Hebei Zhongji 1-3 Shanghai Shenhua – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Shanghai Shenhua at 58% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Hebei Zhongji vs Shanghai Shenhua encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Shanghai Shenhua make the trip to Puwan Stadium to face Hebei Zhongji in Super League, Regular Season - 4. The match kicks off on Thursday 16 June 2022 at 08:30 UTC.
Form
Hebei Zhongji (all games): 1W 3D 6L across 10 Super League fixtures this term — 0.60 PPG. Last five: D L L L L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Hebei Zhongji, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Hebei Zhongji have posted 4W 3D 3L at Puwan Stadium — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Hebei Zhongji are significantly better at Puwan Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Shanghai Shenhua's overall Super League record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: L W D D W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.90. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Shanghai Shenhua, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Shanghai Shenhua's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Shanghai Shenhua are 1.20 PPG clear of Hebei Zhongji in recent Super League fixtures (1.80 vs 0.60). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Hebei Zhongji lead 0W to 0W over the last 2 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 2 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Aug 2021, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Hebei Zhongji goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (22 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
Shanghai Shenhua goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (22 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hebei Zhongji 41% versus Shanghai Shenhua 54%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Hebei Zhongji 32% | Shanghai Shenhua 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hebei Zhongji 0.76 xG and Shanghai Shenhua 1.62 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hebei Zhongji attack 0.721 / defence 1.379 | Shanghai Shenhua attack 1.000 / defence 0.872. League average goals — home 1.213 / away 1.177. Hebei Zhongji's attack strength of 0.721 is below the league average — the 0.76 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 17 Hebei Zhongji games / 17 Shanghai Shenhua games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hebei Zhongji 17% | Draw 25% | Shanghai Shenhua 58%. Fair-value odds: Hebei Zhongji 5.88 | Draw 4.00 | Shanghai Shenhua 1.72. The model has a clear lean to Shanghai Shenhua (58%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Shanghai Shenhua as the most likely outcome at 58% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.39 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 43% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Hebei Zhongji 40% | Shanghai Shenhua 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hebei Zhongji vs Shanghai Shenhua | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Puwan Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 16 Jun 2022, 08:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hebei Zhongji 17% | Draw 25% | Shanghai Shenhua 58% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 43% | xG Hebei Zhongji 0.76 / Shanghai Shenhua 1.62 • Poisson strength factors: Hebei Zhongji attack 0.721 / def 1.379 | Shanghai Shenhua attack 1.000 / def 0.872 | league avg home 1.213 / away 1.177 • Poisson stance: Shanghai Shenhua (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.76
Hebei Zhongji xG
Expected Goals
1.62
Shanghai Shenhua xG
43%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hebei Zhongji vs Shanghai Shenhua kick off?
Hebei Zhongji vs Shanghai Shenhua kicked off at 08:30 on Thursday 16 June 2022 at Puwan Stadium.
What was the final score in Hebei Zhongji vs Shanghai Shenhua?
Hebei Zhongji 1 - 3 Shanghai Shenhua.
Where is Hebei Zhongji vs Shanghai Shenhua being played?
The match is being played at Puwan Stadium.
What competition is Hebei Zhongji vs Shanghai Shenhua part of?
Hebei Zhongji vs Shanghai Shenhua is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Hebei Zhongji vs Shanghai Shenhua?
Our statistical model gives Hebei Zhongji a 17% chance of winning, Shanghai Shenhua a 58% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Shanghai Shenhua the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hebei Zhongji vs Shanghai Shenhua?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Hebei Zhongji and Shanghai Shenhua will score (BTTS).
Will Hebei Zhongji vs Shanghai Shenhua have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hebei Zhongji and Shanghai Shenhua?
Record (2 meetings): Hebei Zhongji 0W | Draws 2 | Shanghai Shenhua 0W.
What form are Hebei Zhongji and Shanghai Shenhua in?
Hebei Zhongji (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-L-L-L-L. Shanghai Shenhua (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Hebei Zhongji's attack at 0.72x the league average against Shanghai Shenhua's defence at 0.87x — combine the two and it projects 0.76 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Shanghai Shenhua's attack (1.00x) against Hebei Zhongji's defence (1.38x) — and the away total comes out at 1.62.
These ratings are built from 17/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (12.9%), 0-2 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shanghai Shenhua Win
17%
5.74
25%
4.06
58%
1.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.9%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
12.1%
Away win
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.76
Hebei Zhongji xG
Total xG
2.39
1.62
Shanghai Shenhua xG
5.74
17%
Home win
4.06
25%
Draw
1.73
58%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.33
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
20%
5.07
47%
2.14
Win to Nil
3%
29.11
27%
3.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 14.9 | 12.1 | 6.6 | 2.7 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 11.4 | 9.2 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 2.7 | 4.3 | 3.5 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hebei Zhongji vs Shanghai Shenhua?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Hebei Zhongji and Shanghai Shenhua expected to score?
The model projects 0.76 expected goals for Hebei Zhongji and 1.62 for Shanghai Shenhua, a combined total of 2.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Hebei Zhongji vs Shanghai Shenhua?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 22 outings, Hebei Zhongji have picked up 1.14 PPG on a 6W 7D 9L record — D-L-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Hebei Zhongji is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Shanghai Shenhua's form line: 10W 7D 5L from 22 games, 1.68 PPG, last five L-W-D-D-W. The sample for Shanghai Shenhua is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Shanghai Shenhua are the form team by 0.54 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Hebei Zhongji.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Hebei Zhongji have posted 1.45 PPG from 11 outings (4W 4D 3L).
On the road, Shanghai Shenhua have gone 4W 3D 4L from 11 away games — 1.36 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Hebei Zhongji are averaging 0.68 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Shanghai Shenhua are on 1.55 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Last 22 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hebei Zhongji
Blended
Shanghai Shenhua
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hebei Zhongji and Shanghai Shenhua in coming into this match?
Hebei Zhongji have gone 6W 7D 9L in their last 22 games (1.14 PPG), while Shanghai Shenhua have gone 10W 7D 5L in their last 22 (1.68 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hebei Zhongji at home or Shanghai Shenhua away?
Hebei Zhongji's home record (1.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hebei Zhongji at home: 1.45 PPG; Shanghai Shenhua away: 1.36 PPG.
Have Hebei Zhongji or Shanghai Shenhua been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hebei Zhongji have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Shanghai Shenhua in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 7 July 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Shanghai Shenhua have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Hebei Zhongji have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Shanghai Shenhua — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Hebei Zhongji
2
Draws
2
Shanghai Shenhua
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hebei Zhongji and Shanghai Shenhua?
From 4 meetings on record, Hebei Zhongji have won 0, Shanghai Shenhua have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Hebei Zhongji and Shanghai Shenhua last play each other?
They last met on 7 July 2022, when Shanghai Shenhua 1-0 Hebei Zhongji.
Who has won more matches between Hebei Zhongji and Shanghai Shenhua?
Shanghai Shenhua have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Hebei Zhongji are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
Shanghai Shenhua are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hebei Zhongji 46%, Shanghai Shenhua 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 27% for Hebei Zhongji and 36% for Shanghai Shenhua.
On the defensive side: Hebei Zhongji have failed to score in 36% of games; Shanghai Shenhua in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hebei Zhongji home games / Shanghai Shenhua away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hebei Zhongji play Shanghai Shenhua?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Hebei Zhongji's recent matches and 54% of Shanghai Shenhua's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Hebei Zhongji vs Shanghai Shenhua usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 27% of Hebei Zhongji's recent games and 36% of Shanghai Shenhua's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hebei Zhongji and Shanghai Shenhua tend to score early?
Hebei Zhongji have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Shanghai Shenhua in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shanghai Shenhua cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Hebei Zhongji.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shanghai Shenhua beat Hebei Zhongji 1-3 at Puwan Stadium, Regular Season - 4, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hebei Zhongji 0.76 xG and Shanghai Shenhua 1.62 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Shanghai Shenhua outscored their 1.62 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hebei Zhongji attack 0.72 / defence 1.38 against Shanghai Shenhua attack 1.00 / defence 0.87, drawn from 17/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hebei Zhongji 17% | Draw 25% | Shanghai Shenhua 58%, with Shanghai Shenhua to win its most likely call at 58%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hebei Zhongji 32%, Shanghai Shenhua 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hebei Zhongji's trading profile (22 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did.
Shanghai Shenhua's trading profile (22 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Shanghai Shenhua arrived the stronger side — 1.68 PPG against 1.14. Form held, and they took the win. Hebei Zhongji (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.18 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Shanghai Shenhua (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.36 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.