Changchun Yatai 1-2 Chengdu Better City – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Chengdu Better City at 43% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Changchun Yatai vs Chengdu Better City encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Changchun Sports Center Stadium plays host to Changchun Yatai versus Chengdu Better City in Super League (matchday 6). Kick-off: Sunday 14 April 2024 at 09:30 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Changchun Yatai have collected 1.10 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: D W L D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Changchun Yatai's home record over their last 10 home games: 4W 4D 2L (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Changchun Yatai are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Chengdu Better City's record over their last 10 games: 6W 2D 2L (2.00 PPG). Last five: W D W W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Chengdu Better City away from home: 4W 2D 4L from their last 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Chengdu Better City are 0.90 PPG clear of Changchun Yatai over their recent games (2.00 vs 1.10). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Changchun Yatai's last 10 home games and Chengdu Better City's last 10 away games) — Changchun Yatai have seen both teams score in 80% of their games, Chengdu Better City in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 4 H2H matches in our data, the wins are level at 1 apiece, with 2 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 12 Aug 2023, ended Changchun Yatai 1–0 Chengdu Better City — a Changchun Yatai win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading
Changchun Yatai half-time and goal-timing data (last 64 games, 32 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 91% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
Chengdu Better City half-time and goal-timing data (last 64 games, 32 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Changchun Yatai 56% versus Chengdu Better City 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Changchun Yatai 52% | Chengdu Better City 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Changchun Yatai 1.25 xG and Chengdu Better City 1.49 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Changchun Yatai attack 0.932 / defence 1.005 | Chengdu Better City attack 1.094 / defence 1.059. League average goals — home 1.266 / away 1.360. Data: built from Changchun Yatai's last 35 games and Chengdu Better City's last 35.
Result probabilities: Changchun Yatai 32% | Draw 25% | Chengdu Better City 43%. Fair-value odds: Changchun Yatai 3.15 | Draw 3.94 | Chengdu Better City 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS Yes probability 55% | Total xG 2.74. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.74 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 55% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Chengdu Better City at 43% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Chengdu Better City if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.74 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Changchun Yatai's last 10 home games and Chengdu Better City's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Changchun Yatai 80% (last 10 home games) | Chengdu Better City 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Changchun Yatai vs Chengdu Better City | Competition: Super League, matchday 6 | Venue: Changchun Sports Center Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 14 April 2024 at 09:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Changchun Yatai 32% | Draw 25% | Chengdu Better City 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% (Under 48%) | BTTS Yes 55% (No 45%) | xG Changchun Yatai 1.25 / Chengdu Better City 1.49 • Poisson strength factors: Changchun Yatai attack 0.932 / def 1.005 | Chengdu Better City attack 1.094 / def 1.059 | league avg home 1.266 / away 1.360 • Poisson stance: Chengdu Better City (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Changchun Yatai xG
Expected Goals
1.49
Chengdu Better City xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Changchun Yatai vs Chengdu Better City FAQs
What time does Changchun Yatai vs Chengdu Better City kick off?
Changchun Yatai vs Chengdu Better City kicked off at 09:30 UK time on Sunday 14 April 2024 at Changchun Sports Center Stadium.
What was the final score in Changchun Yatai vs Chengdu Better City?
Changchun Yatai 1 - 2 Chengdu Better City.
Where is Changchun Yatai vs Chengdu Better City being played?
The match is being played at Changchun Sports Center Stadium.
What competition is Changchun Yatai vs Chengdu Better City part of?
Changchun Yatai vs Chengdu Better City is a Super League fixture (matchday 6) (China).
Who is favourite to win Changchun Yatai vs Chengdu Better City?
Our statistical model gives Changchun Yatai a 32% chance of winning, Chengdu Better City a 43% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Chengdu Better City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Changchun Yatai vs Chengdu Better City?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Changchun Yatai and Chengdu Better City will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Changchun Yatai vs Chengdu Better City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Changchun Yatai's attack rating (0.93) and Chengdu Better City's defence rating (1.06), the model arrives at 1.25 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Chengdu Better City's attack (1.09x) against Changchun Yatai's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 1.49.
These ratings are built from Changchun Yatai's last 35 games and Chengdu Better City's last 35 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.0%), 0-1 (8.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Chengdu Better City Win
32%
3.15
25%
3.94
43%
2.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.6%
Away win
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Changchun Yatai xG
Total xG
2.74
1.49
Chengdu Better City xG
3.15
32%
Home win
3.94
25%
Draw
2.33
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.24
Clean Sheet
22%
4.45
29%
3.49
Win to Nil
7%
14.03
12%
8.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 9.6 | 7.2 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 12.0 | 9.0 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 7.5 | 5.6 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.1 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Changchun Yatai vs Chengdu Better City Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Changchun Yatai vs Chengdu Better City?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Changchun Yatai and Chengdu Better City expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Changchun Yatai and 1.49 for Chengdu Better City, a combined total of 2.74.
How confident is the prediction model for Changchun Yatai vs Chengdu Better City?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Changchun Yatai's recent record stands at 21W 20D 23L from 64 games, a 1.30 PPG return, with D-W-L-D-L in the last five.
Chengdu Better City, meanwhile, have gone 33W 19D 12L across 64 games — 1.84 PPG, with W-D-W-W-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Chengdu Better City by 0.54 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Changchun Yatai heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Changchun Yatai have managed 11W 10D 11L from their last 32 home games — 1.34 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Chengdu Better City's away record stands at 15W 9D 8L across their last 32 away games, a 1.69 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Changchun Yatai are averaging 1.45 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; Chengdu Better City are on 1.56 scored and 0.94 conceded.
Defensively: Chengdu Better City in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 64 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Changchun Yatai
Current Season
Chengdu Better City
Current Season
Changchun Yatai (Home) vs Chengdu Better City (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Changchun Yatai
Current Season
Chengdu Better City
Current Season
❓ Changchun Yatai vs Chengdu Better City Form FAQs
What form are Changchun Yatai and Chengdu Better City in coming into this match?
Changchun Yatai have gone 21W 20D 23L in their last 64 games (1.30 PPG), while Chengdu Better City have gone 33W 19D 12L in their last 64 (1.84 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Changchun Yatai at home or Chengdu Better City away?
Chengdu Better City's away record (1.69 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Changchun Yatai at home: 1.34 PPG; Chengdu Better City away: 1.69 PPG.
Have Changchun Yatai or Chengdu Better City been keeping clean sheets recently?
Changchun Yatai have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Chengdu Better City in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 8 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to September 2022 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Super League. The most recent in our data was on 12 September 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Chengdu Better City have won the most recent 4 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Chengdu Better City won Chengdu Better City 4-0 Changchun Yatai on 3 Aug 2024, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Changchun Yatai have gone 1W 0D 3L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Chengdu Better City — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Changchun Yatai
2
Draws
5
Chengdu Better City
Recent Meetings
❓ Changchun Yatai vs Chengdu Better City H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Changchun Yatai and Chengdu Better City?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Changchun Yatai have won 1, Chengdu Better City have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Changchun Yatai and Chengdu Better City last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 12 September 2025: Chengdu Better City 1-0 Changchun Yatai.
Who has won more matches between Changchun Yatai and Chengdu Better City?
Chengdu Better City have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Changchun Yatai are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 27% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 27% of those situations.
Chengdu Better City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 30% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Changchun Yatai 59%, Chengdu Better City 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Changchun Yatai) and 38% (Chengdu Better City).
On the defensive side: Chengdu Better City in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Changchun Yatai home games / Chengdu Better City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Changchun Yatai vs Chengdu Better City Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Changchun Yatai and Chengdu Better City matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 59% of Changchun Yatai's recent matches and 44% of Chengdu Better City's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Changchun Yatai and Chengdu Better City matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Changchun Yatai's recent games and 38% of Chengdu Better City's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Changchun Yatai and Chengdu Better City matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 91% of Changchun Yatai's recent matches and 78% of Chengdu Better City's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Chengdu Better City edge out Changchun Yatai 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Chengdu Better City beat Changchun Yatai 1-2 at Changchun Sports Center Stadium, Regular Season - 6, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Changchun Yatai 1.25 xG and Chengdu Better City 1.49 xG, a combined 2.74. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Changchun Yatai attack 0.93 / defence 1.00 against Chengdu Better City attack 1.09 / defence 1.06, drawn from 35/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Changchun Yatai 32% | Draw 25% | Chengdu Better City 43%, with Chengdu Better City to win its most likely call at 43%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Changchun Yatai 52%, Chengdu Better City 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Changchun Yatai's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Chengdu Better City's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Chengdu Better City arrived the stronger side — 1.84 PPG against 1.30. That form edge translated into the three points.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.