Shenzhen Ruby FC 2-1 Hebei Zhongji – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Shenzhen Ruby FC at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Hebei Zhongji fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Hebei Zhongji make the trip to Wuyuan River Stadium to face Shenzhen Ruby FC in Super League, Regular Season - 19. The match kicks off on Monday 24 October 2022 at 13:00 UTC.
Current Form
Shenzhen Ruby FC's overall Super League record this term: 1W 2D 7L from 10 games (0.50 PPG). Last five: W L L D D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 2.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Shenzhen Ruby FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Shenzhen Ruby FC have posted 3W 1D 6L at Wuyuan River Stadium — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Shenzhen Ruby FC are significantly better at Wuyuan River Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Hebei Zhongji have collected 0.00 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 0W 0D 10L. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 3.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 3.90 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. This season is still relatively young for Hebei Zhongji, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hebei Zhongji away from home this season: 0W 0D 10L from 10 away games — 0.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward Shenzhen Ruby FC. A 0.50 PPG lead over Hebei Zhongji (0.50 vs 0.00) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Shenzhen Ruby FC 2W, Hebei Zhongji 0W, 0D.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Jan 2022, ended 1–0 with Shenzhen Ruby FC winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Shenzhen Ruby FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (42 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
Hebei Zhongji goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (42 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shenzhen Ruby FC 57% versus Hebei Zhongji 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shenzhen Ruby FC 62% | Hebei Zhongji 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shenzhen Ruby FC 1.51 xG and Hebei Zhongji 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 0.778 / defence 1.078 | Hebei Zhongji attack 0.628 / defence 1.429. League average goals — home 1.356 / away 1.278. Shenzhen Ruby FC's attack strength of 0.778 is below the league average — the 1.51 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Hebei Zhongji bring a strong defensive rating of 1.429 — this is suppressing Shenzhen Ruby FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 34 Shenzhen Ruby FC games / 34 Hebei Zhongji games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shenzhen Ruby FC 52% | Draw 27% | Hebei Zhongji 21%. Fair-value odds: Shenzhen Ruby FC 1.92 | Draw 3.70 | Hebei Zhongji 4.76. Shenzhen Ruby FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.37. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.37 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Shenzhen Ruby FC as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Shenzhen Ruby FC if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.37 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 42% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 45% on No. Form rates corroborate: Shenzhen Ruby FC 30% | Hebei Zhongji 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Hebei Zhongji | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Wuyuan River Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 24 Oct 2022, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shenzhen Ruby FC 52% | Draw 27% | Hebei Zhongji 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 45% | xG Shenzhen Ruby FC 1.51 / Hebei Zhongji 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 0.778 / def 1.078 | Hebei Zhongji attack 0.628 / def 1.429 | league avg home 1.356 / away 1.278 • Poisson stance: Shenzhen Ruby FC (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
Shenzhen Ruby FC xG
Expected Goals
0.86
Hebei Zhongji xG
45%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Hebei Zhongji kick off?
Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Hebei Zhongji kicked off at 13:00 on Monday 24 October 2022 at Wuyuan River Stadium.
What was the final score in Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Hebei Zhongji?
Shenzhen Ruby FC 2 - 1 Hebei Zhongji.
Where is Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Hebei Zhongji being played?
The match is being played at Wuyuan River Stadium.
What competition is Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Hebei Zhongji part of?
Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Hebei Zhongji is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Hebei Zhongji?
Our statistical model gives Shenzhen Ruby FC a 52% chance of winning, Hebei Zhongji a 21% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Shenzhen Ruby FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Hebei Zhongji?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Shenzhen Ruby FC and Hebei Zhongji will score (BTTS).
Will Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Hebei Zhongji have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shenzhen Ruby FC and Hebei Zhongji?
Record (2 meetings): Shenzhen Ruby FC 2W | Draws 0 | Hebei Zhongji 0W.
What form are Shenzhen Ruby FC and Hebei Zhongji in?
Shenzhen Ruby FC (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 2.40 | L5 W-L-L-D-D. Hebei Zhongji (all comps): 0W-0D-10L in 10 | 0.00 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 3.90 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Shenzhen Ruby FC's attacking strength (0.78x league average) is weighed against Hebei Zhongji's defensive record (1.43x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.51. Flip it around — Hebei Zhongji's attack (0.63x) against Shenzhen Ruby FC's defence (1.08x) — and the away total comes out at 0.86.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.7%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.5%), 0-0 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shenzhen Ruby FC Win
52%
1.92
27%
3.75
21%
4.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
2 – 0
10.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
Shenzhen Ruby FC xG
Total xG
2.37
0.86
Hebei Zhongji xG
1.92
52%
Home win
3.75
27%
Draw
4.70
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.20
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
42%
2.38
22%
4.52
Win to Nil
22%
4.56
5%
21.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 8.1 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.1 | 12.2 | 5.3 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.6 | 9.2 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.3 | 4.6 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Hebei Zhongji?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Shenzhen Ruby FC and Hebei Zhongji expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Shenzhen Ruby FC and 0.86 for Hebei Zhongji, a combined total of 2.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Hebei Zhongji?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Shenzhen Ruby FC's recent record stands at 15W 8D 19L from 42 games, a 1.26 PPG return, with W-L-L-D-D in the last five. The sample for Shenzhen Ruby FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Hebei Zhongji, meanwhile, have gone 7W 7D 28L across 42 games — 0.67 PPG, with L-L-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for Hebei Zhongji is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Shenzhen Ruby FC by 0.59 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Hebei Zhongji heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Shenzhen Ruby FC have managed 7W 4D 8L from 19 games — 1.32 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Hebei Zhongji's away record stands at 0W 3D 16L across 19 trips, a 0.16 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 0.67 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Hebei Zhongji's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shenzhen Ruby FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Shenzhen Ruby FC are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; Hebei Zhongji are on 0.62 scored and 2.12 conceded.
Last 42 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shenzhen Ruby FC
Blended
Hebei Zhongji
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shenzhen Ruby FC and Hebei Zhongji in coming into this match?
Shenzhen Ruby FC have gone 15W 8D 19L in their last 42 games (1.26 PPG), while Hebei Zhongji have gone 7W 7D 28L in their last 42 (0.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shenzhen Ruby FC at home or Hebei Zhongji away?
Shenzhen Ruby FC's home record (1.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shenzhen Ruby FC at home: 1.32 PPG; Hebei Zhongji away: 0.16 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 December 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Shenzhen Ruby FC won 3-0 on 19 Dec 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Shenzhen Ruby FC have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Hebei Zhongji — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Shenzhen Ruby FC
0
Draws
1
Hebei Zhongji
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shenzhen Ruby FC and Hebei Zhongji?
From 4 meetings on record, Shenzhen Ruby FC have won 3, Hebei Zhongji have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Shenzhen Ruby FC and Hebei Zhongji last play each other?
They last met on 15 December 2022, when Hebei Zhongji 2-0 Shenzhen Ruby FC.
Who has won more matches between Shenzhen Ruby FC and Hebei Zhongji?
Shenzhen Ruby FC have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Shenzhen Ruby FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Hebei Zhongji are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shenzhen Ruby FC 42%, Hebei Zhongji 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Shenzhen Ruby FC) and 58% (Hebei Zhongji). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 21% and 16% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Shenzhen Ruby FC keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Shenzhen Ruby FC have failed to score in 42% of games; Hebei Zhongji in 58%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shenzhen Ruby FC home games / Hebei Zhongji away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shenzhen Ruby FC play Hebei Zhongji?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Shenzhen Ruby FC's recent matches and 42% of Hebei Zhongji's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Hebei Zhongji usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 53% of Shenzhen Ruby FC's matches and 58% of Hebei Zhongji's.
Do Shenzhen Ruby FC and Hebei Zhongji tend to score early?
Shenzhen Ruby FC have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Hebei Zhongji in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Shenzhen Ruby FC edge out Hebei Zhongji 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shenzhen Ruby FC beat Hebei Zhongji 2-1 at Wuyuan River Stadium, Regular Season - 19, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shenzhen Ruby FC 1.51 xG and Hebei Zhongji 0.86 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 0.78 / defence 1.08 against Hebei Zhongji attack 0.63 / defence 1.43, drawn from 34/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shenzhen Ruby FC 52% | Draw 27% | Hebei Zhongji 21%, with Shenzhen Ruby FC to win its most likely call at 52%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shenzhen Ruby FC 62%, Hebei Zhongji 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shenzhen Ruby FC's trading profile (42 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Hebei Zhongji's trading profile (42 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Shenzhen Ruby FC arrived the stronger side — 1.26 PPG against 0.67. Form held, and they took the win. Shenzhen Ruby FC (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.05 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.