Sichuan Jiuniu 0-6 SHANGHAI SIPG – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates SHANGHAI SIPG at 80% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Sichuan Jiuniu face SHANGHAI SIPG.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
SHANGHAI SIPG make the trip to Shenzhen Bao'an Stadium to face Sichuan Jiuniu in Super League (matchday 10). The match kicks off on Sunday 5 May 2024 at 14:00 UK time.
Form
SHANGHAI SIPG have collected 1.40 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: L W L D W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.50. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
SHANGHAI SIPG away from home: 7W 1D 2L from their last 10 away games — 2.20 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.60 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 2.20 exceeds their overall 1.40 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sichuan Jiuniu 0.74 xG and SHANGHAI SIPG 2.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sichuan Jiuniu attack 0.758 / defence 1.456 | SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.436 / defence 0.707. League average goals — home 1.389 / away 1.362. Sichuan Jiuniu's attack rating of 0.758 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.74. SHANGHAI SIPG bring a tight defence (rating 0.707, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Sichuan Jiuniu's projected output down. SHANGHAI SIPG have an above-average attack rating of 1.436, which lifts their away xG to 2.85. Sichuan Jiuniu's defence rating of 1.456 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing SHANGHAI SIPG's projected output up. Data: built from Sichuan Jiuniu's last 9 games and SHANGHAI SIPG's last 38.
Result probabilities: Sichuan Jiuniu 7% | Draw 13% | SHANGHAI SIPG 80%. Fair-value odds: Sichuan Jiuniu 15.36 | Draw 7.43 | SHANGHAI SIPG 1.25. The model has a clear lean to SHANGHAI SIPG (80%) — a 67pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 3.59. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.59 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates SHANGHAI SIPG as the most likely outcome at 80% — clear model lean.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.59 combined xG gives a 70% probability to Over 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sichuan Jiuniu vs SHANGHAI SIPG | Competition: Super League, matchday 10 | Venue: Shenzhen Bao'an Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 5 May 2024 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sichuan Jiuniu 7% | Draw 13% | SHANGHAI SIPG 80% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 70% (Under 30%) | BTTS Yes 50% (No 50%) | xG Sichuan Jiuniu 0.74 / SHANGHAI SIPG 2.85 • Poisson strength factors: Sichuan Jiuniu attack 0.758 / def 1.456 | SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.436 / def 0.707 | league avg home 1.389 / away 1.362 • Poisson stance: SHANGHAI SIPG (80%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.74
Sichuan Jiuniu xG
Expected Goals
2.85
SHANGHAI SIPG xG
50%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Sichuan Jiuniu vs SHANGHAI SIPG FAQs
What time does Sichuan Jiuniu vs SHANGHAI SIPG kick off?
Sichuan Jiuniu vs SHANGHAI SIPG kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Sunday 5 May 2024 at Shenzhen Bao'an Stadium.
What was the final score in Sichuan Jiuniu vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Sichuan Jiuniu 0 - 6 SHANGHAI SIPG.
Where is Sichuan Jiuniu vs SHANGHAI SIPG being played?
The match is being played at Shenzhen Bao'an Stadium.
What competition is Sichuan Jiuniu vs SHANGHAI SIPG part of?
Sichuan Jiuniu vs SHANGHAI SIPG is a Super League fixture (matchday 10) (China).
Who is favourite to win Sichuan Jiuniu vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Our statistical model gives Sichuan Jiuniu a 7% chance of winning, SHANGHAI SIPG a 80% chance, and a 13% chance of a draw — making SHANGHAI SIPG the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sichuan Jiuniu vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Sichuan Jiuniu and SHANGHAI SIPG will score — effectively a coin flip.
Will Sichuan Jiuniu vs SHANGHAI SIPG have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 70%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Sichuan Jiuniu's attacking strength (0.76x league average) is weighed against SHANGHAI SIPG's defensive record (0.71x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.74. Flip it around — SHANGHAI SIPG's attack (1.44x) against Sichuan Jiuniu's defence (1.46x) — and the away total comes out at 2.85.
These ratings are built from Sichuan Jiuniu's last 9 games and SHANGHAI SIPG's last 38 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-2, at 11.2%. Close behind: 0-3 (10.6%), 1-2 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SHANGHAI SIPG Win
7%
15.36
13%
7.43
80%
1.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 2
11.2%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 3
10.6%
Away win
1 – 2
8.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.74
Sichuan Jiuniu xG
Total xG
3.59
2.85
SHANGHAI SIPG xG
15.36
7%
Home win
7.43
13%
Draw
1.25
80%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
70%
Over 2.5
1.43
30%
Under 2.5
3.33
48%
Over 3.5
2.08
52%
Under 3.5
1.92
29%
Over 4.5
3.45
71%
Under 4.5
1.41
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
6%
17.25
48%
2.10
Win to Nil
0%
–
38%
2.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.8 | 7.8 | 11.2 | 10.6 | 7.6 | 4.3 |
| 1 | 2.0 | 5.8 | 8.3 | 7.9 | 5.6 | 3.2 |
| 2 | 0.8 | 2.2 | 3.1 | 2.9 | 2.1 | 1.2 |
| 3 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 |
| 4 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Sichuan Jiuniu vs SHANGHAI SIPG Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Sichuan Jiuniu vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are Sichuan Jiuniu and SHANGHAI SIPG expected to score?
The model projects 0.74 expected goals for Sichuan Jiuniu and 2.85 for SHANGHAI SIPG, a combined total of 3.59.
How confident is the prediction model for Sichuan Jiuniu vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 80%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
Last 0 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sichuan Jiuniu
Pre-Season
SHANGHAI SIPG
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
Sichuan Jiuniu (Home) vs SHANGHAI SIPG (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Sichuan Jiuniu
Pre-Season
SHANGHAI SIPG
Pre-Season
No results found for this venue split.
No results found for this venue split.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 6 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to May 2024 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Super League. The most recent was as recently as 28 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: SHANGHAI SIPG won Sichuan Jiuniu 0-6 SHANGHAI SIPG on 5 May 2024, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sichuan Jiuniu have gone 0W 0D 3L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against SHANGHAI SIPG — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Sichuan Jiuniu
1
Draws
5
SHANGHAI SIPG
Recent Meetings
❓ Sichuan Jiuniu vs SHANGHAI SIPG H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Sichuan Jiuniu and SHANGHAI SIPG?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Sichuan Jiuniu have won 0, SHANGHAI SIPG have won 5, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Sichuan Jiuniu and SHANGHAI SIPG last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 28 August 2026: Sichuan Jiuniu 0-1 SHANGHAI SIPG.
Who has won more matches between Sichuan Jiuniu and SHANGHAI SIPG?
SHANGHAI SIPG have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sichuan Jiuniu home games / SHANGHAI SIPG away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Dominant SHANGHAI SIPG run riot with a 0-6 hammering of Sichuan Jiuniu.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SHANGHAI SIPG beat Sichuan Jiuniu 0-6 at Shenzhen Bao'an Stadium, Regular Season - 10, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sichuan Jiuniu 0.74 xG and SHANGHAI SIPG 2.85 xG, a combined 3.59. The scoreboard read 0-6 for 6 actual goals. SHANGHAI SIPG outscored their 2.85 projection by 3.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sichuan Jiuniu attack 0.76 / defence 1.46 against SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.44 / defence 0.71, drawn from 9/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sichuan Jiuniu 7% | Draw 13% | SHANGHAI SIPG 80%, with SHANGHAI SIPG to win its most likely call at 80%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 48% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.