Sigma Olomouc 2-1 Teplice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sigma Olomouc at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sigma Olomouc vs Teplice fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Teplice make the trip to Andrův stadion to face Sigma Olomouc in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 4. The match kicks off on Sunday 13 August 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Sigma Olomouc have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: L W L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Sigma Olomouc have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Sigma Olomouc have posted 3W 3D 4L at Andrův stadion — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Teplice's overall Czech Liga record this term: 5W 4D 1L from 10 games (1.90 PPG). Last five: D W W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Teplice have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Teplice have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Teplice are 0.50 PPG clear of Sigma Olomouc in recent Czech Liga fixtures (1.90 vs 1.40). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Sigma Olomouc register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Teplice in 80%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 4 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Sigma Olomouc, 2 for Teplice and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 4 previous contests averaged 1.5 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 22 Apr 2023, ended 1–2 with Teplice winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Sigma Olomouc goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (38 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).
Teplice goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (38 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Sigma Olomouc 55% and Teplice 66% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sigma Olomouc 55% | Teplice 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sigma Olomouc 1.77 xG and Teplice 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sigma Olomouc attack 1.077 / defence 1.076 | Teplice attack 1.089 / defence 0.969. League average goals — home 1.693 / away 1.224. Data: 33 Sigma Olomouc games / 33 Teplice games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Sigma Olomouc 44% | Draw 25% | Teplice 30%. Fair-value odds: Sigma Olomouc 2.27 | Draw 4.00 | Teplice 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.20. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.20 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.77 / 1.43) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Sigma Olomouc as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Teplice (1.90 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sigma Olomouc if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.20 combined xG gives a 62% probability to Over 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.5 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 64%. Form rates corroborate: Sigma Olomouc 70% | Teplice 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (33 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sigma Olomouc vs Teplice | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Andrův stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Aug 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sigma Olomouc 44% | Draw 25% | Teplice 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 64% | xG Sigma Olomouc 1.77 / Teplice 1.43 • Poisson strength factors: Sigma Olomouc attack 1.077 / def 1.076 | Teplice attack 1.089 / def 0.969 | league avg home 1.693 / away 1.224 • Poisson stance: Sigma Olomouc (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.77
Sigma Olomouc xG
Expected Goals
1.43
Teplice xG
64%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sigma Olomouc vs Teplice kick off?
Sigma Olomouc vs Teplice kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 13 August 2023 at Andrův stadion.
What was the final score in Sigma Olomouc vs Teplice?
Sigma Olomouc 2 - 1 Teplice.
Where is Sigma Olomouc vs Teplice being played?
The match is being played at Andrův stadion.
What competition is Sigma Olomouc vs Teplice part of?
Sigma Olomouc vs Teplice is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Sigma Olomouc vs Teplice?
Our statistical model gives Sigma Olomouc a 44% chance of winning, Teplice a 30% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Sigma Olomouc the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sigma Olomouc vs Teplice?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Sigma Olomouc and Teplice will score (BTTS).
Will Sigma Olomouc vs Teplice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sigma Olomouc and Teplice?
Record (4 meetings): Sigma Olomouc 0W | Draws 2 | Teplice 2W.
What form are Sigma Olomouc and Teplice in?
Sigma Olomouc (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-L-W-W. Teplice (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Sigma Olomouc's attack at 1.08x the league average against Teplice's defence at 0.97x — combine the two and it projects 1.77 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Teplice's attack (1.09x) against Sigma Olomouc's defence (1.08x) — and the away total comes out at 1.43.
The sample (33/33 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-2 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sigma Olomouc Win
44%
2.25
25%
3.94
30%
3.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
1 – 2
7.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.77
Sigma Olomouc xG
Total xG
3.20
1.43
Teplice xG
2.25
44%
Home win
3.94
25%
Draw
3.30
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.56
36%
BTTS No
2.80
Clean Sheet
24%
4.20
17%
5.85
Win to Nil
11%
9.46
5%
19.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 5.8 | 4.2 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 10.3 | 7.4 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 9.1 | 6.5 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 5.4 | 3.8 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.4 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sigma Olomouc vs Teplice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are Sigma Olomouc and Teplice expected to score?
The model projects 1.77 expected goals for Sigma Olomouc and 1.43 for Teplice, a combined total of 3.20.
How confident is the prediction model for Sigma Olomouc vs Teplice?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Sigma Olomouc's recent record stands at 14W 12D 12L from 38 games, a 1.42 PPG return, with L-W-L-W-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Sigma Olomouc, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Teplice, meanwhile, have gone 13W 10D 15L across 38 games — 1.29 PPG, with D-W-W-W-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Teplice, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.42 PPG for Sigma Olomouc against 1.29 for Teplice. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Sigma Olomouc have managed 6W 5D 7L from 18 games — 1.28 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Teplice's away record stands at 5W 2D 11L across 18 trips, a 0.94 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sigma Olomouc are averaging 1.53 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Teplice are on 1.26 scored and 1.79 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Teplice in 66%.
Last 38 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sigma Olomouc
Early Season
Teplice
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sigma Olomouc and Teplice in coming into this match?
Sigma Olomouc have gone 14W 12D 12L in their last 38 games (1.42 PPG), while Teplice have gone 13W 10D 15L in their last 38 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sigma Olomouc at home or Teplice away?
Sigma Olomouc's home record (1.28 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sigma Olomouc at home: 1.28 PPG; Teplice away: 0.94 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 22 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sigma Olomouc have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Teplice — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Sigma Olomouc
3
Draws
4
Teplice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sigma Olomouc and Teplice?
From 10 meetings on record, Sigma Olomouc have won 3, Teplice have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Sigma Olomouc and Teplice last play each other?
They last met on 22 February 2026, when Teplice 1-3 Sigma Olomouc.
Who has won more matches between Sigma Olomouc and Teplice?
Teplice have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sigma Olomouc are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Teplice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 67% for Sigma Olomouc, 72% for Teplice — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Sigma Olomouc and 83% for Teplice. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 39% and 39% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sigma Olomouc home games / Teplice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sigma Olomouc play Teplice?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Sigma Olomouc's games and 72% of Teplice's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sigma Olomouc vs Teplice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Sigma Olomouc's matches and 83% of Teplice's.
Do Sigma Olomouc and Teplice tend to score early?
Sigma Olomouc have had a goal before half-time in 89% of their recent matches, Teplice in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Sigma Olomouc edge out Teplice 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sigma Olomouc beat Teplice 2-1 at Andrův stadion, Regular Season - 4, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sigma Olomouc 1.77 xG and Teplice 1.43 xG, a combined 3.20. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sigma Olomouc attack 1.08 / defence 1.08 against Teplice attack 1.09 / defence 0.97, drawn from 33/33 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Sigma Olomouc 44% | Draw 25% | Teplice 30%, with Sigma Olomouc to win its most likely call at 44%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sigma Olomouc 55%, Teplice 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sigma Olomouc's trading profile (38 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Teplice's trading profile (38 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sigma Olomouc 1.42 PPG, Teplice 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sigma Olomouc win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.