SHANGHAI SIPG 2-1 Nantong Zhiyun – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates SHANGHAI SIPG at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this SHANGHAI SIPG vs Nantong Zhiyun fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Nantong Zhiyun make the trip to SAIC Motor Pudong Arena to face SHANGHAI SIPG in Super League, Regular Season - 12. The match kicks off on Friday 9 June 2023 at 12:35 UTC.
Form & Momentum
SHANGHAI SIPG have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 6W 1D 3L. Last five: D W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
SHANGHAI SIPG at SAIC Motor Pudong Arena this season: 8W 0D 2L from 10 home games — 2.40 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at SAIC Motor Pudong Arena. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.90 — SHANGHAI SIPG are significantly better at SAIC Motor Pudong Arena than their overall form suggests.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SHANGHAI SIPG 1.50 xG and Nantong Zhiyun 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.173 / defence 1.042 | Nantong Zhiyun attack 0.673 / defence 0.940. League average goals — home 1.363 / away 1.265. Data: 45 SHANGHAI SIPG games / 11 Nantong Zhiyun games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SHANGHAI SIPG 50% | Draw 29% | Nantong Zhiyun 21%. Fair-value odds: SHANGHAI SIPG 2.00 | Draw 3.45 | Nantong Zhiyun 4.76. SHANGHAI SIPG hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates SHANGHAI SIPG as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on SHANGHAI SIPG if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.39 combined xG gives a 43% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
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🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SHANGHAI SIPG vs Nantong Zhiyun | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: SAIC Motor Pudong Arena • Kick-off: Friday 9 Jun 2023, 12:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SHANGHAI SIPG 50% | Draw 29% | Nantong Zhiyun 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 47% | xG SHANGHAI SIPG 1.50 / Nantong Zhiyun 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.173 / def 1.042 | Nantong Zhiyun attack 0.673 / def 0.940 | league avg home 1.363 / away 1.265 • Poisson stance: SHANGHAI SIPG (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
SHANGHAI SIPG xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Nantong Zhiyun xG
47%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SHANGHAI SIPG vs Nantong Zhiyun kick off?
SHANGHAI SIPG vs Nantong Zhiyun kicked off at 12:35 on Friday 9 June 2023 at SAIC Motor Pudong Arena.
What was the final score in SHANGHAI SIPG vs Nantong Zhiyun?
SHANGHAI SIPG 2 - 1 Nantong Zhiyun.
Where is SHANGHAI SIPG vs Nantong Zhiyun being played?
The match is being played at SAIC Motor Pudong Arena.
What competition is SHANGHAI SIPG vs Nantong Zhiyun part of?
SHANGHAI SIPG vs Nantong Zhiyun is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win SHANGHAI SIPG vs Nantong Zhiyun?
Our statistical model gives SHANGHAI SIPG a 50% chance of winning, Nantong Zhiyun a 21% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making SHANGHAI SIPG the favourite.
Will both teams score in SHANGHAI SIPG vs Nantong Zhiyun?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both SHANGHAI SIPG and Nantong Zhiyun will score (BTTS).
Will SHANGHAI SIPG vs Nantong Zhiyun have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between SHANGHAI SIPG and Nantong Zhiyun?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are SHANGHAI SIPG and Nantong Zhiyun in?
SHANGHAI SIPG (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-W-W-W-W. SHANGHAI SIPG home split: 2.40 PPG from 10 | GF 2.40 / GA 0.50 | CS 7.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from SHANGHAI SIPG's attack rating (1.17) and Nantong Zhiyun's defence rating (0.94), the model arrives at 1.50 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Nantong Zhiyun's attack (0.67x) against SHANGHAI SIPG's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 0.89.
These ratings are built from 45/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.8%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.2%), 0-0 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SHANGHAI SIPG Win
50%
2.00
29%
3.43
21%
4.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
2 – 0
10.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
SHANGHAI SIPG xG
Total xG
2.39
0.89
Nantong Zhiyun xG
2.00
50%
Home win
3.43
29%
Draw
4.82
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.11
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
41%
2.43
22%
4.50
Win to Nil
21%
4.85
5%
21.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 8.1 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.8 | 12.2 | 5.4 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.3 | 9.2 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 5.2 | 4.6 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SHANGHAI SIPG vs Nantong Zhiyun?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are SHANGHAI SIPG and Nantong Zhiyun expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for SHANGHAI SIPG and 0.89 for Nantong Zhiyun, a combined total of 2.39.
How confident is the prediction model for SHANGHAI SIPG vs Nantong Zhiyun?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SHANGHAI SIPG
Pre-Season
Nantong Zhiyun
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since June 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 July 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: SHANGHAI SIPG have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: SHANGHAI SIPG won 8-1 on 26 Jul 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, SHANGHAI SIPG have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Nantong Zhiyun — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
4
SHANGHAI SIPG
0
Draws
0
Nantong Zhiyun
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SHANGHAI SIPG and Nantong Zhiyun?
From 4 meetings on record, SHANGHAI SIPG have won 4, Nantong Zhiyun have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did SHANGHAI SIPG and Nantong Zhiyun last play each other?
They last met on 26 July 2024, when SHANGHAI SIPG 8-1 Nantong Zhiyun.
Who has won more matches between SHANGHAI SIPG and Nantong Zhiyun?
SHANGHAI SIPG have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SHANGHAI SIPG home games / Nantong Zhiyun away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as SHANGHAI SIPG edge out Nantong Zhiyun 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SHANGHAI SIPG beat Nantong Zhiyun 2-1 at SAIC Motor Pudong Arena, Regular Season - 12, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SHANGHAI SIPG 1.50 xG and Nantong Zhiyun 0.89 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.17 / defence 1.04 against Nantong Zhiyun attack 0.67 / defence 0.94, drawn from 45/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SHANGHAI SIPG 50% | Draw 29% | Nantong Zhiyun 21%, with SHANGHAI SIPG to win its most likely call at 50%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.