Shenyang Urban 1-2 Yunnan Yukun – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Yunnan Yukun at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Shenyang Urban vs Yunnan Yukun fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Shenyang Urban host Yunnan Yukun at Tiexi Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 10 May 2026 at 11:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Yunnan Yukun — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Super League fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D W W W D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
When travelling in Super League this season, Yunnan Yukun have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shenyang Urban 1.31 xG and Yunnan Yukun 1.49 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shenyang Urban attack 0.751 / defence 0.893 | Yunnan Yukun attack 1.388 / defence 1.036. League average goals — home 1.679 / away 1.202. Shenyang Urban's attack strength of 0.751 is below the league average — the 1.31 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Yunnan Yukun have an above-average attack strength of 1.388 — the away xG of 1.49 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 10 Shenyang Urban games / 40 Yunnan Yukun games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shenyang Urban 33% | Draw 26% | Yunnan Yukun 41%. Fair-value odds: Shenyang Urban 3.03 | Draw 3.85 | Yunnan Yukun 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.80. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.80 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Yunnan Yukun as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Yunnan Yukun offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.80 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shenyang Urban vs Yunnan Yukun | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Tiexi Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 10 May 2026, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shenyang Urban 33% | Draw 26% | Yunnan Yukun 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 57% | xG Shenyang Urban 1.31 / Yunnan Yukun 1.49 • Poisson strength factors: Shenyang Urban attack 0.751 / def 0.893 | Yunnan Yukun attack 1.388 / def 1.036 | league avg home 1.679 / away 1.202 • Poisson stance: Yunnan Yukun (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
Shenyang Urban xG
Expected Goals
1.49
Yunnan Yukun xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shenyang Urban vs Yunnan Yukun kick off?
Shenyang Urban vs Yunnan Yukun kicked off at 11:00 on Sunday 10 May 2026 at Tiexi Stadium.
What was the final score in Shenyang Urban vs Yunnan Yukun?
Shenyang Urban 1 - 2 Yunnan Yukun.
Where is Shenyang Urban vs Yunnan Yukun being played?
The match is being played at Tiexi Stadium.
What competition is Shenyang Urban vs Yunnan Yukun part of?
Shenyang Urban vs Yunnan Yukun is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Shenyang Urban vs Yunnan Yukun?
Our statistical model gives Shenyang Urban a 33% chance of winning, Yunnan Yukun a 41% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Yunnan Yukun the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shenyang Urban vs Yunnan Yukun?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Shenyang Urban and Yunnan Yukun will score (BTTS).
Will Shenyang Urban vs Yunnan Yukun have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shenyang Urban and Yunnan Yukun?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Shenyang Urban and Yunnan Yukun in?
Yunnan Yukun (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-W-W-D. Yunnan Yukun away split: 0.90 PPG from 10 | GF 1.40 / GA 2.00 | CS 2.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Shenyang Urban's attacking strength (0.75x league average) is weighed against Yunnan Yukun's defensive record (1.04x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.31. The same calculation in reverse, Yunnan Yukun's attack versus Shenyang Urban's defence, projects 1.49 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 10/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.4%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.9%), 2-1 (7.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Yunnan Yukun Win
33%
3.05
26%
3.83
41%
2.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.1%
Away win
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
Shenyang Urban xG
Total xG
2.80
1.49
Yunnan Yukun xG
3.05
33%
Home win
3.83
26%
Draw
2.43
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.32
Clean Sheet
23%
4.44
27%
3.69
Win to Nil
7%
13.54
11%
8.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 9.1 | 6.8 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 11.9 | 8.9 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 7.8 | 5.8 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.4 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shenyang Urban vs Yunnan Yukun?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Shenyang Urban and Yunnan Yukun expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Shenyang Urban and 1.49 for Yunnan Yukun, a combined total of 2.80.
How confident is the prediction model for Shenyang Urban vs Yunnan Yukun?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shenyang Urban
Pre-Season
Yunnan Yukun
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Shenyang Urban and Yunnan Yukun runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2026. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 6 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Shenyang Urban
0
Draws
2
Yunnan Yukun
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shenyang Urban and Yunnan Yukun?
From 2 meetings on record, Shenyang Urban have won 0, Yunnan Yukun have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Shenyang Urban and Yunnan Yukun last play each other?
They last met on 6 September 2026, when Yunnan Yukun 5-0 Shenyang Urban.
Who has won more matches between Shenyang Urban and Yunnan Yukun?
Yunnan Yukun have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shenyang Urban home games / Yunnan Yukun away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as Yunnan Yukun edge out Shenyang Urban 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Yunnan Yukun beat Shenyang Urban 1-2 at Tiexi Stadium, Regular Season - 11, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shenyang Urban 1.31 xG and Yunnan Yukun 1.49 xG, a combined 2.80. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shenyang Urban attack 0.75 / defence 0.89 against Yunnan Yukun attack 1.39 / defence 1.04, drawn from 10/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shenyang Urban 33% | Draw 26% | Yunnan Yukun 41%, with Yunnan Yukun to win its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.