Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1-1 Nantong Zhiyun – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 36% as Shijiazhuang Y. J. take on Nantong Zhiyun.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League clash, Regular Season - 4 as Shijiazhuang Y. J. welcome Nantong Zhiyun to Cangzhou Stadium. Kick-off is set for Sunday 30 April 2023 at 12:35 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League games this season, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: W D L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have posted 2W 5D 3L at Cangzhou Stadium — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.10 lags behind their overall 1.80 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Cangzhou Stadium this season.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1.14 xG and Nantong Zhiyun 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 0.823 / defence 0.967 | Nantong Zhiyun attack 0.880 / defence 1.092. League average goals — home 1.269 / away 1.221. Data: 37 Shijiazhuang Y. J. games / 3 Nantong Zhiyun games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shijiazhuang Y. J. 34% | Draw 36% | Nantong Zhiyun 29%. Fair-value odds: Shijiazhuang Y. J. 2.94 | Draw 2.78 | Nantong Zhiyun 3.45. The draw (36%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.18. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.18 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 36% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 34% and away win at 29% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.18 combined xG gives a 37% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Nantong Zhiyun | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Cangzhou Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 30 Apr 2023, 12:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shijiazhuang Y. J. 34% | Draw 36% | Nantong Zhiyun 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 48% | xG Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1.14 / Nantong Zhiyun 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 0.823 / def 0.967 | Nantong Zhiyun attack 0.880 / def 1.092 | league avg home 1.269 / away 1.221 • Poisson stance: Draw (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
Shijiazhuang Y. J. xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Nantong Zhiyun xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Nantong Zhiyun kick off?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Nantong Zhiyun kicked off at 12:35 on Sunday 30 April 2023 at Cangzhou Stadium.
What was the final score in Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Nantong Zhiyun?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1 - 1 Nantong Zhiyun.
Where is Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Nantong Zhiyun being played?
The match is being played at Cangzhou Stadium.
What competition is Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Nantong Zhiyun part of?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Nantong Zhiyun is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Nantong Zhiyun?
Our statistical model gives Shijiazhuang Y. J. a 34% chance of winning, Nantong Zhiyun a 29% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Nantong Zhiyun?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Nantong Zhiyun will score (BTTS).
Will Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Nantong Zhiyun have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Nantong Zhiyun?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Nantong Zhiyun in?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-L-W-W. Shijiazhuang Y. J. home split: 1.10 PPG from 10 | GF 0.80 / GA 1.20 | CS 4.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s attack at 0.82x the league average against Nantong Zhiyun's defence at 1.09x — combine the two and it projects 1.14 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Nantong Zhiyun's attack versus Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s defence, projects 1.04 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 37/3 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.0%), 1-0 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
34%
2.91
36%
2.75
29%
3.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.9%
Home win
0 – 1
11.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
Shijiazhuang Y. J. xG
Total xG
2.18
1.04
Nantong Zhiyun xG
2.91
34%
Home win
2.75
36%
Draw
3.42
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
35%
2.83
32%
3.13
Win to Nil
12%
8.23
9%
10.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.3 | 11.7 | 6.1 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.9 | 13.4 | 7.0 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 7.6 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Nantong Zhiyun?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Nantong Zhiyun expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Shijiazhuang Y. J. and 1.04 for Nantong Zhiyun, a combined total of 2.18.
How confident is the prediction model for Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Nantong Zhiyun?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
Pre-Season
Nantong Zhiyun
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Nantong Zhiyun runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 20 October 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s record when hosting Nantong Zhiyun specifically: 0W 2D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
3
Draws
0
Nantong Zhiyun
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Nantong Zhiyun?
From 4 meetings on record, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have won 1, Nantong Zhiyun have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Nantong Zhiyun last play each other?
They last met on 20 October 2024, when Shijiazhuang Y. J. 0-0 Nantong Zhiyun.
Who has won more matches between Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Nantong Zhiyun?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 4 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shijiazhuang Y. J. home games / Nantong Zhiyun away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Nantong Zhiyun share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Nantong Zhiyun finished level at 1-1 at Cangzhou Stadium, Regular Season - 4, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1.14 xG and Nantong Zhiyun 1.04 xG, a combined 2.18. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 0.82 / defence 0.97 against Nantong Zhiyun attack 0.88 / defence 1.09, drawn from 37/3 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shijiazhuang Y. J. 34% | Draw 36% | Nantong Zhiyun 29%, with the draw its most likely call at 36%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.