Shijiazhuang Y. J. 0-2 Shandong Luneng – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Shandong Luneng at 39% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Shandong Luneng encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Shijiazhuang Y. J. host Shandong Luneng at Tianhe Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 7. Kick-off is scheduled for Wednesday 21 July 2021 at 11:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League games this season, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have gone 0W 3D 3L from 6 outings — a 0.50 PPG return. Last five: D D L D L. They are averaging 0.67 goals per game and conceding 1.33 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 6 outings provides some defensive foundation. Shijiazhuang Y. J. have played only a handful of Super League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Shandong Luneng — All Games: 3W 3D 0L from 6 Super League fixtures this season — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W D W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.33 per game is modest, conceding 0.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets from 6 games (67%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Shandong Luneng have played only a handful of Super League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Shandong Luneng have gone 1W 2D 0L from 3 away fixtures this term (1.67 PPG). Away from home they average 1.67 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Shandong Luneng — 1.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.00 vs 0.50). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Trading Patterns
Shijiazhuang Y. J. in-play and half-time data (6 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; they fail to score in 50% of games.
Shandong Luneng in-play and half-time data (6 games): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 17% of games; they keep a clean sheet 67% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shijiazhuang Y. J. 50% versus Shandong Luneng 33%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Shijiazhuang Y. J. 50% | Shandong Luneng 17%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shijiazhuang Y. J. 0.83 xG and Shandong Luneng 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 0.777 / defence 1.161 | Shandong Luneng attack 0.984 / defence 1.132. League average goals — home 0.939 / away 0.995. Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s attack strength of 0.777 is below the league average — the 0.83 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 6 Shijiazhuang Y. J. games / 6 Shandong Luneng games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shijiazhuang Y. J. 23% | Draw 39% | Shandong Luneng 39%. Fair-value odds: Shijiazhuang Y. J. 4.35 | Draw 2.56 | Shandong Luneng 2.56. The draw (39%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 1.96. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.96 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 39% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 23% and away win at 39% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 1.96 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 31% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 42% on No. Form rates are neutral: Shijiazhuang Y. J. 50% | Shandong Luneng 67%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Shandong Luneng | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Tianhe Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 21 Jul 2021, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shijiazhuang Y. J. 23% | Draw 39% | Shandong Luneng 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 42% | xG Shijiazhuang Y. J. 0.83 / Shandong Luneng 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 0.777 / def 1.161 | Shandong Luneng attack 0.984 / def 1.132 | league avg home 0.939 / away 0.995 • Poisson stance: Draw (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.83
Shijiazhuang Y. J. xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Shandong Luneng xG
42%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Shandong Luneng kick off?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Shandong Luneng kicked off at 11:00 on Wednesday 21 July 2021 at Tianhe Stadium.
What was the final score in Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Shandong Luneng?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. 0 - 2 Shandong Luneng.
Where is Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Shandong Luneng being played?
The match is being played at Tianhe Stadium.
What competition is Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Shandong Luneng part of?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Shandong Luneng is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Shandong Luneng?
Our statistical model gives Shijiazhuang Y. J. a 23% chance of winning, Shandong Luneng a 39% chance, and a 39% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Shandong Luneng?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Shandong Luneng will score (BTTS).
Will Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Shandong Luneng have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Shandong Luneng?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Shandong Luneng in?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. (all comps): 0W-3D-3L in 6 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.67 / GA 1.33 | L5 D-D-L-D-L. Shandong Luneng (all comps): 3W-3D-0L in 6 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.33 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-D-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s attack rating (0.78) and Shandong Luneng's defence rating (1.13), the model arrives at 0.83 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Shandong Luneng's attack versus Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s defence, projects 1.14 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 6/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.8%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.9%), 0-1 (14.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shandong Luneng Win
23%
4.43
39%
2.59
39%
2.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
16.0%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.1%
Draw
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.83
Shijiazhuang Y. J. xG
Total xG
1.96
1.14
Shandong Luneng xG
4.43
23%
Home win
2.59
39%
Draw
2.58
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.37
58%
BTTS No
1.73
Clean Sheet
32%
3.11
44%
2.28
Win to Nil
7%
13.78
17%
5.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.1 | 16.0 | 9.1 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 13.2 | 7.5 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 5.4 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Shandong Luneng?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.8%.
How many goals are Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Shandong Luneng expected to score?
The model projects 0.83 expected goals for Shijiazhuang Y. J. and 1.14 for Shandong Luneng, a combined total of 1.96.
How confident is the prediction model for Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Shandong Luneng?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 6 outings, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have picked up 0.50 PPG on a 0W 3D 3L record — D-D-L-D-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Shijiazhuang Y. J., so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Shandong Luneng's form line: 3W 3D 0L from 6 games, 2.00 PPG, last five W-D-W-D-D. It's still early in the season for Shandong Luneng, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Shandong Luneng are the form team by 1.50 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Shijiazhuang Y. J..
Goals in Recent Form
Shijiazhuang Y. J. are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Shandong Luneng are on 1.33 scored and 0.50 conceded.
Defensively: Shandong Luneng in 67% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 6 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
Early Season
Shandong Luneng
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Shandong Luneng in coming into this match?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. have gone 0W 3D 3L in their last 6 games (0.50 PPG), while Shandong Luneng have gone 3W 3D 0L in their last 6 (2.00 PPG).
Have Shijiazhuang Y. J. or Shandong Luneng been keeping clean sheets recently?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Shandong Luneng in 67%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 August 2024, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 13 Aug 2023, when Shandong Luneng won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s record when hosting Shandong Luneng specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
1
Draws
5
Shandong Luneng
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Shandong Luneng?
From 8 meetings on record, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have won 2, Shandong Luneng have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Shandong Luneng last play each other?
They last met on 9 August 2024, when Shijiazhuang Y. J. 3-1 Shandong Luneng.
Who has won more matches between Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Shandong Luneng?
Shandong Luneng have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Shijiazhuang Y. J. are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Shandong Luneng see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shijiazhuang Y. J. 50%, Shandong Luneng 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 50% for Shijiazhuang Y. J. and 17% for Shandong Luneng.
On the defensive side: Shijiazhuang Y. J. keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Shandong Luneng in 67%; Shijiazhuang Y. J. have failed to score in 50% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shijiazhuang Y. J. home games / Shandong Luneng away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shijiazhuang Y. J. play Shandong Luneng?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s recent matches and 33% of Shandong Luneng's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Shandong Luneng usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s recent games and 17% of Shandong Luneng's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Shandong Luneng tend to score early?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Shandong Luneng in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shandong Luneng cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Shijiazhuang Y. J..
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shandong Luneng beat Shijiazhuang Y. J. 0-2 at Tianhe Stadium, Regular Season - 7, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shijiazhuang Y. J. 0.83 xG and Shandong Luneng 1.14 xG, a combined 1.96. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Shijiazhuang Y. J. fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Shandong Luneng outscored their 1.14 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 0.78 / defence 1.16 against Shandong Luneng attack 0.98 / defence 1.13, drawn from 6/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shijiazhuang Y. J. 23% | Draw 39% | Shandong Luneng 39%, with Shandong Luneng to win its most likely call at 39%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 33% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shijiazhuang Y. J. 50%, Shandong Luneng 17%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s trading profile (6 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 50% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Shandong Luneng's trading profile (6 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 67% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Shandong Luneng arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 0.50. The form guide was vindicated by the result.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.