Wuhan Zall 1-3 Wuhan Three Towns – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Wuhan Zall at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Wuhan Zall vs Wuhan Three Towns fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Wuhan Zall host Wuhan Three Towns at Puwan Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 4. Kick-off is scheduled for Wednesday 15 June 2022 at 12:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Wuhan Zall — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Super League outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: D L D L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Wuhan Zall, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Wuhan Zall at Puwan Stadium this season: 2W 6D 2L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wuhan Zall 1.31 xG and Wuhan Three Towns 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wuhan Zall attack 1.108 / defence 0.998 | Wuhan Three Towns attack 1.214 / defence 0.944. League average goals — home 1.257 / away 1.066. Wuhan Three Towns have an above-average attack strength of 1.214 — the away xG of 1.29 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 17 Wuhan Zall games / 3 Wuhan Three Towns games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Wuhan Zall 37% | Draw 26% | Wuhan Three Towns 36%. Fair-value odds: Wuhan Zall 2.70 | Draw 3.85 | Wuhan Three Towns 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.61. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.61 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Wuhan Zall at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Wuhan Zall offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.61 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wuhan Zall vs Wuhan Three Towns | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Puwan Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 15 Jun 2022, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wuhan Zall 37% | Draw 26% | Wuhan Three Towns 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 53% | xG Wuhan Zall 1.31 / Wuhan Three Towns 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Wuhan Zall attack 1.108 / def 0.998 | Wuhan Three Towns attack 1.214 / def 0.944 | league avg home 1.257 / away 1.066 • Poisson stance: Wuhan Zall (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
Wuhan Zall xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Wuhan Three Towns xG
53%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Wuhan Zall vs Wuhan Three Towns kick off?
Wuhan Zall vs Wuhan Three Towns kicked off at 12:30 on Wednesday 15 June 2022 at Puwan Stadium.
What was the final score in Wuhan Zall vs Wuhan Three Towns?
Wuhan Zall 1 - 3 Wuhan Three Towns.
Where is Wuhan Zall vs Wuhan Three Towns being played?
The match is being played at Puwan Stadium.
What competition is Wuhan Zall vs Wuhan Three Towns part of?
Wuhan Zall vs Wuhan Three Towns is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Wuhan Zall vs Wuhan Three Towns?
Our statistical model gives Wuhan Zall a 37% chance of winning, Wuhan Three Towns a 36% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Wuhan Zall the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wuhan Zall vs Wuhan Three Towns?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Wuhan Zall and Wuhan Three Towns will score (BTTS).
Will Wuhan Zall vs Wuhan Three Towns have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Wuhan Zall and Wuhan Three Towns?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Wuhan Zall and Wuhan Three Towns in?
Wuhan Zall (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-D-L-L. Wuhan Zall home split: 1.20 PPG from 10 | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | CS 1.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Wuhan Zall's attack at 1.11x the league average against Wuhan Three Towns's defence at 0.94x — combine the two and it projects 1.31 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Wuhan Three Towns's attack versus Wuhan Zall's defence, projects 1.29 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 17/3 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.0%), 2-1 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Wuhan Zall Win
37%
2.68
26%
3.80
36%
2.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
0 – 1
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
Wuhan Zall xG
Total xG
2.61
1.29
Wuhan Three Towns xG
2.68
37%
Home win
3.80
26%
Draw
2.76
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
27%
3.64
27%
3.72
Win to Nil
10%
9.74
10%
10.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 9.5 | 6.2 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 12.5 | 8.1 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 8.2 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.6 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Wuhan Zall vs Wuhan Three Towns?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Wuhan Zall and Wuhan Three Towns expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Wuhan Zall and 1.29 for Wuhan Three Towns, a combined total of 2.61.
How confident is the prediction model for Wuhan Zall vs Wuhan Three Towns?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wuhan Zall
Pre-Season
Wuhan Three Towns
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Wuhan Zall and Wuhan Three Towns runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to June 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 July 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Wuhan Zall
0
Draws
2
Wuhan Three Towns
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Wuhan Zall and Wuhan Three Towns?
From 2 meetings on record, Wuhan Zall have won 0, Wuhan Three Towns have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Wuhan Zall and Wuhan Three Towns last play each other?
They last met on 8 July 2022, when Wuhan Three Towns 5-0 Wuhan Zall.
Who has won more matches between Wuhan Zall and Wuhan Three Towns?
Wuhan Three Towns have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wuhan Zall home games / Wuhan Three Towns away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Wuhan Three Towns cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Wuhan Zall.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Wuhan Three Towns beat Wuhan Zall 1-3 at Puwan Stadium, Regular Season - 4, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Wuhan Zall 1.31 xG and Wuhan Three Towns 1.29 xG, a combined 2.61. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Wuhan Three Towns outscored their 1.29 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wuhan Zall attack 1.11 / defence 1.00 against Wuhan Three Towns attack 1.21 / defence 0.94, drawn from 17/3 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Wuhan Zall 37% | Draw 26% | Wuhan Three Towns 36%, with Wuhan Zall to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Wuhan Three Towns win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.