Hradec Králové vs Bohemians 1905 – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hradec Králové at 38%, yet in-form Bohemians 1905 provide a compelling counter-argument — this Hradec Králové vs Bohemians 1905 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Hradec Králové host Bohemians 1905 at FINEP Arena in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 28 November 2026 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Hradec Králové stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L D L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Hradec Králové, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hradec Králové at FINEP Arena this season: 6W 1D 3L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Hradec Králové are significantly better at FINEP Arena than their overall form suggests.
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Bohemians 1905 have recorded 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L W W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Bohemians 1905, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bohemians 1905's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Bohemians 1905 are 0.80 PPG ahead (1.60 vs 0.80), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 10 previous meetings, Hradec Králové have won 4, Bohemians 1905 3, with 3 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Aug 2026, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Hradec Králové trading profile (44 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Bohemians 1905 trading profile (44 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hradec Králové 50% versus Bohemians 1905 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hradec Králové 50% | Bohemians 1905 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hradec Králové 1.59 xG and Bohemians 1905 1.51 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hradec Králové attack 0.977 / defence 1.154 | Bohemians 1905 attack 1.017 / defence 1.210. League average goals — home 1.347 / away 1.284. Bohemians 1905 bring a strong defensive rating of 1.210 — this is suppressing Hradec Králové's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 43 Hradec Králové games / 42 Bohemians 1905 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hradec Králové 38% | Draw 28% | Bohemians 1905 34%. Fair-value odds: Hradec Králové 2.63 | Draw 3.57 | Bohemians 1905 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.10. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.10 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.59 / 1.51) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Hradec Králové are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Bohemians 1905 (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hradec Králové offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.10 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 64%. Form rates corroborate: Hradec Králové 70% | Bohemians 1905 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hradec Králové vs Bohemians 1905 | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: FINEP Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Nov 2026, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hradec Králové 38% | Draw 28% | Bohemians 1905 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 64% | xG Hradec Králové 1.59 / Bohemians 1905 1.51 • Poisson strength factors: Hradec Králové attack 0.977 / def 1.154 | Bohemians 1905 attack 1.017 / def 1.210 | league avg home 1.347 / away 1.284 • Poisson stance: Hradec Králové (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.59
Hradec Králové xG
Expected Goals
1.51
Bohemians 1905 xG
64%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hradec Králové vs Bohemians 1905 kick off?
Hradec Králové vs Bohemians 1905 is scheduled to kick off at 17:00 on Saturday 28 November 2026 at FINEP Arena.
Where is Hradec Králové vs Bohemians 1905 being played?
The match is being played at FINEP Arena.
What competition is Hradec Králové vs Bohemians 1905 part of?
Hradec Králové vs Bohemians 1905 is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Hradec Králové vs Bohemians 1905?
Our statistical model gives Hradec Králové a 38% chance of winning, Bohemians 1905 a 34% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Hradec Králové the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hradec Králové vs Bohemians 1905?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Hradec Králové and Bohemians 1905 will score (BTTS).
Will Hradec Králové vs Bohemians 1905 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hradec Králové and Bohemians 1905?
Record (10 meetings): Hradec Králové 4W | Draws 3 | Bohemians 1905 3W.
What form are Hradec Králové and Bohemians 1905 in?
Hradec Králové (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-D-L-L. Bohemians 1905 (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Hradec Králové's attack at 0.98x the league average against Bohemians 1905's defence at 1.21x — combine the two and it projects 1.59 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Bohemians 1905's attack versus Hradec Králové's defence, projects 1.51 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 1-2 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Hradec Králové Win
38%
2.64
28%
3.58
34%
2.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
1 – 2
8.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.59
Hradec Králové xG
Total xG
3.10
1.51
Bohemians 1905 xG
2.64
38%
Home win
3.58
28%
Draw
2.93
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.56
36%
BTTS No
2.78
Clean Sheet
22%
4.51
20%
4.91
Win to Nil
8%
11.90
7%
14.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 6.8 | 5.1 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 10.8 | 8.1 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 8.6 | 6.5 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 4.6 | 3.4 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hradec Králové vs Bohemians 1905?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Hradec Králové and Bohemians 1905 expected to score?
The model projects 1.59 expected goals for Hradec Králové and 1.51 for Bohemians 1905, a combined total of 3.10.
How confident is the prediction model for Hradec Králové vs Bohemians 1905?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Hradec Králové's recent record stands at 20W 9D 15L from 44 games, a 1.57 PPG return, with L-L-D-L-L in the last five. The sample for Hradec Králové is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bohemians 1905, meanwhile, have gone 15W 11D 18L across 44 games — 1.27 PPG, with L-W-W-D-D in their last five. The sample for Bohemians 1905 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Hradec Králové on 1.57 PPG, Bohemians 1905 on 1.27. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Hradec Králové have managed 13W 4D 5L from 22 games — 1.95 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Bohemians 1905's away record stands at 7W 5D 10L across 22 trips, a 1.18 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hradec Králové come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Hradec Králové are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Bohemians 1905 are on 0.95 scored and 1.18 conceded.
Last 44 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hradec Králové
Blended
Bohemians 1905
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hradec Králové and Bohemians 1905 in coming into this match?
Hradec Králové have gone 20W 9D 15L in their last 44 games (1.57 PPG), while Bohemians 1905 have gone 15W 11D 18L in their last 44 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hradec Králové at home or Bohemians 1905 away?
Hradec Králové's home record (1.95 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hradec Králové at home: 1.95 PPG; Bohemians 1905 away: 1.18 PPG.
Have Hradec Králové or Bohemians 1905 been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hradec Králové have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Bohemians 1905 in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to February 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 2 August 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 Dec 2024, when Hradec Králové won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Hradec Králové's record when hosting Bohemians 1905 specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Hradec Králové
3
Draws
3
Bohemians 1905
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hradec Králové and Bohemians 1905?
From 10 meetings on record, Hradec Králové have won 4, Bohemians 1905 have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Hradec Králové and Bohemians 1905 last play each other?
They last met on 2 August 2026, when Bohemians 1905 0-0 Hradec Králové.
Who has won more matches between Hradec Králové and Bohemians 1905?
Hradec Králové have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Hradec Králové are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Bohemians 1905 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hradec Králové 46%, Bohemians 1905 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Hradec Králové) and 54% (Bohemians 1905).
On the defensive side: Hradec Králové keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Bohemians 1905 in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hradec Králové home games / Bohemians 1905 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hradec Králové play Bohemians 1905?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Hradec Králové's recent matches and 50% of Bohemians 1905's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Hradec Králové vs Bohemians 1905 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Hradec Králové's recent games and 54% of Bohemians 1905's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hradec Králové and Bohemians 1905 tend to score early?
Hradec Králové have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Bohemians 1905 in 91% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.