Baník Ostrava 0-1 Hradec Králové – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hradec Králové at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Baník Ostrava vs Hradec Králové fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Hradec Králové make the trip to Mestsky stadion v Ostrave-Vitkovicich to face Baník Ostrava in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 12. The match kicks off on Sunday 19 October 2025 at 12:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Baník Ostrava have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: D D L W D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Baník Ostrava, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Baník Ostrava at Mestsky stadion v Ostrave-Vitkovicich this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Hradec Králové (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Czech Liga outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: D W W L D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.70. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Hradec Králové, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hradec Králové away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.00 for Baník Ostrava, 1.20 for Hradec Králové — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Across 7 previous meetings, Baník Ostrava are the stronger side on paper — 5 victories to 1, with 1 draws in between.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.1 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Dec 2024, ended 1–0 with Baník Ostrava winning.
The historical record gives Baník Ostrava a meaningful edge here — 5 wins from 7 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading Data
Baník Ostrava goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (45 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Hradec Králové goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (45 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Baník Ostrava 47% versus Hradec Králové 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Baník Ostrava 44% | Hradec Králové 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Baník Ostrava 1.34 xG and Hradec Králové 1.63 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Baník Ostrava attack 0.853 / defence 1.116 | Hradec Králové attack 1.221 / defence 1.264. League average goals — home 1.243 / away 1.195. Hradec Králové bring a strong defensive rating of 1.264 — this is suppressing Baník Ostrava's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Hradec Králové have an above-average attack strength of 1.221 — the away xG of 1.63 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 41 Baník Ostrava games / 41 Hradec Králové games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Baník Ostrava 29% | Draw 30% | Hradec Králové 41%. Fair-value odds: Baník Ostrava 3.45 | Draw 3.33 | Hradec Králové 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 2.97. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.97 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.34 / 1.63) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Hradec Králové as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Hradec Králové if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.97 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 57% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Baník Ostrava 50% | Hradec Králové 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Baník Ostrava vs Hradec Králové | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Mestsky stadion v Ostrave-Vitkovicich • Kick-off: Sunday 19 Oct 2025, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Baník Ostrava 29% | Draw 30% | Hradec Králové 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 62% | xG Baník Ostrava 1.34 / Hradec Králové 1.63 • Poisson strength factors: Baník Ostrava attack 0.853 / def 1.116 | Hradec Králové attack 1.221 / def 1.264 | league avg home 1.243 / away 1.195 • Poisson stance: Hradec Králové (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Baník Ostrava xG
Expected Goals
1.63
Hradec Králové xG
62%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Baník Ostrava vs Hradec Králové kick off?
Baník Ostrava vs Hradec Králové kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 19 October 2025 at Mestsky stadion v Ostrave-Vitkovicich.
What was the final score in Baník Ostrava vs Hradec Králové?
Baník Ostrava 0 - 1 Hradec Králové.
Where is Baník Ostrava vs Hradec Králové being played?
The match is being played at Mestsky stadion v Ostrave-Vitkovicich.
What competition is Baník Ostrava vs Hradec Králové part of?
Baník Ostrava vs Hradec Králové is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Baník Ostrava vs Hradec Králové?
Our statistical model gives Baník Ostrava a 29% chance of winning, Hradec Králové a 41% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Hradec Králové the favourite.
Will both teams score in Baník Ostrava vs Hradec Králové?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Baník Ostrava and Hradec Králové will score (BTTS).
Will Baník Ostrava vs Hradec Králové have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Baník Ostrava and Hradec Králové?
Record (7 meetings): Baník Ostrava 5W | Draws 1 | Hradec Králové 1W.
What form are Baník Ostrava and Hradec Králové in?
Baník Ostrava (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-L-W-D. Hradec Králové (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-W-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Baník Ostrava's attack at 0.85x the league average against Hradec Králové's defence at 1.26x — combine the two and it projects 1.34 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Hradec Králové's attack (1.22x) against Baník Ostrava's defence (1.12x) — and the away total comes out at 1.63.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.1%), 2-1 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Hradec Králové Win
29%
3.50
30%
3.32
41%
2.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
0 – 1
8.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Baník Ostrava xG
Total xG
2.97
1.63
Hradec Králové xG
3.50
29%
Home win
3.32
30%
Draw
2.42
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.60
38%
BTTS No
2.65
Clean Sheet
20%
5.10
26%
3.82
Win to Nil
6%
17.86
11%
9.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 8.4 | 6.8 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 6.9 | 11.2 | 9.1 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 7.5 | 6.1 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.4 | 2.7 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Baník Ostrava vs Hradec Králové?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Baník Ostrava and Hradec Králové expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Baník Ostrava and 1.63 for Hradec Králové, a combined total of 2.97.
How confident is the prediction model for Baník Ostrava vs Hradec Králové?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Baník Ostrava's recent record stands at 24W 9D 12L from 45 games, a 1.80 PPG return, with D-D-L-W-D in the last five. The sample for Baník Ostrava is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Hradec Králové, meanwhile, have gone 17W 11D 17L across 45 games — 1.38 PPG, with D-W-W-L-D in their last five. The sample for Hradec Králové is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Baník Ostrava by 0.42 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Hradec Králové heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Baník Ostrava have managed 14W 3D 6L from 23 games — 1.96 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Hradec Králové's away record stands at 7W 5D 11L across 23 trips, a 1.13 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Baník Ostrava come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Baník Ostrava are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Hradec Králové are on 1.27 scored and 1.13 conceded.
Defensively: Baník Ostrava have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 45 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Baník Ostrava
Blended
Hradec Králové
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Baník Ostrava and Hradec Králové in coming into this match?
Baník Ostrava have gone 24W 9D 12L in their last 45 games (1.80 PPG), while Hradec Králové have gone 17W 11D 17L in their last 45 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Baník Ostrava at home or Hradec Králové away?
Baník Ostrava's home record (1.96 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Baník Ostrava at home: 1.96 PPG; Hradec Králové away: 1.13 PPG.
Have Baník Ostrava or Hradec Králové been keeping clean sheets recently?
Baník Ostrava have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Hradec Králové in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 9 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Hradec Králové have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Baník Ostrava have gone 3W 0D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Hradec Králové — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Baník Ostrava
1
Draws
4
Hradec Králové
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Baník Ostrava and Hradec Králové?
From 10 meetings on record, Baník Ostrava have won 5, Hradec Králové have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Baník Ostrava and Hradec Králové last play each other?
They last met on 9 August 2026, when Hradec Králové 2-1 Baník Ostrava.
Who has won more matches between Baník Ostrava and Hradec Králové?
Baník Ostrava have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Baník Ostrava are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Hradec Králové are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Baník Ostrava 48%, Hradec Králové 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Baník Ostrava) and 56% (Hradec Králové).
On the defensive side: Baník Ostrava keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Hradec Králové in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Baník Ostrava home games / Hradec Králové away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Baník Ostrava play Hradec Králové?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Baník Ostrava's recent matches and 44% of Hradec Králové's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Baník Ostrava vs Hradec Králové usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Baník Ostrava's recent games and 56% of Hradec Králové's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Baník Ostrava and Hradec Králové tend to score early?
Baník Ostrava have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Hradec Králové in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Hradec Králové edge out Baník Ostrava 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hradec Králové beat Baník Ostrava 0-1 at Mestsky stadion v Ostrave-Vitkovicich, Regular Season - 12, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Baník Ostrava 1.34 xG and Hradec Králové 1.63 xG, a combined 2.97. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Baník Ostrava fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Baník Ostrava attack 0.85 / defence 1.12 against Hradec Králové attack 1.22 / defence 1.26, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Baník Ostrava 29% | Draw 30% | Hradec Králové 41%, with Hradec Králové to win its most likely call at 41%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Baník Ostrava 44%, Hradec Králové 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Baník Ostrava's trading profile (45 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Hradec Králové's trading profile (45 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Baník Ostrava arrived the stronger side — 1.80 PPG against 1.38. Form was overturned, with Hradec Králové winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Baník Ostrava (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.65 scoring average — below par going forward. Hradec Králové (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.35 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.