Hradec Králové 1-0 Dukla Praha – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Hradec Králové at 60% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Hradec Králové vs Dukla Praha encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Dukla Praha make the trip to Malšovická Aréna to face Hradec Králové in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 5. The match kicks off on Saturday 17 August 2024 at 13:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Hradec Králové have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 6W 0D 4L. Last five: L W L W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Hradec Králové have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Hradec Králové's form when playing at home: 7W 2D 1L across 10 games at Malšovická Aréna this term (2.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Malšovická Aréna.
Dukla Praha's overall Czech Liga record this term: 1W 0D 3L from 4 games (0.75 PPG). Last five: L W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.75 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 4 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in only 25% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. Dukla Praha have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The points-per-game gap of 1.05 in Hradec Králové's favour (1.80 vs 0.75) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Trading
Hradec Králové half-time and goal-timing data (4 games): they score before half-time in 25% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games; they fail to score in 50% of games.
Dukla Praha half-time and goal-timing data (4 games): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games; they fail to score in 50% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Hradec Králové 25% | Dukla Praha 25%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Hradec Králové 25% | Dukla Praha 25%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hradec Králové 1.64 xG and Dukla Praha 0.69 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hradec Králové attack 0.993 / defence 0.908 | Dukla Praha attack 0.733 / defence 1.161. League average goals — home 1.426 / away 1.033. Data: 34 Hradec Králové games / 4 Dukla Praha games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hradec Králové 60% | Draw 24% | Dukla Praha 15%. Fair-value odds: Hradec Králové 1.67 | Draw 4.17 | Dukla Praha 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Hradec Králové (60%) — a 45pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.33. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.33 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Hradec Králové as the most likely outcome at 60% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.33 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 41% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 40% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Hradec Králové 50% | Dukla Praha 25% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hradec Králové vs Dukla Praha | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Malšovická Aréna • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Aug 2024, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hradec Králové 60% | Draw 24% | Dukla Praha 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 40% | xG Hradec Králové 1.64 / Dukla Praha 0.69 • Poisson strength factors: Hradec Králové attack 0.993 / def 0.908 | Dukla Praha attack 0.733 / def 1.161 | league avg home 1.426 / away 1.033 • Poisson stance: Hradec Králové (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.64
Hradec Králové xG
Expected Goals
0.69
Dukla Praha xG
40%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hradec Králové vs Dukla Praha kick off?
Hradec Králové vs Dukla Praha kicked off at 13:30 on Saturday 17 August 2024 at Malšovická Aréna.
What was the final score in Hradec Králové vs Dukla Praha?
Hradec Králové 1 - 0 Dukla Praha.
Where is Hradec Králové vs Dukla Praha being played?
The match is being played at Malšovická Aréna.
What competition is Hradec Králové vs Dukla Praha part of?
Hradec Králové vs Dukla Praha is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Hradec Králové vs Dukla Praha?
Our statistical model gives Hradec Králové a 60% chance of winning, Dukla Praha a 15% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Hradec Králové the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hradec Králové vs Dukla Praha?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Hradec Králové and Dukla Praha will score (BTTS).
Will Hradec Králové vs Dukla Praha have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hradec Králové and Dukla Praha?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Hradec Králové and Dukla Praha in?
Hradec Králové (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-L-W-L. Dukla Praha (all comps): 1W-0D-3L in 4 | 0.75 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.75 | L5 L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Hradec Králové's attacking strength (0.99x league average) is weighed against Dukla Praha's defensive record (1.16x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.64. Flip it around — Dukla Praha's attack (0.73x) against Hradec Králové's defence (0.91x) — and the away total comes out at 0.69.
These ratings are built from 34/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 14.5%. Close behind: 2-0 (13.1%), 1-1 (12.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hradec Králové Win
60%
1.66
24%
4.13
15%
6.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.0%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
13.1%
Home win
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.64
Hradec Králové xG
Total xG
2.33
0.69
Dukla Praha xG
1.66
60%
Home win
4.13
24%
Draw
6.51
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.49
60%
BTTS No
1.67
Clean Sheet
50%
1.99
19%
5.18
Win to Nil
30%
3.29
3%
33.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.7 | 6.7 | 2.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 16.0 | 11.0 | 3.8 | 0.9 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.1 | 9.0 | 3.1 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 7.2 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hradec Králové vs Dukla Praha?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Hradec Králové and Dukla Praha expected to score?
The model projects 1.64 expected goals for Hradec Králové and 0.69 for Dukla Praha, a combined total of 2.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Hradec Králové vs Dukla Praha?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 4 outings, Hradec Králové have picked up 1.50 PPG on a 2W 0D 2L record — W-L-W-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Hradec Králové, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Dukla Praha's form line: 1W 0D 3L from 4 games, 0.75 PPG, last five L-W-L-L. It's still early in the season for Dukla Praha, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Hradec Králové are the form team by 0.75 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Dukla Praha.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Hradec Králové are averaging 0.75 goals scored and 0.75 conceded per game recently; Dukla Praha are on 0.50 scored and 1.75 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Hradec Králové have seen both teams score in 25% of their recent games; Dukla Praha in 25%.
Last 4 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hradec Králové
Early Season
Dukla Praha
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hradec Králové and Dukla Praha in coming into this match?
Hradec Králové have gone 2W 0D 2L in their last 4 games (1.50 PPG), while Dukla Praha have gone 1W 0D 3L in their last 4 (0.75 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since August 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 8 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Hradec Králové won 3-0 on 8 Feb 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Hradec Králové have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Dukla Praha — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Hradec Králové
1
Draws
0
Dukla Praha
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hradec Králové and Dukla Praha?
From 4 meetings on record, Hradec Králové have won 3, Dukla Praha have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Hradec Králové and Dukla Praha last play each other?
They last met on 8 February 2026, when Hradec Králové 3-0 Dukla Praha.
Who has won more matches between Hradec Králové and Dukla Praha?
Hradec Králové have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Hradec Králové tend to start slowly — only 25% of their games have a goal by half-time.
Dukla Praha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 25% (Hradec Králové) and 25% (Dukla Praha) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 25% for Hradec Králové and 25% for Dukla Praha.
On the defensive side: Hradec Králové have failed to score in 50% of games; Dukla Praha in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hradec Králové home games / Dukla Praha away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hradec Králové play Dukla Praha?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of Hradec Králové's recent matches and 25% of Dukla Praha's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Hradec Králové vs Dukla Praha usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Hradec Králové's recent games and 25% of Dukla Praha's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hradec Králové and Dukla Praha tend to score early?
Hradec Králové have had a goal before half-time in 25% of their recent matches, Dukla Praha in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Hradec Králové edge out Dukla Praha 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hradec Králové beat Dukla Praha 1-0 at Malšovická Aréna, Regular Season - 5, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hradec Králové 1.64 xG and Dukla Praha 0.69 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hradec Králové attack 0.99 / defence 0.91 against Dukla Praha attack 0.73 / defence 1.16, drawn from 34/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hradec Králové 60% | Draw 24% | Dukla Praha 15%, with Hradec Králové to win its most likely call at 60%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 25% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hradec Králové 25%, Dukla Praha 25%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 25%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hradec Králové's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 25% of their matches — today it did not.
Dukla Praha's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 25% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 50% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Hradec Králové arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 0.75. The form guide was vindicated by the result.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.