FK Jablonec 2-0 Hradec Králové – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours FK Jablonec (40%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as FK Jablonec face Hradec Králové.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Czech Liga clash, Regular Season - 3 as FK Jablonec welcome Hradec Králové to Stadion Strelnice. Kick-off is set for Saturday 2 August 2025 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Guide
FK Jablonec — All Games: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Czech Liga outings this season, averaging 2.30 points per game. Last five: W W L D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. FK Jablonec have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
FK Jablonec's form when playing at home: 6W 3D 1L across 10 games at Stadion Strelnice this term (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadion Strelnice.
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Hradec Králové have recorded 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L W D L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.10. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Hradec Králové have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Hradec Králové's form when playing away from home: 5W 1D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.60 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support.
On current form, FK Jablonec have the edge — a 1.00 PPG advantage (2.30 vs 1.30) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 7 previous meetings, FK Jablonec have won 3, Hradec Králové 1, with 3 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Mar 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
FK Jablonec in-play tendencies (36 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
Hradec Králové in-play tendencies (36 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FK Jablonec 44% versus Hradec Králové 36%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FK Jablonec 53% | Hradec Králové 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FK Jablonec 1.44 xG and Hradec Králové 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FK Jablonec attack 1.036 / defence 0.835 | Hradec Králové attack 1.107 / defence 1.052. League average goals — home 1.317 / away 1.376. Data: 32 FK Jablonec games / 32 Hradec Králové games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: FK Jablonec 40% | Draw 28% | Hradec Králové 32%. Fair-value odds: FK Jablonec 2.50 | Draw 3.57 | Hradec Králové 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, FK Jablonec are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FK Jablonec offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.71 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates are neutral: FK Jablonec 40% | Hradec Králové 50%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (32 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FK Jablonec vs Hradec Králové | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Stadion Strelnice • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Aug 2025, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FK Jablonec 40% | Draw 28% | Hradec Králové 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 56% | xG FK Jablonec 1.44 / Hradec Králové 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: FK Jablonec attack 1.036 / def 0.835 | Hradec Králové attack 1.107 / def 1.052 | league avg home 1.317 / away 1.376 • Poisson stance: FK Jablonec (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
FK Jablonec xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Hradec Králové xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FK Jablonec vs Hradec Králové kick off?
FK Jablonec vs Hradec Králové kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 2 August 2025 at Stadion Strelnice.
What was the final score in FK Jablonec vs Hradec Králové?
FK Jablonec 2 - 0 Hradec Králové.
Where is FK Jablonec vs Hradec Králové being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Strelnice.
What competition is FK Jablonec vs Hradec Králové part of?
FK Jablonec vs Hradec Králové is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win FK Jablonec vs Hradec Králové?
Our statistical model gives FK Jablonec a 40% chance of winning, Hradec Králové a 32% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making FK Jablonec the favourite.
Will both teams score in FK Jablonec vs Hradec Králové?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both FK Jablonec and Hradec Králové will score (BTTS).
Will FK Jablonec vs Hradec Králové have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between FK Jablonec and Hradec Králové?
Record (7 meetings): FK Jablonec 3W | Draws 3 | Hradec Králové 1W.
What form are FK Jablonec and Hradec Králové in?
FK Jablonec (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-L-D-D. Hradec Králové (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
FK Jablonec's attacking strength (1.04x league average) is weighed against Hradec Králové's defensive record (1.05x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.44. The same calculation in reverse, Hradec Králové's attack versus FK Jablonec's defence, projects 1.27 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (32/32 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 0-0 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FK Jablonec Win
40%
2.52
28%
3.56
32%
3.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
FK Jablonec xG
Total xG
2.71
1.27
Hradec Králové xG
2.52
40%
Home win
3.56
28%
Draw
3.11
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.28
Clean Sheet
28%
3.57
24%
4.20
Win to Nil
11%
8.98
8%
13.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 8.5 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 12.2 | 7.7 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 8.7 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 4.2 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FK Jablonec vs Hradec Králové?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are FK Jablonec and Hradec Králové expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for FK Jablonec and 1.27 for Hradec Králové, a combined total of 2.71.
How confident is the prediction model for FK Jablonec vs Hradec Králové?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
FK Jablonec come into this having played 36 games, going 18W 8D 10L for 1.72 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-D-D. It's still early in the season for FK Jablonec, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Hradec Králové sit at 1.39 PPG from 36 outings (14W 8D 14L), a run that reads W-L-W-D-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Hradec Králové, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: FK Jablonec on 1.72 PPG, Hradec Králové on 1.39. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
FK Jablonec's home form reads 10W 4D 3L across 17 games on their own ground, a 2.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Hradec Králové have taken 1.24 points per game from 17 outings (6W 3D 8L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FK Jablonec come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
FK Jablonec are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 0.97 conceded per game recently; Hradec Králové are on 1.19 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: FK Jablonec have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 36 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FK Jablonec
Early Season
Hradec Králové
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FK Jablonec and Hradec Králové in coming into this match?
FK Jablonec have gone 18W 8D 10L in their last 36 games (1.72 PPG), while Hradec Králové have gone 14W 8D 14L in their last 36 (1.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FK Jablonec at home or Hradec Králové away?
FK Jablonec's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FK Jablonec at home: 2.00 PPG; Hradec Králové away: 1.24 PPG.
Have FK Jablonec or Hradec Králové been keeping clean sheets recently?
FK Jablonec have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Hradec Králové in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between FK Jablonec and Hradec Králové runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to March 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 10 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 Sep 2022, when FK Jablonec won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FK Jablonec's record when hosting Hradec Králové specifically: 3W 3D 0L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
FK Jablonec
4
Draws
2
Hradec Králové
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FK Jablonec and Hradec Králové?
From 10 meetings on record, FK Jablonec have won 4, Hradec Králové have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did FK Jablonec and Hradec Králové last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when FK Jablonec 1-1 Hradec Králové.
Who has won more matches between FK Jablonec and Hradec Králové?
FK Jablonec have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
FK Jablonec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Hradec Králové are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FK Jablonec 41%, Hradec Králové 35% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (FK Jablonec) and 59% (Hradec Králové). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 18% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FK Jablonec keep a clean sheet in 53% of their matches; Hradec Králové in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FK Jablonec home games / Hradec Králové away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FK Jablonec play Hradec Králové?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of FK Jablonec's recent matches and 35% of Hradec Králové's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FK Jablonec vs Hradec Králové usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of FK Jablonec's matches and 59% of Hradec Králové's.
Do FK Jablonec and Hradec Králové tend to score early?
FK Jablonec have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Hradec Králové in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FK Jablonec cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Hradec Králové.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FK Jablonec beat Hradec Králové 2-0 at Stadion Strelnice, Regular Season - 3, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FK Jablonec 1.44 xG and Hradec Králové 1.27 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Hradec Králové landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FK Jablonec attack 1.04 / defence 0.83 against Hradec Králové attack 1.11 / defence 1.05, drawn from 32/32 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it FK Jablonec 40% | Draw 28% | Hradec Králové 32%, with FK Jablonec to win its most likely call at 40%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FK Jablonec 53%, Hradec Králové 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FK Jablonec's trading profile (36 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one.
Hradec Králové's trading profile (36 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FK Jablonec 1.72 PPG, Hradec Králové 1.39 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FK Jablonec win broke the near-deadlock. Hradec Králové (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.29 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.18 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.