Slavia Praha 5-1 Karviná – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Slavia Praha at 65% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Slavia Praha vs Karviná encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Slavia Praha and Karviná meet at Fortuna Arena in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 15. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 10 November 2024 at 17:30 UTC.
Form
Slavia Praha (all games): 9W 1D 0L across 10 Czech Liga fixtures this term — 2.80 PPG. Last five: W W W W D. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.40 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Slavia Praha, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Slavia Praha have posted 10W 0D 0L at Fortuna Arena — 3.00 PPG. They are averaging 3.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 8 clean sheets from 10 home games (80%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Fortuna Arena. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Karviná's overall Czech Liga record this term: 4W 4D 2L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: L D W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Karviná, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Czech Liga this season, Karviná have posted 5W 1D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward Slavia Praha. A 1.20 PPG lead over Karviná (2.80 vs 1.60) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Slavia Praha lead 2W to 1W over the last 4 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 4 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 18 Feb 2024, ended 3–0 with Slavia Praha winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Slavia Praha goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (48 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; they lead at the break 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time.
Karviná goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (48 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Slavia Praha 44% versus Karviná 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Slavia Praha 58% | Karviná 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Slavia Praha 2.09 xG and Karviná 0.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Slavia Praha attack 1.348 / defence 0.673 | Karviná attack 1.024 / defence 1.068. League average goals — home 1.452 / away 1.154. Slavia Praha carry an above-average attack strength of 1.348 — their λ of 2.09 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Slavia Praha's defence rating of 0.673 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 43 Slavia Praha games / 43 Karviná games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Slavia Praha 65% | Draw 24% | Karviná 11%. Fair-value odds: Slavia Praha 1.54 | Draw 4.17 | Karviná 9.09. The model has a clear lean to Slavia Praha (65%) — a 54pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.89. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.89 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Slavia Praha as the most likely outcome at 65% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.89 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Slavia Praha 20% | Karviná 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Slavia Praha vs Karviná | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Fortuna Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 10 Nov 2024, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Slavia Praha 65% | Draw 24% | Karviná 11% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 50% | xG Slavia Praha 2.09 / Karviná 0.80 • Poisson strength factors: Slavia Praha attack 1.348 / def 0.673 | Karviná attack 1.024 / def 1.068 | league avg home 1.452 / away 1.154 • Poisson stance: Slavia Praha (65%) — strong lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
2.09
Slavia Praha xG
Expected Goals
0.80
Karviná xG
50%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Slavia Praha vs Karviná kick off?
Slavia Praha vs Karviná kicked off at 17:30 on Sunday 10 November 2024 at Fortuna Arena.
What was the final score in Slavia Praha vs Karviná?
Slavia Praha 5 - 1 Karviná.
Where is Slavia Praha vs Karviná being played?
The match is being played at Fortuna Arena.
What competition is Slavia Praha vs Karviná part of?
Slavia Praha vs Karviná is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Slavia Praha vs Karviná?
Our statistical model gives Slavia Praha a 65% chance of winning, Karviná a 11% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Slavia Praha the favourite.
Will both teams score in Slavia Praha vs Karviná?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Slavia Praha and Karviná will score (BTTS).
Will Slavia Praha vs Karviná have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Slavia Praha and Karviná?
Record (4 meetings): Slavia Praha 2W | Draws 1 | Karviná 1W.
What form are Slavia Praha and Karviná in?
Slavia Praha (all comps): 9W-1D-0L in 10 | 2.80 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 0.40 | L5 W-W-W-W-D. Karviná (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-D-W-D-W.
What do the betting odds say about Slavia Praha vs Karviná?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Slavia Praha's attack at 1.35x the league average against Karviná's defence at 1.07x — combine the two and it projects 2.09 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Karviná's attack (1.02x) against Slavia Praha's defence (0.67x) — and the away total comes out at 0.80.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 12.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (10.5%), 1-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Slavia Praha Win
65%
1.53
24%
4.24
11%
9.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
12.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
11.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.09
Slavia Praha xG
Total xG
2.89
0.80
Karviná xG
1.53
65%
Home win
4.24
24%
Draw
9.03
11%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
45%
2.21
12%
8.09
Win to Nil
30%
3.39
1%
73.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 11.7 | 9.3 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.2 | 9.7 | 3.9 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 8.5 | 6.8 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 4.4 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Slavia Praha vs Karviná?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Slavia Praha and Karviná expected to score?
The model projects 2.09 expected goals for Slavia Praha and 0.80 for Karviná, a combined total of 2.89.
How confident is the prediction model for Slavia Praha vs Karviná?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 65%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 48 outings, Slavia Praha have picked up 2.50 PPG on a 37W 9D 2L record — W-W-W-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Slavia Praha is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Karviná's form line: 14W 12D 22L from 48 games, 1.12 PPG, last five L-D-W-D-W. The sample for Karviná is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Slavia Praha are the form team by 1.38 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Karviná.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Slavia Praha have posted 2.70 PPG from 23 outings (20W 2D 1L).
On the road, Karviná have gone 6W 5D 12L from 23 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Slavia Praha come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Slavia Praha are averaging 2.17 goals scored and 0.58 conceded per game recently; Karviná are on 1.04 scored and 1.54 conceded.
Defensively: Slavia Praha have kept a clean sheet in 54% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 48 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Slavia Praha
Blended
Karviná
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Slavia Praha and Karviná in coming into this match?
Slavia Praha have gone 37W 9D 2L in their last 48 games (2.50 PPG), while Karviná have gone 14W 12D 22L in their last 48 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Slavia Praha at home or Karviná away?
Slavia Praha's home record (2.70 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Slavia Praha at home: 2.70 PPG; Karviná away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Slavia Praha or Karviná been keeping clean sheets recently?
Slavia Praha have kept a clean sheet in 54% of their recent games, Karviná in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 14 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Slavia Praha have won the last 6 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Slavia Praha won 5-1 on 3 Sep 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Slavia Praha have gone 3W 0D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Karviná — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
6
Slavia Praha
1
Draws
1
Karviná
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Slavia Praha and Karviná?
From 8 meetings on record, Slavia Praha have won 6, Karviná have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Slavia Praha and Karviná last play each other?
They last met on 14 February 2026, when Karviná 1-3 Slavia Praha.
Who has won more matches between Slavia Praha and Karviná?
Slavia Praha have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Slavia Praha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 61% of the time.
Karviná are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Slavia Praha 39%, Karviná 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 74% for Slavia Praha and 56% for Karviná. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Slavia Praha keep a clean sheet in 61% of their matches; Karviná in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Slavia Praha home games / Karviná away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Slavia Praha play Karviná?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Slavia Praha's recent matches and 52% of Karviná's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Slavia Praha vs Karviná usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 74% of Slavia Praha's matches and 56% of Karviná's.
Do Slavia Praha and Karviná tend to score early?
Slavia Praha have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Karviná in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Slavia Praha run riot with a 5-1 hammering of Karviná.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Slavia Praha beat Karviná 5-1 at Fortuna Arena, Regular Season - 15, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Slavia Praha 2.09 xG and Karviná 0.80 xG, a combined 2.89. The scoreboard read 5-1 for 6 actual goals. Slavia Praha beat their projection by 2.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Slavia Praha attack 1.35 / defence 0.67 against Karviná attack 1.02 / defence 1.07, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Slavia Praha 65% | Draw 24% | Karviná 11%, with Slavia Praha to win its most likely call at 65%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Slavia Praha 58%, Karviná 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Slavia Praha's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time, and conceded here.
Karviná's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Slavia Praha arrived the stronger side — 2.50 PPG against 1.12. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Slavia Praha (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 2.70 average — above their attacking norm. Karviná (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.74 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.