Shijiazhuang Y. J. 2-4 Tianjin Teda – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Tianjin Teda (48%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Shijiazhuang Y. J. face Tianjin Teda.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Tianjin Teda meet at Cangzhou Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 12. This fixture gets under way on Friday 17 May 2024 at 12:35 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Shijiazhuang Y. J. have collected 0.40 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 1W 1D 8L. Last five: L L L L D. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 3.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 3.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s home record at Cangzhou Stadium: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Super League appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.40 — Shijiazhuang Y. J. are significantly better at Cangzhou Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Tianjin Teda's overall Super League record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: W D W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Tianjin Teda's away record: 4W 2D 4L from 10 road trips in Super League this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On a straight form reading, Tianjin Teda are the stronger side — 1.40 PPG clear of the hosts (1.80 vs 0.40). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 6 meetings: Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1W, Tianjin Teda 3W, 2D.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Jul 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Shijiazhuang Y. J. half-time and goal-timing data (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Tianjin Teda half-time and goal-timing data (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shijiazhuang Y. J. 54% versus Tianjin Teda 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shijiazhuang Y. J. 49% | Tianjin Teda 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1.26 xG and Tianjin Teda 1.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 0.880 / defence 1.007 | Tianjin Teda attack 1.199 / defence 0.975. League average goals — home 1.470 / away 1.440. Data: 41 Shijiazhuang Y. J. games / 41 Tianjin Teda games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shijiazhuang Y. J. 27% | Draw 25% | Tianjin Teda 48%. Fair-value odds: Shijiazhuang Y. J. 3.70 | Draw 4.00 | Tianjin Teda 2.08. Tianjin Teda hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.00. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.00 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.26 / 1.74) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Tianjin Teda as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Tianjin Teda if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 3.00 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Shijiazhuang Y. J. 50% | Tianjin Teda 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Tianjin Teda | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Cangzhou Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 17 May 2024, 12:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shijiazhuang Y. J. 27% | Draw 25% | Tianjin Teda 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 60% | xG Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1.26 / Tianjin Teda 1.74 • Poisson strength factors: Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 0.880 / def 1.007 | Tianjin Teda attack 1.199 / def 0.975 | league avg home 1.470 / away 1.440 • Poisson stance: Tianjin Teda (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
Shijiazhuang Y. J. xG
Expected Goals
1.74
Tianjin Teda xG
60%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Tianjin Teda kick off?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Tianjin Teda kicked off at 12:35 on Friday 17 May 2024 at Cangzhou Stadium.
What was the final score in Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Tianjin Teda?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. 2 - 4 Tianjin Teda.
Where is Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Tianjin Teda being played?
The match is being played at Cangzhou Stadium.
What competition is Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Tianjin Teda part of?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Tianjin Teda is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Tianjin Teda?
Our statistical model gives Shijiazhuang Y. J. a 27% chance of winning, Tianjin Teda a 48% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Tianjin Teda the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Tianjin Teda?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Tianjin Teda will score (BTTS).
Will Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Tianjin Teda have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Tianjin Teda?
Record (6 meetings): Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1W | Draws 2 | Tianjin Teda 3W.
What form are Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Tianjin Teda in?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 3.00 | L5 L-L-L-L-D. Tianjin Teda (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s attack rating (0.88) and Tianjin Teda's defence rating (0.97), the model arrives at 1.26 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Tianjin Teda's attack (1.20x) against Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 1.74.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.3%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.5%), 0-2 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Tianjin Teda Win
27%
3.67
25%
4.06
48%
2.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
0 – 1
8.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
Shijiazhuang Y. J. xG
Total xG
3.00
1.74
Tianjin Teda xG
3.67
27%
Home win
4.06
25%
Draw
2.08
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.68
40%
BTTS No
2.48
Clean Sheet
18%
5.70
28%
3.53
Win to Nil
5%
20.90
14%
7.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 8.6 | 7.5 | 4.4 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 6.3 | 10.9 | 9.5 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 6.9 | 6.0 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.9 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Tianjin Teda?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Tianjin Teda expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Shijiazhuang Y. J. and 1.74 for Tianjin Teda, a combined total of 3.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Tianjin Teda?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 63 outings, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have picked up 1.14 PPG on a 18W 18D 27L record — L-L-L-L-D across the most recent five.
Tianjin Teda's form line: 25W 22D 16L from 63 games, 1.54 PPG, last five W-D-W-D-W.
Put side by side, Tianjin Teda are the form team by 0.40 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Shijiazhuang Y. J..
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have posted 1.13 PPG from 31 outings (8W 11D 12L).
On the road, Tianjin Teda have gone 13W 8D 10L from 31 away games — 1.52 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Shijiazhuang Y. J. are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game recently; Tianjin Teda are on 1.35 scored and 1.08 conceded.
Last 63 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
Current Season
Tianjin Teda
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Tianjin Teda in coming into this match?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. have gone 18W 18D 27L in their last 63 games (1.14 PPG), while Tianjin Teda have gone 25W 22D 16L in their last 63 (1.54 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shijiazhuang Y. J. at home or Tianjin Teda away?
Tianjin Teda's away record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shijiazhuang Y. J. at home: 1.13 PPG; Tianjin Teda away: 1.52 PPG.
Have Shijiazhuang Y. J. or Tianjin Teda been keeping clean sheets recently?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Tianjin Teda in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 29 September 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Tianjin Teda have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Tianjin Teda won 3-0 on 12 Jul 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Tianjin Teda — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
2
Draws
5
Tianjin Teda
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Tianjin Teda?
From 8 meetings on record, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have won 1, Tianjin Teda have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Tianjin Teda last play each other?
They last met on 29 September 2024, when Tianjin Teda 3-2 Shijiazhuang Y. J..
Who has won more matches between Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Tianjin Teda?
Tianjin Teda have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Shijiazhuang Y. J. are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches.
Tianjin Teda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shijiazhuang Y. J. 48%, Tianjin Teda 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Shijiazhuang Y. J.) and 39% (Tianjin Teda).
On the defensive side: Shijiazhuang Y. J. have failed to score in 39% of games; Tianjin Teda in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shijiazhuang Y. J. home games / Tianjin Teda away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shijiazhuang Y. J. play Tianjin Teda?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s recent matches and 52% of Tianjin Teda's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Tianjin Teda usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s recent games and 39% of Tianjin Teda's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Tianjin Teda tend to score early?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Tianjin Teda in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Tianjin Teda cruise to a comfortable 2-4 victory over Shijiazhuang Y. J..
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Tianjin Teda beat Shijiazhuang Y. J. 2-4 at Cangzhou Stadium, Regular Season - 12, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1.26 xG and Tianjin Teda 1.74 xG, a combined 3.00. The scoreboard read 2-4 for 6 actual goals. Tianjin Teda outscored their 1.74 projection by 2.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 0.88 / defence 1.01 against Tianjin Teda attack 1.20 / defence 0.97, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shijiazhuang Y. J. 27% | Draw 25% | Tianjin Teda 48%, with Tianjin Teda to win its most likely call at 48%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shijiazhuang Y. J. 49%, Tianjin Teda 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Tianjin Teda's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Tianjin Teda arrived the stronger side — 1.54 PPG against 1.14. That form edge translated into the three points. Shijiazhuang Y. J. (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.87 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.26 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Tianjin Teda (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.29 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.13 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.