Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1-1 Meizhou Kejia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Shijiazhuang Y. J. at 59%, yet other data sources diverge — this Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Meizhou Kejia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Meizhou Kejia meet at Wuhua Hengpi Football Town in Super League, Regular Season - 2. This fixture gets under way on Thursday 9 June 2022 at 09:30 UTC.
Current Form
Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s overall Super League record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: W W D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Shijiazhuang Y. J., so this record blends games from this season and last.
Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at Wuhua Hengpi Football Town this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1.84 xG and Meizhou Kejia 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 0.996 / defence 1.004 | Meizhou Kejia attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.606 / away 1.066. Data: 15 Shijiazhuang Y. J. games / 1 Meizhou Kejia games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Shijiazhuang Y. J. 59% | Draw 23% | Meizhou Kejia 18%. Fair-value odds: Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1.69 | Draw 4.35 | Meizhou Kejia 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Shijiazhuang Y. J. (59%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Shijiazhuang Y. J. are the pick at 59% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.75 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Meizhou Kejia | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Wuhua Hengpi Football Town • Kick-off: Thursday 9 Jun 2022, 09:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shijiazhuang Y. J. 59% | Draw 23% | Meizhou Kejia 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 50% | xG Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1.84 / Meizhou Kejia 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 0.996 / def 1.004 | Meizhou Kejia attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.606 / away 1.066 • Poisson stance: Shijiazhuang Y. J. (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.84
Shijiazhuang Y. J. xG
Expected Goals
0.91
Meizhou Kejia xG
50%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Meizhou Kejia kick off?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Meizhou Kejia kicked off at 09:30 on Thursday 9 June 2022 at Wuhua Hengpi Football Town.
What was the final score in Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Meizhou Kejia?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1 - 1 Meizhou Kejia.
Where is Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Meizhou Kejia being played?
The match is being played at Wuhua Hengpi Football Town.
What competition is Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Meizhou Kejia part of?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Meizhou Kejia is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Meizhou Kejia?
Our statistical model gives Shijiazhuang Y. J. a 59% chance of winning, Meizhou Kejia a 18% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Shijiazhuang Y. J. the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Meizhou Kejia?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Meizhou Kejia will score (BTTS).
Will Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Meizhou Kejia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Meizhou Kejia?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Meizhou Kejia in?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-D-W-L. Shijiazhuang Y. J. home split: 1.70 PPG from 10 | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | CS 3.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s attacking strength (1.00x league average) is weighed against Meizhou Kejia's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.84. Flip it around — Meizhou Kejia's attack (0.85x) against Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 0.91.
The sample (15/1 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.1%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.8%), 1-0 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shijiazhuang Y. J. Win
59%
1.69
23%
4.44
18%
5.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.8%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
10.8%
Home win
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.84
Shijiazhuang Y. J. xG
Total xG
2.75
0.91
Meizhou Kejia xG
1.69
59%
Home win
4.44
23%
Draw
5.48
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
40%
2.48
16%
6.29
Win to Nil
24%
4.19
3%
34.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.8 | 10.7 | 4.9 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.8 | 9.8 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.6 | 6.0 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.0 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Meizhou Kejia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Meizhou Kejia expected to score?
The model projects 1.84 expected goals for Shijiazhuang Y. J. and 0.91 for Meizhou Kejia, a combined total of 2.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Meizhou Kejia?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
Last 0 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
Pre-Season
Meizhou Kejia
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to June 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 14 September 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Meizhou Kejia won 4-1 on 29 Jun 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Meizhou Kejia — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
2
Draws
2
Meizhou Kejia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Meizhou Kejia?
From 6 meetings on record, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have won 2, Meizhou Kejia have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Meizhou Kejia last play each other?
They last met on 14 September 2024, when Shijiazhuang Y. J. 2-1 Meizhou Kejia.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shijiazhuang Y. J. home games / Meizhou Kejia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Meizhou Kejia share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Wuhua Hengpi Football Town, Regular Season - 2, as Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Meizhou Kejia drew 1-1 in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1.84 xG and Meizhou Kejia 0.91 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Shijiazhuang Y. J. fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 1.00 / defence 1.00 against Meizhou Kejia attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 15/1 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Shijiazhuang Y. J. 59% | Draw 23% | Meizhou Kejia 18%, with Shijiazhuang Y. J. to win its most likely call at 59%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.