Sigma Olomouc 0-0 Slavia Praha – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 41% as Sigma Olomouc take on Slavia Praha.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Sigma Olomouc and Slavia Praha meet at Andruv stadion in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 13. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 26 October 2025 at 12:00 UTC.
Current Form
Sigma Olomouc's overall Czech Liga record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: L D D W D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Sigma Olomouc, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sigma Olomouc's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at Andruv stadion this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Andruv stadion. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Slavia Praha (all games): 6W 4D 0L across 10 Czech Liga outings this term — 2.20 points per game. Last five: W D W D D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.60. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Slavia Praha, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Czech Liga this season, Slavia Praha have posted 5W 4D 1L from 10 away outings — 1.90 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Slavia Praha arrive in superior form — a 0.70 PPG advantage (2.20 vs 1.50) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head ledger leans to Slavia Praha, who have claimed 6 wins from 8 meetings compared to 1 for the hosts, with 1 draws.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.6 goals per game across 8 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Apr 2025, ended 0–5 with Slavia Praha winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Slavia Praha have won 6 of 8 previous encounters, and at 3.6 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Data
Sigma Olomouc goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (home games).
Slavia Praha goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; they lead at the break 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 57% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sigma Olomouc 55% versus Slavia Praha 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sigma Olomouc 55% | Slavia Praha 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sigma Olomouc 0.96 xG and Slavia Praha 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sigma Olomouc attack 1.013 / defence 0.650 | Slavia Praha attack 1.116 / defence 0.808. League average goals — home 1.173 / away 1.174. Sigma Olomouc's defence rating of 0.650 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 42 Sigma Olomouc games / 42 Slavia Praha games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sigma Olomouc 33% | Draw 41% | Slavia Praha 27%. Fair-value odds: Sigma Olomouc 3.03 | Draw 2.44 | Slavia Praha 3.70. The draw (41%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 27% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.81. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 73% probability — total xG of 1.81 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 41% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 33% and away win at 27% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.81 combined xG gives a 27% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.6 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 39%. Form rates corroborate: Sigma Olomouc 30% | Slavia Praha 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sigma Olomouc vs Slavia Praha | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Andruv stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Oct 2025, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sigma Olomouc 33% | Draw 41% | Slavia Praha 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 27% | BTTS 39% | xG Sigma Olomouc 0.96 / Slavia Praha 0.85 • Poisson strength factors: Sigma Olomouc attack 1.013 / def 0.650 | Slavia Praha attack 1.116 / def 0.808 | league avg home 1.173 / away 1.174 • Poisson stance: Draw (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.96
Sigma Olomouc xG
Expected Goals
0.85
Slavia Praha xG
39%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
27%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sigma Olomouc vs Slavia Praha kick off?
Sigma Olomouc vs Slavia Praha kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 26 October 2025 at Andruv stadion.
What was the final score in Sigma Olomouc vs Slavia Praha?
Sigma Olomouc 0 - 0 Slavia Praha.
Where is Sigma Olomouc vs Slavia Praha being played?
The match is being played at Andruv stadion.
What competition is Sigma Olomouc vs Slavia Praha part of?
Sigma Olomouc vs Slavia Praha is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Sigma Olomouc vs Slavia Praha?
Our statistical model gives Sigma Olomouc a 33% chance of winning, Slavia Praha a 27% chance, and a 41% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Sigma Olomouc vs Slavia Praha?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Sigma Olomouc and Slavia Praha will score (BTTS).
Will Sigma Olomouc vs Slavia Praha have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 27%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sigma Olomouc and Slavia Praha?
Record (8 meetings): Sigma Olomouc 1W | Draws 1 | Slavia Praha 6W.
What form are Sigma Olomouc and Slavia Praha in?
Sigma Olomouc (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.70 | L5 L-D-D-W-D. Slavia Praha (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-D-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Sigma Olomouc's attacking strength (1.01x league average) is weighed against Slavia Praha's defensive record (0.81x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.96. Flip it around — Slavia Praha's attack (1.12x) against Sigma Olomouc's defence (0.65x) — and the away total comes out at 0.85.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 18.1%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 1-0 (13.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
33%
3.06
41%
2.46
27%
3.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
16.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
15.7%
Home win
0 – 1
13.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.96
Sigma Olomouc xG
Total xG
1.81
0.85
Slavia Praha xG
3.06
33%
Home win
2.46
41%
Draw
3.74
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
54%
Over 1.5
1.85
46%
Under 1.5
2.17
27%
Over 2.5
3.70
73%
Under 2.5
1.37
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.54
61%
BTTS No
1.65
Clean Sheet
43%
2.34
38%
2.61
Win to Nil
14%
7.18
10%
9.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.3 | 13.9 | 5.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.7 | 13.4 | 5.7 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 6.4 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.4 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sigma Olomouc vs Slavia Praha?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.1%.
How many goals are Sigma Olomouc and Slavia Praha expected to score?
The model projects 0.96 expected goals for Sigma Olomouc and 0.85 for Slavia Praha, a combined total of 1.81.
How confident is the prediction model for Sigma Olomouc vs Slavia Praha?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Sigma Olomouc's recent record stands at 17W 13D 17L from 47 games, a 1.36 PPG return, with L-D-D-W-D in the last five. The sample for Sigma Olomouc is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Slavia Praha, meanwhile, have gone 36W 8D 3L across 47 games — 2.47 PPG, with W-D-W-D-D in their last five. The sample for Slavia Praha is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Slavia Praha by 1.11 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Sigma Olomouc heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Sigma Olomouc have managed 11W 4D 8L from 23 games — 1.61 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Slavia Praha's away record stands at 14W 6D 3L across 23 trips, a 2.09 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Slavia Praha come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sigma Olomouc are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; Slavia Praha are on 2.11 scored and 0.55 conceded.
Defensively: Slavia Praha in 57% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 47 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sigma Olomouc
Blended
Slavia Praha
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sigma Olomouc and Slavia Praha in coming into this match?
Sigma Olomouc have gone 17W 13D 17L in their last 47 games (1.36 PPG), while Slavia Praha have gone 36W 8D 3L in their last 47 (2.47 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sigma Olomouc at home or Slavia Praha away?
Slavia Praha's away record (2.09 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sigma Olomouc at home: 1.61 PPG; Slavia Praha away: 2.09 PPG.
Have Sigma Olomouc or Slavia Praha been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sigma Olomouc have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Slavia Praha in 57%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 25 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Slavia Praha won 0-5 on 26 Apr 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sigma Olomouc have gone 1W 1D 4L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Slavia Praha — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Sigma Olomouc
2
Draws
7
Slavia Praha
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sigma Olomouc and Slavia Praha?
From 10 meetings on record, Sigma Olomouc have won 1, Slavia Praha have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Sigma Olomouc and Slavia Praha last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2026, when Slavia Praha 2-1 Sigma Olomouc.
Who has won more matches between Sigma Olomouc and Slavia Praha?
Slavia Praha have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sigma Olomouc are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Slavia Praha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sigma Olomouc 61%, Slavia Praha 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 74% (Sigma Olomouc) and 39% (Slavia Praha). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 26% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sigma Olomouc keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Slavia Praha in 52%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sigma Olomouc home games / Slavia Praha away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sigma Olomouc play Slavia Praha?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 61% of Sigma Olomouc's recent matches and 39% of Slavia Praha's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sigma Olomouc vs Slavia Praha usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 74% of Sigma Olomouc's matches and 39% of Slavia Praha's.
Do Sigma Olomouc and Slavia Praha tend to score early?
Sigma Olomouc have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Slavia Praha in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Sigma Olomouc's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Andruv stadion, Regular Season - 13, as Sigma Olomouc and Slavia Praha drew 0-0 in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sigma Olomouc 0.96 xG and Slavia Praha 0.85 xG, a combined 1.81. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Sigma Olomouc fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Slavia Praha landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sigma Olomouc attack 1.01 / defence 0.65 against Slavia Praha attack 1.12 / defence 0.81, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sigma Olomouc 33% | Draw 41% | Slavia Praha 27%, with the draw its most likely call at 41%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 27%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 58% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sigma Olomouc 55%, Slavia Praha 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sigma Olomouc's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Slavia Praha's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 57% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Slavia Praha arrived the stronger side — 2.47 PPG against 1.36. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Sigma Olomouc (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.43 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.35 average — tighter than their form line. Slavia Praha (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.83 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.