Shanghai Shenhua 1-1 Beijing Guoan – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Shanghai Shenhua at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Shanghai Shenhua vs Beijing Guoan fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Shanghai Shenhua host Beijing Guoan at Shanghai Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 13 April 2024 at 12:35 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League games this season, Shanghai Shenhua have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: W W W D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Shanghai Shenhua at Shanghai Stadium this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Beijing Guoan stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Super League matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: D W W L W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Beijing Guoan's away record: 5W 3D 2L from 10 road trips in Super League this season (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Shanghai Shenhua at 1.70 PPG versus Beijing Guoan's 2.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Shanghai Shenhua, 3 for Beijing Guoan and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 5 meetings have averaged 3.2 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 19 Aug 2023, ended 1–2 with Beijing Guoan winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Shanghai Shenhua in-play and half-time data (64 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (home games).
Beijing Guoan in-play and half-time data (64 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shanghai Shenhua 52% versus Beijing Guoan 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shanghai Shenhua 38% | Beijing Guoan 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shanghai Shenhua 1.07 xG and Beijing Guoan 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shanghai Shenhua attack 1.307 / defence 0.809 | Beijing Guoan attack 0.930 / defence 0.646. League average goals — home 1.268 / away 1.360. Shanghai Shenhua carry an above-average attack strength of 1.307 — their λ of 1.07 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Beijing Guoan's defence strength of 0.646 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 35 Shanghai Shenhua games / 35 Beijing Guoan games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shanghai Shenhua 36% | Draw 30% | Beijing Guoan 34%. Fair-value odds: Shanghai Shenhua 2.78 | Draw 3.33 | Beijing Guoan 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.09. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.09 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Shanghai Shenhua are the pick at 36% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Shanghai Shenhua offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.09 combined xG gives a 35% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 42% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Shanghai Shenhua 50% | Beijing Guoan 50%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shanghai Shenhua vs Beijing Guoan | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Shanghai Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Apr 2024, 12:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shanghai Shenhua 36% | Draw 30% | Beijing Guoan 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 42% | xG Shanghai Shenhua 1.07 / Beijing Guoan 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Shanghai Shenhua attack 1.307 / def 0.809 | Beijing Guoan attack 0.930 / def 0.646 | league avg home 1.268 / away 1.360 • Poisson stance: Shanghai Shenhua (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.07
Shanghai Shenhua xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Beijing Guoan xG
42%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shanghai Shenhua vs Beijing Guoan kick off?
Shanghai Shenhua vs Beijing Guoan kicked off at 12:35 on Saturday 13 April 2024 at Shanghai Stadium.
What was the final score in Shanghai Shenhua vs Beijing Guoan?
Shanghai Shenhua 1 - 1 Beijing Guoan.
Where is Shanghai Shenhua vs Beijing Guoan being played?
The match is being played at Shanghai Stadium.
What competition is Shanghai Shenhua vs Beijing Guoan part of?
Shanghai Shenhua vs Beijing Guoan is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Shanghai Shenhua vs Beijing Guoan?
Our statistical model gives Shanghai Shenhua a 36% chance of winning, Beijing Guoan a 34% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Shanghai Shenhua the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shanghai Shenhua vs Beijing Guoan?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Shanghai Shenhua and Beijing Guoan will score (BTTS).
Will Shanghai Shenhua vs Beijing Guoan have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shanghai Shenhua and Beijing Guoan?
Record (5 meetings): Shanghai Shenhua 1W | Draws 1 | Beijing Guoan 3W.
What form are Shanghai Shenhua and Beijing Guoan in?
Shanghai Shenhua (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-D-L. Beijing Guoan (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Shanghai Shenhua's attacking strength (1.31x league average) is weighed against Beijing Guoan's defensive record (0.65x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.07. The same calculation in reverse, Beijing Guoan's attack versus Shanghai Shenhua's defence, projects 1.02 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 35/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.1%), 1-0 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shanghai Shenhua Win
36%
2.76
30%
3.33
34%
2.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
13.2%
Home win
0 – 1
12.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.07
Shanghai Shenhua xG
Total xG
2.09
1.02
Beijing Guoan xG
2.76
36%
Home win
3.33
30%
Draw
2.96
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.38
58%
BTTS No
1.73
Clean Sheet
36%
2.78
34%
2.92
Win to Nil
13%
7.68
12%
8.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.3 | 12.6 | 6.4 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.2 | 13.5 | 6.9 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 7.2 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shanghai Shenhua vs Beijing Guoan?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Shanghai Shenhua and Beijing Guoan expected to score?
The model projects 1.07 expected goals for Shanghai Shenhua and 1.02 for Beijing Guoan, a combined total of 2.09.
How confident is the prediction model for Shanghai Shenhua vs Beijing Guoan?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 64 outings, Shanghai Shenhua have picked up 1.64 PPG on a 29W 18D 17L record — W-W-W-D-L across the most recent five.
Beijing Guoan's form line: 31W 16D 17L from 64 games, 1.70 PPG, last five D-W-W-L-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Shanghai Shenhua on 1.64 PPG, Beijing Guoan on 1.70. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Shanghai Shenhua have posted 1.75 PPG from 32 outings (16W 8D 8L).
On the road, Beijing Guoan have gone 15W 8D 9L from 32 away games — 1.66 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Shanghai Shenhua are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.02 conceded per game recently; Beijing Guoan are on 1.72 scored and 1.31 conceded.
Defensively: Shanghai Shenhua have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 64 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shanghai Shenhua
Current Season
Beijing Guoan
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shanghai Shenhua and Beijing Guoan in coming into this match?
Shanghai Shenhua have gone 29W 18D 17L in their last 64 games (1.64 PPG), while Beijing Guoan have gone 31W 16D 17L in their last 64 (1.70 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shanghai Shenhua at home or Beijing Guoan away?
Shanghai Shenhua's home record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shanghai Shenhua at home: 1.75 PPG; Beijing Guoan away: 1.66 PPG.
Have Shanghai Shenhua or Beijing Guoan been keeping clean sheets recently?
Shanghai Shenhua have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Beijing Guoan in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Shanghai Shenhua and Beijing Guoan runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 21 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Shanghai Shenhua's record when hosting Beijing Guoan specifically: 0W 3D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Shanghai Shenhua
4
Draws
4
Beijing Guoan
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shanghai Shenhua and Beijing Guoan?
From 10 meetings on record, Shanghai Shenhua have won 2, Beijing Guoan have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Shanghai Shenhua and Beijing Guoan last play each other?
They last met on 21 March 2026, when Beijing Guoan 1-1 Shanghai Shenhua.
Who has won more matches between Shanghai Shenhua and Beijing Guoan?
Beijing Guoan have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Shanghai Shenhua are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Beijing Guoan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shanghai Shenhua 47%, Beijing Guoan 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 31% (Shanghai Shenhua) and 66% (Beijing Guoan).
On the defensive side: Shanghai Shenhua keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shanghai Shenhua home games / Beijing Guoan away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shanghai Shenhua play Beijing Guoan?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Shanghai Shenhua's recent matches and 62% of Beijing Guoan's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Shanghai Shenhua vs Beijing Guoan usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 31% of Shanghai Shenhua's recent games and 66% of Beijing Guoan's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Shanghai Shenhua and Beijing Guoan tend to score early?
Shanghai Shenhua have had a goal before half-time in 66% of their recent matches, Beijing Guoan in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shanghai Shenhua and Beijing Guoan share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shanghai Shenhua and Beijing Guoan finished level at 1-1 at Shanghai Stadium, Regular Season - 6, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shanghai Shenhua 1.07 xG and Beijing Guoan 1.02 xG, a combined 2.09. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shanghai Shenhua attack 1.31 / defence 0.81 against Beijing Guoan attack 0.93 / defence 0.65, drawn from 35/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shanghai Shenhua 36% | Draw 30% | Beijing Guoan 34%, with Shanghai Shenhua to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shanghai Shenhua 38%, Beijing Guoan 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shanghai Shenhua's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Beijing Guoan's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Shanghai Shenhua 1.64 PPG, Beijing Guoan 1.70 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.