Shanghai Shenhua 2-0 Qingdao Jonoon – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Shanghai Shenhua at 69% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Shanghai Shenhua vs Qingdao Jonoon encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Shanghai Stadium plays host to Shanghai Shenhua versus Qingdao Jonoon in Super League (matchday 12). Kick-off: Wednesday 15 May 2024 at 13:35 UK time.
Form
Shanghai Shenhua (all games): 5W 2D 3L across their last 10 — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W W D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
At home, Shanghai Shenhua have gone 5W 2D 3L in their last 10 home games (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Qingdao Jonoon's record over their last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L (0.90 PPG). Last five: W L L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Qingdao Jonoon's away record over their last 10 away games: 0W 3D 7L (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.30 is notably below their overall 0.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form ledger tips toward Shanghai Shenhua. A 0.80 PPG lead over Qingdao Jonoon (1.70 vs 0.90) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H History
Neither side has dominated the 2 H2H matches in our data: 2 wins for Shanghai Shenhua, 0 for Qingdao Jonoon and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game across the 2 H2H matches we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 30 Sep 2023, ended Shanghai Shenhua 1–0 Qingdao Jonoon — a Shanghai Shenhua win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Shanghai Shenhua half-time and goal-timing data (last 30 games, 15 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
Qingdao Jonoon half-time and goal-timing data (last 30 games, 15 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 47% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; of the 6 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 43% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shanghai Shenhua 50% versus Qingdao Jonoon 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shanghai Shenhua 40% | Qingdao Jonoon 47%). Note also that Qingdao Jonoon surrender HT leads in 33% of cases while Shanghai Shenhua recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 50% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shanghai Shenhua 1.91 xG and Qingdao Jonoon 0.59 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shanghai Shenhua attack 1.479 / defence 0.660 | Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.626 / defence 0.905. League average goals — home 1.424 / away 1.429. Shanghai Shenhua carry an above-average attack rating of 1.479 — their 1.91 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Qingdao Jonoon's attack rating of 0.626 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.59. Shanghai Shenhua have a tight defence (rating 0.660), which is pulling Qingdao Jonoon's projected output down. Data: built from Shanghai Shenhua's last 41 games and Qingdao Jonoon's last 41.
Result probabilities: Shanghai Shenhua 69% | Draw 21% | Qingdao Jonoon 10%. Fair-value odds: Shanghai Shenhua 1.46 | Draw 4.72 | Qingdao Jonoon 9.73. The model has a clear lean to Shanghai Shenhua (69%) — a 48pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS Yes probability 38% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No at 62% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Shanghai Shenhua at 69% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.50 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 54% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Shanghai Shenhua's last 10 home games and Qingdao Jonoon's last 10 away games) averaging 2.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Shanghai Shenhua 50% (last 10 home games) | Qingdao Jonoon 30% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shanghai Shenhua vs Qingdao Jonoon | Competition: Super League, matchday 12 | Venue: Shanghai Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 15 May 2024 at 13:35 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shanghai Shenhua 69% | Draw 21% | Qingdao Jonoon 10% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% (Under 54%) | BTTS Yes 38% (No 62%) | xG Shanghai Shenhua 1.91 / Qingdao Jonoon 0.59 • Poisson strength factors: Shanghai Shenhua attack 1.479 / def 0.660 | Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.626 / def 0.905 | league avg home 1.424 / away 1.429 • Poisson stance: Shanghai Shenhua (69%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.91
Shanghai Shenhua xG
Expected Goals
0.59
Qingdao Jonoon xG
38%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Shanghai Shenhua vs Qingdao Jonoon FAQs
What time does Shanghai Shenhua vs Qingdao Jonoon kick off?
Shanghai Shenhua vs Qingdao Jonoon kicked off at 13:35 UK time on Wednesday 15 May 2024 at Shanghai Stadium.
What was the final score in Shanghai Shenhua vs Qingdao Jonoon?
Shanghai Shenhua 2 - 0 Qingdao Jonoon.
Where is Shanghai Shenhua vs Qingdao Jonoon being played?
The match is being played at Shanghai Stadium.
What competition is Shanghai Shenhua vs Qingdao Jonoon part of?
Shanghai Shenhua vs Qingdao Jonoon is a Super League fixture (matchday 12) (China).
Who is favourite to win Shanghai Shenhua vs Qingdao Jonoon?
Our statistical model gives Shanghai Shenhua a 69% chance of winning, Qingdao Jonoon a 10% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Shanghai Shenhua the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shanghai Shenhua vs Qingdao Jonoon?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Shanghai Shenhua and Qingdao Jonoon will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (62%).
Will Shanghai Shenhua vs Qingdao Jonoon have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (54%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Shanghai Shenhua's attack at 1.48x the league average against Qingdao Jonoon's defence at 0.91x — combine the two and it projects 1.91 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Qingdao Jonoon's attack (0.63x) against Shanghai Shenhua's defence (0.66x) — and the away total comes out at 0.59.
These ratings are built from Shanghai Shenhua's last 41 games and Qingdao Jonoon's last 41 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (14.5%), 1-1 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shanghai Shenhua Win
69%
1.46
21%
4.72
10%
9.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.7%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
15.0%
Home win
3 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.91
Shanghai Shenhua xG
Total xG
2.50
0.59
Qingdao Jonoon xG
1.46
69%
Home win
4.72
21%
Draw
9.73
10%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.61
62%
BTTS No
1.62
Clean Sheet
55%
1.80
15%
6.73
Win to Nil
38%
2.63
2%
65.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 4.9 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 1 | 15.7 | 9.3 | 2.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 15.0 | 8.8 | 2.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 9.5 | 5.6 | 1.7 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 4 | 4.5 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Shanghai Shenhua vs Qingdao Jonoon Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Shanghai Shenhua vs Qingdao Jonoon?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Shanghai Shenhua and Qingdao Jonoon expected to score?
The model projects 1.91 expected goals for Shanghai Shenhua and 0.59 for Qingdao Jonoon, a combined total of 2.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Shanghai Shenhua vs Qingdao Jonoon?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 69%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Shanghai Shenhua come into this having played 30 games, going 15W 7D 8L for 1.73 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-D-L.
On the other side, Qingdao Jonoon sit at 0.93 PPG from 30 outings (7W 7D 16L), a run that reads W-L-L-D-D across their last five.
Shanghai Shenhua carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.80 PPG clear of Qingdao Jonoon — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Shanghai Shenhua's home form reads 8W 4D 3L across their last 15 home games, a 1.87 PPG return.
Away from home, Qingdao Jonoon have taken 0.27 points per game from their last 15 away games (0W 4D 11L). That's a step down from their 0.93 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Qingdao Jonoon's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shanghai Shenhua come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Shanghai Shenhua are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 1.03 conceded per game recently; Qingdao Jonoon are on 1.13 scored and 1.50 conceded.
Defensively: Shanghai Shenhua have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 30 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shanghai Shenhua
Current Season
Qingdao Jonoon
Current Season
Shanghai Shenhua (Home) vs Qingdao Jonoon (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Shanghai Shenhua
Current Season
Qingdao Jonoon
Current Season
❓ Shanghai Shenhua vs Qingdao Jonoon Form FAQs
What form are Shanghai Shenhua and Qingdao Jonoon in coming into this match?
Shanghai Shenhua have gone 15W 7D 8L in their last 30 games (1.73 PPG), while Qingdao Jonoon have gone 7W 7D 16L in their last 30 (0.93 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shanghai Shenhua at home or Qingdao Jonoon away?
Shanghai Shenhua's home record (1.87 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shanghai Shenhua at home: 1.87 PPG; Qingdao Jonoon away: 0.27 PPG.
Have Shanghai Shenhua or Qingdao Jonoon been keeping clean sheets recently?
Shanghai Shenhua have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Qingdao Jonoon in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 8 H2H matches between Shanghai Shenhua and Qingdao Jonoon, the earliest from June 2023. All of them came in Super League. The most recent was on 8 August 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Shanghai Shenhua have won the most recent 8 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Shanghai Shenhua have gone 4W 0D 0L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Qingdao Jonoon — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
8
Shanghai Shenhua
0
Draws
0
Qingdao Jonoon
Recent Meetings
❓ Shanghai Shenhua vs Qingdao Jonoon H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Shanghai Shenhua and Qingdao Jonoon?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Shanghai Shenhua have won 8, Qingdao Jonoon have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Shanghai Shenhua and Qingdao Jonoon last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 8 August 2026: Qingdao Jonoon 0-1 Shanghai Shenhua.
Who has won more matches between Shanghai Shenhua and Qingdao Jonoon?
Shanghai Shenhua have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Shanghai Shenhua are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Qingdao Jonoon see a goal before the break in 47% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shanghai Shenhua 47%, Qingdao Jonoon 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Shanghai Shenhua and 33% for Qingdao Jonoon.
On the defensive side: Shanghai Shenhua keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Qingdao Jonoon in 60%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shanghai Shenhua home games / Qingdao Jonoon away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Shanghai Shenhua vs Qingdao Jonoon Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Shanghai Shenhua and Qingdao Jonoon matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Shanghai Shenhua's recent matches and 40% of Qingdao Jonoon's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Shanghai Shenhua and Qingdao Jonoon matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Shanghai Shenhua's recent games and 33% of Qingdao Jonoon's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Shanghai Shenhua and Qingdao Jonoon matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 80% of Shanghai Shenhua's recent matches and 47% of Qingdao Jonoon's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shanghai Shenhua cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Qingdao Jonoon.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shanghai Shenhua beat Qingdao Jonoon 2-0 at Shanghai Stadium, Regular Season - 12, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shanghai Shenhua 1.91 xG and Qingdao Jonoon 0.59 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shanghai Shenhua attack 1.48 / defence 0.66 against Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.63 / defence 0.91, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shanghai Shenhua 69% | Draw 21% | Qingdao Jonoon 10%, with Shanghai Shenhua to win its most likely call at 69%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shanghai Shenhua 40%, Qingdao Jonoon 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shanghai Shenhua's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Qingdao Jonoon's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 43% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Shanghai Shenhua arrived the stronger side — 1.73 PPG against 0.93. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Shanghai Shenhua (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.93 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.