Beijing Guoan 2-1 Chengdu Better City – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Beijing Guoan at 43% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Beijing Guoan face Chengdu Better City.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Beijing Guoan and Chengdu Better City meet at Workers' Stadium in Super League (matchday 10). This fixture gets under way on Sunday 5 May 2024 at 13:35 UK time.
Current Form
Beijing Guoan's record over their last 10 games: 6W 2D 2L (2.00 PPG). Last five: D W W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
At home, Beijing Guoan have gone 6W 1D 3L in their last 10 home games (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Chengdu Better City (all games): 6W 2D 2L across their last 10 — 2.00 points per game. Last five: W D W W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Chengdu Better City's away record over their last 10 away games: 4W 2D 4L (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 2.00 PPG for Beijing Guoan against 2.00 for Chengdu Better City. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Beijing Guoan's last 10 home games and Chengdu Better City's last 10 away games) — Beijing Guoan have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Chengdu Better City in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 4 H2H matches in our data, Beijing Guoan edge it 2 wins to 1, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 29 Oct 2023, ended Beijing Guoan 2–3 Chengdu Better City — a Chengdu Better City win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading
Beijing Guoan half-time and goal-timing data (last 64 games, 32 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 36%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Chengdu Better City half-time and goal-timing data (last 64 games, 32 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Beijing Guoan 59% versus Chengdu Better City 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Beijing Guoan 61% | Chengdu Better City 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Beijing Guoan 1.85 xG and Chengdu Better City 1.60 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Beijing Guoan attack 1.294 / defence 1.032 | Chengdu Better City attack 1.124 / defence 1.027. League average goals — home 1.388 / away 1.382. Beijing Guoan carry an above-average attack rating of 1.294 — their 1.85 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Data: built from Beijing Guoan's last 39 games and Chengdu Better City's last 39.
Result probabilities: Beijing Guoan 43% | Draw 24% | Chengdu Better City 33%. Fair-value odds: Beijing Guoan 2.33 | Draw 4.14 | Chengdu Better City 3.04. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS Yes probability 68% | Total xG 3.45. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.45 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% — both xG figures (1.85 / 1.60) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Beijing Guoan as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Beijing Guoan if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.45 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 67% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Beijing Guoan's last 10 home games and Chengdu Better City's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 2.8 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 68% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Beijing Guoan 60% (last 10 home games) | Chengdu Better City 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Beijing Guoan vs Chengdu Better City | Competition: Super League, matchday 10 | Venue: Workers' Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 5 May 2024 at 13:35 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Beijing Guoan 43% | Draw 24% | Chengdu Better City 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% (Under 33%) | BTTS Yes 68% (No 32%) | xG Beijing Guoan 1.85 / Chengdu Better City 1.60 • Poisson strength factors: Beijing Guoan attack 1.294 / def 1.032 | Chengdu Better City attack 1.124 / def 1.027 | league avg home 1.388 / away 1.382 • Poisson stance: Beijing Guoan (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.85
Beijing Guoan xG
Expected Goals
1.60
Chengdu Better City xG
68%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Beijing Guoan vs Chengdu Better City FAQs
What time does Beijing Guoan vs Chengdu Better City kick off?
Beijing Guoan vs Chengdu Better City kicked off at 13:35 UK time on Sunday 5 May 2024 at Workers' Stadium.
What was the final score in Beijing Guoan vs Chengdu Better City?
Beijing Guoan 2 - 1 Chengdu Better City.
Where is Beijing Guoan vs Chengdu Better City being played?
The match is being played at Workers' Stadium.
What competition is Beijing Guoan vs Chengdu Better City part of?
Beijing Guoan vs Chengdu Better City is a Super League fixture (matchday 10) (China).
Who is favourite to win Beijing Guoan vs Chengdu Better City?
Our statistical model gives Beijing Guoan a 43% chance of winning, Chengdu Better City a 33% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Beijing Guoan the favourite.
Will both teams score in Beijing Guoan vs Chengdu Better City?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both Beijing Guoan and Chengdu Better City will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Beijing Guoan vs Chengdu Better City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Beijing Guoan's attacking strength (1.29x league average) is weighed against Chengdu Better City's defensive record (1.03x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.85. Flip it around — Chengdu Better City's attack (1.12x) against Beijing Guoan's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 1.60.
These ratings are built from Beijing Guoan's last 39 games and Chengdu Better City's last 39 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 1-2 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Beijing Guoan Win
43%
2.33
24%
4.14
33%
3.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
1 – 2
7.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.85
Beijing Guoan xG
Total xG
3.45
1.60
Chengdu Better City xG
2.33
43%
Home win
4.14
24%
Draw
3.04
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.47
32%
BTTS No
3.14
Clean Sheet
20%
4.97
16%
6.33
Win to Nil
9%
11.57
5%
19.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.2 | 5.1 | 4.1 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 5.9 | 9.4 | 7.5 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 8.7 | 7.0 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 5.3 | 4.3 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Beijing Guoan vs Chengdu Better City Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Beijing Guoan vs Chengdu Better City?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.6%.
How many goals are Beijing Guoan and Chengdu Better City expected to score?
The model projects 1.85 expected goals for Beijing Guoan and 1.60 for Chengdu Better City, a combined total of 3.45.
How confident is the prediction model for Beijing Guoan vs Chengdu Better City?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Beijing Guoan come into this having played 64 games, going 31W 16D 17L for 1.70 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-L-W.
On the other side, Chengdu Better City sit at 1.84 PPG from 64 outings (33W 19D 12L), a run that reads W-D-W-W-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.70 PPG for Beijing Guoan against 1.84 for Chengdu Better City. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Beijing Guoan's home form reads 16W 8D 8L across their last 32 home games, a 1.75 PPG return.
Away from home, Chengdu Better City have taken 1.69 points per game from their last 32 away games (15W 9D 8L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Beijing Guoan are averaging 1.72 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; Chengdu Better City are on 1.56 scored and 0.94 conceded.
Defensively: Chengdu Better City in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 64 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Beijing Guoan
Current Season
Chengdu Better City
Current Season
Beijing Guoan (Home) vs Chengdu Better City (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Beijing Guoan
Current Season
Chengdu Better City
Current Season
❓ Beijing Guoan vs Chengdu Better City Form FAQs
What form are Beijing Guoan and Chengdu Better City in coming into this match?
Beijing Guoan have gone 31W 16D 17L in their last 64 games (1.70 PPG), while Chengdu Better City have gone 33W 19D 12L in their last 64 (1.84 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Beijing Guoan at home or Chengdu Better City away?
Beijing Guoan's home record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Beijing Guoan at home: 1.75 PPG; Chengdu Better City away: 1.69 PPG.
Have Beijing Guoan or Chengdu Better City been keeping clean sheets recently?
Beijing Guoan have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Chengdu Better City in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to June 2022 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Super League. The most recent was on 26 July 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Beijing Guoan have gone 1W 2D 2L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Chengdu Better City — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Beijing Guoan
4
Draws
3
Chengdu Better City
Recent Meetings
❓ Beijing Guoan vs Chengdu Better City H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Beijing Guoan and Chengdu Better City?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Beijing Guoan have won 3, Chengdu Better City have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Beijing Guoan and Chengdu Better City last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 26 July 2026: Chengdu Better City 2-2 Beijing Guoan.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Beijing Guoan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Chengdu Better City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 30% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Beijing Guoan 56%, Chengdu Better City 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Beijing Guoan) and 38% (Chengdu Better City).
On the defensive side: Beijing Guoan keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Chengdu Better City in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Beijing Guoan home games / Chengdu Better City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Beijing Guoan vs Chengdu Better City Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Beijing Guoan and Chengdu Better City matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Beijing Guoan's recent matches and 44% of Chengdu Better City's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Beijing Guoan and Chengdu Better City matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Beijing Guoan's recent games and 38% of Chengdu Better City's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Beijing Guoan and Chengdu Better City matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 68% of Beijing Guoan's recent matches and 78% of Chengdu Better City's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Beijing Guoan edge out Chengdu Better City 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Beijing Guoan beat Chengdu Better City 2-1 at Workers' Stadium, Regular Season - 10, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Beijing Guoan 1.85 xG and Chengdu Better City 1.60 xG, a combined 3.45. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Beijing Guoan attack 1.29 / defence 1.03 against Chengdu Better City attack 1.12 / defence 1.03, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Beijing Guoan 43% | Draw 24% | Chengdu Better City 33%, with Beijing Guoan to win its most likely call at 43%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Beijing Guoan 61%, Chengdu Better City 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Beijing Guoan's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Chengdu Better City's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Beijing Guoan 1.70 PPG, Chengdu Better City 1.84 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Beijing Guoan win broke the near-deadlock. Chengdu Better City (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.