Hebei Zhongji 0-4 Guangzhou R&F – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Guangzhou R&F at 53% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Hebei Zhongji vs Guangzhou R&F encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Hebei Zhongji host Guangzhou R&F at Wuyuan River Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 20. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 29 October 2022 at 08:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Hebei Zhongji stand at 0W 0D 10L from 10 Super League matches — 0.00 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 4.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 4.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. This season is still relatively young for Hebei Zhongji, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Hebei Zhongji have posted 1W 0D 9L at Wuyuan River Stadium — 0.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 3.50 conceded per game.
Across all Super League games this season, Guangzhou R&F have recorded 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W L D D D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Guangzhou R&F, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Guangzhou R&F have gone 0W 2D 8L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.20 is notably below their overall 0.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Guangzhou R&F — 0.90 PPG ahead of the hosts (0.90 vs 0.00). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Hebei Zhongji, 1 for Guangzhou R&F and 1 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Jan 2022, ended 1–2 with Guangzhou R&F winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Hebei Zhongji trading profile (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 49% of games.
Guangzhou R&F trading profile (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hebei Zhongji 42% versus Guangzhou R&F 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hebei Zhongji 51% | Guangzhou R&F 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hebei Zhongji 1.03 xG and Guangzhou R&F 1.71 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hebei Zhongji attack 0.728 / defence 1.970 | Guangzhou R&F attack 0.687 / defence 1.017. League average goals — home 1.393 / away 1.264. Hebei Zhongji's attack strength of 0.728 is below the league average — the 1.03 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 35 Hebei Zhongji games / 35 Guangzhou R&F games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hebei Zhongji 22% | Draw 25% | Guangzhou R&F 53%. Fair-value odds: Hebei Zhongji 4.55 | Draw 4.00 | Guangzhou R&F 1.89. Guangzhou R&F hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.74. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.74 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Guangzhou R&F are the pick at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Guangzhou R&F offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.74 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Hebei Zhongji 40% | Guangzhou R&F 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hebei Zhongji vs Guangzhou R&F | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Wuyuan River Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 29 Oct 2022, 08:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hebei Zhongji 22% | Draw 25% | Guangzhou R&F 53% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 53% | xG Hebei Zhongji 1.03 / Guangzhou R&F 1.71 • Poisson strength factors: Hebei Zhongji attack 0.728 / def 1.970 | Guangzhou R&F attack 0.687 / def 1.017 | league avg home 1.393 / away 1.264 • Poisson stance: Guangzhou R&F (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.03
Hebei Zhongji xG
Expected Goals
1.71
Guangzhou R&F xG
53%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hebei Zhongji vs Guangzhou R&F kick off?
Hebei Zhongji vs Guangzhou R&F kicked off at 08:00 on Saturday 29 October 2022 at Wuyuan River Stadium.
What was the final score in Hebei Zhongji vs Guangzhou R&F?
Hebei Zhongji 0 - 4 Guangzhou R&F.
Where is Hebei Zhongji vs Guangzhou R&F being played?
The match is being played at Wuyuan River Stadium.
What competition is Hebei Zhongji vs Guangzhou R&F part of?
Hebei Zhongji vs Guangzhou R&F is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Hebei Zhongji vs Guangzhou R&F?
Our statistical model gives Hebei Zhongji a 22% chance of winning, Guangzhou R&F a 53% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Guangzhou R&F the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hebei Zhongji vs Guangzhou R&F?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Hebei Zhongji and Guangzhou R&F will score (BTTS).
Will Hebei Zhongji vs Guangzhou R&F have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hebei Zhongji and Guangzhou R&F?
Record (2 meetings): Hebei Zhongji 0W | Draws 1 | Guangzhou R&F 1W.
What form are Hebei Zhongji and Guangzhou R&F in?
Hebei Zhongji (all comps): 0W-0D-10L in 10 | 0.00 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 4.00 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Guangzhou R&F (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Hebei Zhongji's attack rating (0.73) and Guangzhou R&F's defence rating (1.02), the model arrives at 1.03 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Guangzhou R&F's attack versus Hebei Zhongji's defence, projects 1.71 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 35/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.8%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.7%), 0-1 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Guangzhou R&F Win
22%
4.48
25%
4.03
53%
1.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.0%
Away win
1 – 2
9.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.03
Hebei Zhongji xG
Total xG
2.74
1.71
Guangzhou R&F xG
4.48
22%
Home win
4.03
25%
Draw
1.89
53%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.14
Clean Sheet
18%
5.54
36%
2.81
Win to Nil
4%
24.82
19%
5.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 11.0 | 9.4 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 6.6 | 11.4 | 9.7 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 3.4 | 5.9 | 5.0 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hebei Zhongji vs Guangzhou R&F?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Hebei Zhongji and Guangzhou R&F expected to score?
The model projects 1.03 expected goals for Hebei Zhongji and 1.71 for Guangzhou R&F, a combined total of 2.74.
How confident is the prediction model for Hebei Zhongji vs Guangzhou R&F?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 43 outings, Hebei Zhongji have picked up 0.65 PPG on a 7W 7D 29L record — L-L-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Hebei Zhongji is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Guangzhou R&F's form line: 9W 11D 23L from 43 games, 0.88 PPG, last five W-L-D-D-D. The sample for Guangzhou R&F is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Hebei Zhongji on 0.65 PPG, Guangzhou R&F on 0.88. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Hebei Zhongji have posted 0.90 PPG from 21 outings (5W 4D 12L).
On the road, Guangzhou R&F have gone 3W 7D 11L from 21 away games — 0.76 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Hebei Zhongji are averaging 0.63 goals scored and 2.12 conceded per game recently; Guangzhou R&F are on 1.02 scored and 1.72 conceded.
Last 43 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hebei Zhongji
Blended
Guangzhou R&F
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hebei Zhongji and Guangzhou R&F in coming into this match?
Hebei Zhongji have gone 7W 7D 29L in their last 43 games (0.65 PPG), while Guangzhou R&F have gone 9W 11D 23L in their last 43 (0.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hebei Zhongji at home or Guangzhou R&F away?
Hebei Zhongji's home record (0.90 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hebei Zhongji at home: 0.90 PPG; Guangzhou R&F away: 0.76 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 23 December 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Guangzhou R&F go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 29 Oct 2022, when Guangzhou R&F won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Hebei Zhongji's record when hosting Guangzhou R&F specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Hebei Zhongji
1
Draws
3
Guangzhou R&F
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hebei Zhongji and Guangzhou R&F?
From 4 meetings on record, Hebei Zhongji have won 0, Guangzhou R&F have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Hebei Zhongji and Guangzhou R&F last play each other?
They last met on 23 December 2022, when Guangzhou R&F 4-1 Hebei Zhongji.
Who has won more matches between Hebei Zhongji and Guangzhou R&F?
Guangzhou R&F have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Hebei Zhongji are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Guangzhou R&F are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hebei Zhongji 43%, Guangzhou R&F 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Hebei Zhongji) and 29% (Guangzhou R&F).
On the defensive side: Hebei Zhongji have failed to score in 48% of games; Guangzhou R&F in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hebei Zhongji home games / Guangzhou R&F away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hebei Zhongji play Guangzhou R&F?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Hebei Zhongji's recent matches and 43% of Guangzhou R&F's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Hebei Zhongji vs Guangzhou R&F usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Hebei Zhongji's recent games and 29% of Guangzhou R&F's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hebei Zhongji and Guangzhou R&F tend to score early?
Hebei Zhongji have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Guangzhou R&F in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Guangzhou R&F run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Hebei Zhongji.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Guangzhou R&F beat Hebei Zhongji 0-4 at Wuyuan River Stadium, Regular Season - 20, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hebei Zhongji 1.03 xG and Guangzhou R&F 1.71 xG, a combined 2.74. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Hebei Zhongji fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Guangzhou R&F outscored their 1.71 projection by 2.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hebei Zhongji attack 0.73 / defence 1.97 against Guangzhou R&F attack 0.69 / defence 1.02, drawn from 35/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hebei Zhongji 22% | Draw 25% | Guangzhou R&F 53%, with Guangzhou R&F to win its most likely call at 53%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hebei Zhongji 51%, Guangzhou R&F 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hebei Zhongji's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 49% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Guangzhou R&F's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hebei Zhongji 0.65 PPG, Guangzhou R&F 0.88 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Guangzhou R&F win broke the near-deadlock. Hebei Zhongji (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 2.29 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Guangzhou R&F (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 0.67 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.43 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.