SHANGHAI SIPG 1-1 Tianjin Teda – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours SHANGHAI SIPG (61%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as SHANGHAI SIPG face Tianjin Teda.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
SHANGHAI SIPG host Tianjin Teda at Pudong Football Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 24 August 2025 at 12:00 UTC.
Form Guide
SHANGHAI SIPG — All Games: 7W 3D 0L from 10 Super League outings this season, averaging 2.40 points per game. Last five: W D W W W. They are averaging 2.60 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for SHANGHAI SIPG, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, SHANGHAI SIPG have posted 5W 3D 2L at Pudong Football Stadium — 1.80 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.80 lags behind their overall 2.40 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Pudong Football Stadium this season.
Across all Super League games this season, Tianjin Teda have recorded 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L D D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Tianjin Teda, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Tianjin Teda's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On current form, SHANGHAI SIPG have the edge — a 0.70 PPG advantage (2.40 vs 1.70) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. SHANGHAI SIPG register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant matches, Tianjin Teda in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
SHANGHAI SIPG hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 6 wins from 8 previous encounters compared to 1 for Tianjin Teda, with 1 draws in between.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 8 meetings have averaged 2.9 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 16 Apr 2025, ended 4–1 with SHANGHAI SIPG winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both SHANGHAI SIPG and goals. The home side's 6 wins from 8 meetings, combined with an average of 2.9 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Patterns
SHANGHAI SIPG in-play and half-time data (51 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 78% of those occasions; they lead at the break 61% of the time; BTTS occurs in 77% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 77% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 59%.
Tianjin Teda in-play and half-time data (51 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 92% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — SHANGHAI SIPG 69% and Tianjin Teda 57% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (SHANGHAI SIPG 76% | Tianjin Teda 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SHANGHAI SIPG 2.26 xG and Tianjin Teda 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.251 / defence 0.966 | Tianjin Teda attack 0.856 / defence 1.054. League average goals — home 1.717 / away 1.376. SHANGHAI SIPG carry an above-average attack strength of 1.251 — their λ of 2.26 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 51 SHANGHAI SIPG games / 52 Tianjin Teda games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SHANGHAI SIPG 61% | Draw 22% | Tianjin Teda 17%. Fair-value odds: SHANGHAI SIPG 1.64 | Draw 4.55 | Tianjin Teda 5.88. The model has a clear lean to SHANGHAI SIPG (61%) — a 44pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.40. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.40 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (2.26 / 1.14) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, SHANGHAI SIPG are the pick at 61% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.40 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 66% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.9 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates corroborate: SHANGHAI SIPG 80% | Tianjin Teda 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SHANGHAI SIPG vs Tianjin Teda | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Pudong Football Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 24 Aug 2025, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SHANGHAI SIPG 61% | Draw 22% | Tianjin Teda 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 62% | xG SHANGHAI SIPG 2.26 / Tianjin Teda 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.251 / def 0.966 | Tianjin Teda attack 0.856 / def 1.054 | league avg home 1.717 / away 1.376 • Poisson stance: SHANGHAI SIPG (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.26
SHANGHAI SIPG xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Tianjin Teda xG
62%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SHANGHAI SIPG vs Tianjin Teda kick off?
SHANGHAI SIPG vs Tianjin Teda kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 24 August 2025 at Pudong Football Stadium.
What was the final score in SHANGHAI SIPG vs Tianjin Teda?
SHANGHAI SIPG 1 - 1 Tianjin Teda.
Where is SHANGHAI SIPG vs Tianjin Teda being played?
The match is being played at Pudong Football Stadium.
What competition is SHANGHAI SIPG vs Tianjin Teda part of?
SHANGHAI SIPG vs Tianjin Teda is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win SHANGHAI SIPG vs Tianjin Teda?
Our statistical model gives SHANGHAI SIPG a 61% chance of winning, Tianjin Teda a 17% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making SHANGHAI SIPG the favourite.
Will both teams score in SHANGHAI SIPG vs Tianjin Teda?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both SHANGHAI SIPG and Tianjin Teda will score (BTTS).
Will SHANGHAI SIPG vs Tianjin Teda have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between SHANGHAI SIPG and Tianjin Teda?
Record (8 meetings): SHANGHAI SIPG 6W | Draws 1 | Tianjin Teda 1W.
What form are SHANGHAI SIPG and Tianjin Teda in?
SHANGHAI SIPG (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-W-W-W. Tianjin Teda (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from SHANGHAI SIPG's attack rating (1.25) and Tianjin Teda's defence rating (1.05), the model arrives at 2.26 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Tianjin Teda's attack versus SHANGHAI SIPG's defence, projects 1.14 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 51/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.7%. Close behind: 1-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
SHANGHAI SIPG Win
61%
1.63
22%
4.55
17%
6.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.6%
Draw
2 – 0
8.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.26
SHANGHAI SIPG xG
Total xG
3.40
1.14
Tianjin Teda xG
1.63
61%
Home win
4.55
22%
Draw
6.00
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.65
Clean Sheet
32%
3.12
10%
9.61
Win to Nil
20%
5.09
2%
57.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.3 | 3.8 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 8.6 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 9.7 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.4 | 7.3 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.6 | 4.1 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SHANGHAI SIPG vs Tianjin Teda?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.7%.
How many goals are SHANGHAI SIPG and Tianjin Teda expected to score?
The model projects 2.26 expected goals for SHANGHAI SIPG and 1.14 for Tianjin Teda, a combined total of 3.40.
How confident is the prediction model for SHANGHAI SIPG vs Tianjin Teda?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 51 outings, SHANGHAI SIPG have picked up 2.45 PPG on a 39W 8D 4L record — W-D-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for SHANGHAI SIPG is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Tianjin Teda's form line: 21W 11D 19L from 51 games, 1.45 PPG, last five L-D-D-W-L. The sample for Tianjin Teda is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, SHANGHAI SIPG are the form team by 1.00 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Tianjin Teda.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, SHANGHAI SIPG have posted 2.46 PPG from 26 outings (20W 4D 2L).
On the road, Tianjin Teda have gone 8W 4D 14L from 26 away games — 1.08 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SHANGHAI SIPG come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
SHANGHAI SIPG are averaging 2.88 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Tianjin Teda are on 1.41 scored and 1.51 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SHANGHAI SIPG have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games.
Last 51 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SHANGHAI SIPG
Blended
Tianjin Teda
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SHANGHAI SIPG and Tianjin Teda in coming into this match?
SHANGHAI SIPG have gone 39W 8D 4L in their last 51 games (2.45 PPG), while Tianjin Teda have gone 21W 11D 19L in their last 51 (1.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SHANGHAI SIPG at home or Tianjin Teda away?
SHANGHAI SIPG's home record (2.46 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SHANGHAI SIPG at home: 2.46 PPG; Tianjin Teda away: 1.08 PPG.
Have SHANGHAI SIPG or Tianjin Teda been keeping clean sheets recently?
SHANGHAI SIPG have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Tianjin Teda in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between SHANGHAI SIPG and Tianjin Teda runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 23 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 15 Aug 2021, when SHANGHAI SIPG won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
SHANGHAI SIPG's record when hosting Tianjin Teda specifically: 4W 2D 0L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
SHANGHAI SIPG
3
Draws
1
Tianjin Teda
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SHANGHAI SIPG and Tianjin Teda?
From 10 meetings on record, SHANGHAI SIPG have won 6, Tianjin Teda have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did SHANGHAI SIPG and Tianjin Teda last play each other?
They last met on 23 May 2026, when SHANGHAI SIPG 1-1 Tianjin Teda.
Who has won more matches between SHANGHAI SIPG and Tianjin Teda?
SHANGHAI SIPG have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
SHANGHAI SIPG are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Tianjin Teda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — SHANGHAI SIPG at 77%, Tianjin Teda at 73%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 77% for SHANGHAI SIPG and 73% for Tianjin Teda. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 62% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SHANGHAI SIPG home games / Tianjin Teda away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SHANGHAI SIPG play Tianjin Teda?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 77% of SHANGHAI SIPG's games and 73% of Tianjin Teda's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SHANGHAI SIPG vs Tianjin Teda usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 77% of SHANGHAI SIPG's matches and 73% of Tianjin Teda's.
Do SHANGHAI SIPG and Tianjin Teda tend to score early?
SHANGHAI SIPG have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Tianjin Teda in 92% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
SHANGHAI SIPG and Tianjin Teda share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Pudong Football Stadium, Regular Season - 22, as SHANGHAI SIPG and Tianjin Teda drew 1-1 in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SHANGHAI SIPG 2.26 xG and Tianjin Teda 1.14 xG, a combined 3.40. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. SHANGHAI SIPG fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.25 / defence 0.97 against Tianjin Teda attack 0.86 / defence 1.05, drawn from 51/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SHANGHAI SIPG 61% | Draw 22% | Tianjin Teda 17%, with SHANGHAI SIPG to win its most likely call at 61%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 69% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SHANGHAI SIPG 76%, Tianjin Teda 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SHANGHAI SIPG's trading profile (51 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Tianjin Teda's trading profile (51 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, SHANGHAI SIPG arrived the stronger side — 2.45 PPG against 1.45. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. SHANGHAI SIPG (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 3.15 scoring average — below par going forward. Tianjin Teda (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.