Qingdao Youth Island 1-1 Beijing Guoan – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Beijing Guoan at 37% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Qingdao Youth Island vs Beijing Guoan encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League encounter, Regular Season - 13 sees Beijing Guoan travel to Qingdao West Coast University Town Stadium to take on Qingdao Youth Island. The game is scheduled for Tuesday 19 May 2026, 12:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Qingdao Youth Island stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 Super League matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L D L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Qingdao Youth Island's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 games at Qingdao West Coast University Town Stadium this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Beijing Guoan — All Games: 5W 0D 5L from 10 Super League fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Beijing Guoan have gone 5W 1D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.60 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.30 PPG (Qingdao Youth Island) versus 1.50 (Beijing Guoan). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Beijing Guoan have the better historical record — 3 wins from 4 previous contests against 0 for Qingdao Youth Island.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 4 meetings have averaged 3.5 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 16 Aug 2025, ended 1–3 with Beijing Guoan winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Beijing Guoan have won 3 of 4 previous encounters, and at 3.5 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Profile
Qingdao Youth Island in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Beijing Guoan in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; they lead at the break 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Qingdao Youth Island 60% and Beijing Guoan 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Qingdao Youth Island 57% | Beijing Guoan 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Qingdao Youth Island 1.01 xG and Beijing Guoan 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Qingdao Youth Island attack 0.671 / defence 0.829 | Beijing Guoan attack 1.073 / defence 0.888. League average goals — home 1.695 / away 1.244. Qingdao Youth Island's attack strength of 0.671 is below the league average — the 1.01 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 42 Qingdao Youth Island games / 42 Beijing Guoan games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Qingdao Youth Island 32% | Draw 31% | Beijing Guoan 37%. Fair-value odds: Qingdao Youth Island 3.12 | Draw 3.23 | Beijing Guoan 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.12. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.12 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Beijing Guoan are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Beijing Guoan offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.12 combined xG gives a 35% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging only 3.5 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 43% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Qingdao Youth Island 50% | Beijing Guoan 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Qingdao Youth Island vs Beijing Guoan | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Qingdao West Coast University Town Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 19 May 2026, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Qingdao Youth Island 32% | Draw 31% | Beijing Guoan 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 43% | xG Qingdao Youth Island 1.01 / Beijing Guoan 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Qingdao Youth Island attack 0.671 / def 0.829 | Beijing Guoan attack 1.073 / def 0.888 | league avg home 1.695 / away 1.244 • Poisson stance: Beijing Guoan (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.01
Qingdao Youth Island xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Beijing Guoan xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Qingdao Youth Island vs Beijing Guoan kick off?
Qingdao Youth Island vs Beijing Guoan kicked off at 12:00 on Tuesday 19 May 2026 at Qingdao West Coast University Town Stadium.
What was the final score in Qingdao Youth Island vs Beijing Guoan?
Qingdao Youth Island 1 - 1 Beijing Guoan.
Where is Qingdao Youth Island vs Beijing Guoan being played?
The match is being played at Qingdao West Coast University Town Stadium.
What competition is Qingdao Youth Island vs Beijing Guoan part of?
Qingdao Youth Island vs Beijing Guoan is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Qingdao Youth Island vs Beijing Guoan?
Our statistical model gives Qingdao Youth Island a 32% chance of winning, Beijing Guoan a 37% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Beijing Guoan the favourite.
Will both teams score in Qingdao Youth Island vs Beijing Guoan?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Qingdao Youth Island and Beijing Guoan will score (BTTS).
Will Qingdao Youth Island vs Beijing Guoan have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Qingdao Youth Island and Beijing Guoan?
Record (4 meetings): Qingdao Youth Island 0W | Draws 1 | Beijing Guoan 3W.
What form are Qingdao Youth Island and Beijing Guoan in?
Qingdao Youth Island (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-D-L-W. Beijing Guoan (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 2.10 | L5 W-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Qingdao Youth Island's attack rating (0.67) and Beijing Guoan's defence rating (0.89), the model arrives at 1.01 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Beijing Guoan's attack versus Qingdao Youth Island's defence, projects 1.11 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.8%), 0-1 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Beijing Guoan Win
32%
3.10
31%
3.27
37%
2.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
13.3%
Away win
1 – 0
12.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.01
Qingdao Youth Island xG
Total xG
2.12
1.11
Beijing Guoan xG
3.10
32%
Home win
3.27
31%
Draw
2.69
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.33
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
33%
3.02
36%
2.75
Win to Nil
11%
9.37
14%
7.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.1 | 13.3 | 7.4 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.2 | 13.5 | 7.4 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 6.8 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Qingdao Youth Island vs Beijing Guoan?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Qingdao Youth Island and Beijing Guoan expected to score?
The model projects 1.01 expected goals for Qingdao Youth Island and 1.11 for Beijing Guoan, a combined total of 2.12.
How confident is the prediction model for Qingdao Youth Island vs Beijing Guoan?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 60 outings, Qingdao Youth Island have picked up 1.20 PPG on a 18W 18D 24L record — W-L-D-L-W across the most recent five.
Beijing Guoan's form line: 33W 14D 13L from 60 games, 1.88 PPG, last five W-L-L-W-W.
Put side by side, Beijing Guoan are the form team by 0.68 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Qingdao Youth Island.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Qingdao Youth Island have posted 1.30 PPG from 30 outings (9W 12D 9L).
On the road, Beijing Guoan have gone 13W 9D 8L from 30 away games — 1.60 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Qingdao Youth Island are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.68 conceded per game recently; Beijing Guoan are on 2.23 scored and 1.35 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Qingdao Youth Island have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Beijing Guoan in 65%.
Last 60 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Qingdao Youth Island
Current Season
Beijing Guoan
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Qingdao Youth Island and Beijing Guoan in coming into this match?
Qingdao Youth Island have gone 18W 18D 24L in their last 60 games (1.20 PPG), while Beijing Guoan have gone 33W 14D 13L in their last 60 (1.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Qingdao Youth Island at home or Beijing Guoan away?
Beijing Guoan's away record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Qingdao Youth Island at home: 1.30 PPG; Beijing Guoan away: 1.60 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Qingdao Youth Island and Beijing Guoan runs to 5 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 19 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Apr 2024, when Beijing Guoan won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Qingdao Youth Island's record when hosting Beijing Guoan specifically: 0W 2D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
0
Qingdao Youth Island
2
Draws
3
Beijing Guoan
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Qingdao Youth Island and Beijing Guoan?
From 5 meetings on record, Qingdao Youth Island have won 0, Beijing Guoan have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Qingdao Youth Island and Beijing Guoan last play each other?
They last met on 19 May 2026, when Qingdao Youth Island 1-1 Beijing Guoan.
Who has won more matches between Qingdao Youth Island and Beijing Guoan?
Beijing Guoan have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Qingdao Youth Island are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Beijing Guoan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Qingdao Youth Island 60%, Beijing Guoan 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Qingdao Youth Island) and 60% (Beijing Guoan). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 47% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Qingdao Youth Island home games / Beijing Guoan away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Qingdao Youth Island play Beijing Guoan?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Qingdao Youth Island's games and 60% of Beijing Guoan's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Qingdao Youth Island vs Beijing Guoan usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Qingdao Youth Island's matches and 60% of Beijing Guoan's.
Do Qingdao Youth Island and Beijing Guoan tend to score early?
Qingdao Youth Island have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Beijing Guoan in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Qingdao Youth Island and Beijing Guoan share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Qingdao Youth Island and Beijing Guoan finished level at 1-1 at Qingdao West Coast University Town Stadium, Regular Season - 13, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Qingdao Youth Island 1.01 xG and Beijing Guoan 1.11 xG, a combined 2.12. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Qingdao Youth Island attack 0.67 / defence 0.83 against Beijing Guoan attack 1.07 / defence 0.89, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Qingdao Youth Island 32% | Draw 31% | Beijing Guoan 37%, with Beijing Guoan to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Qingdao Youth Island 57%, Beijing Guoan 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Qingdao Youth Island's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Beijing Guoan's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Beijing Guoan arrived the stronger side — 1.88 PPG against 1.20. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.