expected Goals
0.69
Pardubice xG
36%
BTTS
57%
Over 1.5
28%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Slovácko vs Pardubice kick off?
Slovácko vs Pardubice kicked off at 12:30 on Saturday 7 December 2024 at Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty.
What was the final score in Slovácko vs Pardubice?
Slovácko 1 - 1 Pardubice.
Where is Slovácko vs Pardubice being played?
The match is being played at Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty.
What competition is Slovácko vs Pardubice part of?
Slovácko vs Pardubice is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Slovácko vs Pardubice?
Our statistical model gives Slovácko a 45% chance of winning, Pardubice a 20% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Slovácko the favourite.
Will both teams score in Slovácko vs Pardubice?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Slovácko and Pardubice will score (BTTS).
Will Slovácko vs Pardubice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 28%.
What is the head-to-head record between Slovácko and Pardubice?
Record (5 meetings): Slovácko 3W | Draws 0 | Pardubice 2W.
What form are Slovácko and Pardubice in?
Slovácko (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-D-L-D-W. Pardubice (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Slovácko's attack at 0.76x the league average against Pardubice's defence at 1.01x — combine the two and it projects 1.15 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Pardubice's attack versus Slovácko's defence, projects 0.69 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 17.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (16.7%), 1-1 (14.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 48% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Slovácko Win
45%
2.24
35%
2.83
20%
5.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
18.3%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.9%
Draw
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
Slovácko xG
Total xG
1.84
0.69
Pardubice xG
2.24
45%
Home win
2.83
35%
Draw
5.00
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
55%
Over 1.5
1.82
45%
Under 1.5
2.22
28%
Over 2.5
3.57
72%
Under 2.5
1.39
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.78
64%
BTTS No
1.56
Clean Sheet
50%
1.99
32%
3.15
Win to Nil
22%
4.45
6%
15.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.9 | 11.0 | 3.8 | 0.9 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 18.3 | 12.6 | 4.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.5 | 7.2 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 4.0 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Slovácko vs Pardubice?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.6%.
How many goals are Slovácko and Pardubice expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Slovácko and 0.69 for Pardubice, a combined total of 1.84.
How confident is the prediction model for Slovácko vs Pardubice?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Slovácko come into this having played 52 games, going 18W 14D 20L for 1.31 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-D-W. The sample for Slovácko is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Pardubice sit at 1.02 PPG from 52 outings (14W 11D 27L), a run that reads D-W-L-D-D across their last five. The sample for Pardubice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Slovácko on 1.31 PPG, Pardubice on 1.02. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Slovácko's home form reads 9W 8D 8L across 25 games on their own ground, a 1.40 PPG return.
Away from home, Pardubice have taken 1.00 points per game from 25 outings (7W 4D 14L).
The Goals Picture
Slovácko are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Pardubice are on 1.04 scored and 1.37 conceded.
Last 52 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Slovácko
Blended
Pardubice
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Slovácko and Pardubice in coming into this match?
Slovácko have gone 18W 14D 20L in their last 52 games (1.31 PPG), while Pardubice have gone 14W 11D 27L in their last 52 (1.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Slovácko at home or Pardubice away?
Slovácko's home record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Slovácko at home: 1.40 PPG; Pardubice away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Slovácko or Pardubice been keeping clean sheets recently?
Slovácko have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Pardubice in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Slovácko and Pardubice runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 5 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Slovácko's record when hosting Pardubice specifically: 3W 2D 1L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Slovácko
3
Draws
2
Pardubice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Slovácko and Pardubice?
From 10 meetings on record, Slovácko have won 5, Pardubice have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Slovácko and Pardubice last play each other?
They last met on 5 September 2026, when Slovácko 0-0 Pardubice.
Who has won more matches between Slovácko and Pardubice?
Slovácko have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Slovácko are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Pardubice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Slovácko 48%, Pardubice 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Slovácko) and 48% (Pardubice).
On the defensive side: Slovácko keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Slovácko have failed to score in 28% of games; Pardubice in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Slovácko home games / Pardubice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Slovácko play Pardubice?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Slovácko's recent matches and 40% of Pardubice's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Slovácko vs Pardubice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Slovácko's recent games and 48% of Pardubice's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Slovácko and Pardubice tend to score early?
Slovácko have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Pardubice in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Slovácko and Pardubice share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Slovácko and Pardubice finished level at 1-1 at Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty, Regular Season - 18, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Slovácko 1.15 xG and Pardubice 0.69 xG, a combined 1.84. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Slovácko attack 0.76 / defence 0.79 against Pardubice attack 0.75 / defence 1.01, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Slovácko 45% | Draw 35% | Pardubice 20%, with Slovácko to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 57% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Slovácko 46%, Pardubice 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Slovácko's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Pardubice's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Slovácko 1.31 PPG, Pardubice 1.02 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.