Pardubice 2-1 Karviná – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Pardubice at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Pardubice vs Karviná fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Pardubice and Karviná meet at CFIG Arena in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 4. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 13 August 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Pardubice's overall Czech Liga record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: W D L D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Pardubice have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Pardubice's home record at CFIG Arena: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Czech Liga appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Karviná have collected 1.00 PPG across 3 Czech Liga outings this season: 1W 0D 2L. Last five: W L L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Karviná have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.40 PPG for Pardubice against 1.00 for Karviná. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Pardubice lead 1W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 7 May 2022, ended 2–0 with Pardubice winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Pardubice half-time and goal-timing data (3 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they fail to score in 67% of games.
Karviná half-time and goal-timing data (3 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games; Over 3.5 in 67%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Pardubice 33% and Karviná 100% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Pardubice 33% | Karviná 100%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pardubice 1.51 xG and Karviná 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pardubice attack 0.705 / defence 0.858 | Karviná attack 0.833 / defence 1.269. League average goals — home 1.693 / away 1.224. Pardubice's attack strength of 0.705 is below the league average — the 1.51 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Karviná bring a strong defensive rating of 1.269 — this is suppressing Pardubice's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 33 Pardubice games / 3 Karviná games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Pardubice 51% | Draw 29% | Karviná 20%. Fair-value odds: Pardubice 1.96 | Draw 3.45 | Karviná 5.00. Pardubice hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Pardubice are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Pardubice if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.39 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Pardubice 40% | Karviná 100% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (3 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pardubice vs Karviná | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: CFIG Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Aug 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pardubice 51% | Draw 29% | Karviná 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 47% | xG Pardubice 1.51 / Karviná 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: Pardubice attack 0.705 / def 0.858 | Karviná attack 0.833 / def 1.269 | league avg home 1.693 / away 1.224 • Poisson stance: Pardubice (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
Pardubice xG
Expected Goals
0.88
Karviná xG
47%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pardubice vs Karviná kick off?
Pardubice vs Karviná kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 13 August 2023 at CFIG Arena.
What was the final score in Pardubice vs Karviná?
Pardubice 2 - 1 Karviná.
Where is Pardubice vs Karviná being played?
The match is being played at CFIG Arena.
What competition is Pardubice vs Karviná part of?
Pardubice vs Karviná is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Pardubice vs Karviná?
Our statistical model gives Pardubice a 51% chance of winning, Karviná a 20% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Pardubice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pardubice vs Karviná?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Pardubice and Karviná will score (BTTS).
Will Pardubice vs Karviná have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pardubice and Karviná?
Record (1 meetings): Pardubice 1W | Draws 0 | Karviná 0W.
What form are Pardubice and Karviná in?
Pardubice (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-L-D-L. Karviná (all comps): 1W-0D-2L in 3 | 1.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Pardubice's attack at 0.70x the league average against Karviná's defence at 1.27x — combine the two and it projects 1.51 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Karviná's attack (0.83x) against Pardubice's defence (0.86x) — and the away total comes out at 0.88.
The sample (33/3 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.3%), 0-0 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pardubice Win
51%
1.96
29%
3.49
20%
4.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
2 – 0
10.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
Pardubice xG
Total xG
2.39
0.88
Karviná xG
1.96
51%
Home win
3.49
29%
Draw
4.89
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.14
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
42%
2.40
22%
4.54
Win to Nil
21%
4.71
4%
22.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 8.0 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.9 | 12.2 | 5.3 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.5 | 9.2 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 5.3 | 4.6 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pardubice vs Karviná?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Pardubice and Karviná expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Pardubice and 0.88 for Karviná, a combined total of 2.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Pardubice vs Karviná?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Pardubice come into this having played 3 games, going 0W 1D 2L for 0.33 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L. It's still early in the season for Pardubice, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Karviná sit at 1.00 PPG from 3 outings (1W 0D 2L), a run that reads W-L-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Karviná, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Karviná carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.67 PPG clear of Pardubice — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Attack vs Defence
Pardubice are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Karviná are on 2.00 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Karviná in 100%.
Last 3 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pardubice
Early Season
Karviná
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pardubice and Karviná in coming into this match?
Pardubice have gone 0W 1D 2L in their last 3 games (0.33 PPG), while Karviná have gone 1W 0D 2L in their last 3 (1.00 PPG).
Have Pardubice or Karviná been keeping clean sheets recently?
Pardubice have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Karviná in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 10 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Pardubice won 4-0 on 19 May 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Pardubice have gone 4W 0D 2L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Karviná — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Pardubice
0
Draws
3
Karviná
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pardubice and Karviná?
From 10 meetings on record, Pardubice have won 7, Karviná have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Pardubice and Karviná last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when Pardubice 1-3 Karviná.
Who has won more matches between Pardubice and Karviná?
Pardubice have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Pardubice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Karviná are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 33% for Pardubice, 100% for Karviná — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 33% for Pardubice and 100% for Karviná. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 67% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Pardubice keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Pardubice have failed to score in 67% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pardubice home games / Karviná away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pardubice play Karviná?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 33% of Pardubice's games and 100% of Karviná's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Pardubice vs Karviná usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 33% of Pardubice's matches and 100% of Karviná's.
Do Pardubice and Karviná tend to score early?
Pardubice have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Karviná in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Pardubice edge out Karviná 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pardubice beat Karviná 2-1 at CFIG Arena, Regular Season - 4, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pardubice 1.51 xG and Karviná 0.88 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pardubice attack 0.70 / defence 0.86 against Karviná attack 0.83 / defence 1.27, drawn from 33/3 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Pardubice 51% | Draw 29% | Karviná 20%, with Pardubice to win its most likely call at 51%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pardubice 33%, Karviná 100%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pardubice's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Karviná's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 100% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Karviná arrived the stronger side — 1.00 PPG against 0.33. Form was overturned, with Pardubice winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Pardubice scored 2 against a 0.67 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line. Karviná managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.