Qingdao Jonoon 4-2 Meizhou Kejia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Qingdao Jonoon at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Qingdao Jonoon vs Meizhou Kejia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Qingdao Youth Football Stadium plays host to Qingdao Jonoon versus Meizhou Kejia in Super League, Regular Season - 20. Kick-off: Sunday 28 July 2024 at 12:35 UTC.
Current Form
Qingdao Jonoon's overall Super League record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: L L W D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Qingdao Jonoon, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Qingdao Jonoon at Qingdao Youth Football Stadium this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Meizhou Kejia (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 Super League outings this term — 0.90 points per game. Last five: L L L W D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Meizhou Kejia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Meizhou Kejia's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.20 vs 0.90 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Qingdao Jonoon 1W, Meizhou Kejia 1W, 1D.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 3 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 10 Apr 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Qingdao Jonoon — key trading statistics (50 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 48% of games.
Meizhou Kejia — key trading statistics (50 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Qingdao Jonoon 40% versus Meizhou Kejia 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Qingdao Jonoon 44% | Meizhou Kejia 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Qingdao Jonoon 1.78 xG and Meizhou Kejia 1.53 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.907 / defence 1.287 | Meizhou Kejia attack 0.909 / defence 1.126. League average goals — home 1.745 / away 1.308. Data: 50 Qingdao Jonoon games / 50 Meizhou Kejia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Qingdao Jonoon 43% | Draw 24% | Meizhou Kejia 33%. Fair-value odds: Qingdao Jonoon 2.33 | Draw 4.17 | Meizhou Kejia 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.31. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.31 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.78 / 1.53) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Qingdao Jonoon at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Qingdao Jonoon if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.31 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 64% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 66% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Qingdao Jonoon 60% | Meizhou Kejia 30%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Qingdao Jonoon vs Meizhou Kejia | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Qingdao Youth Football Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 28 Jul 2024, 12:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Qingdao Jonoon 43% | Draw 24% | Meizhou Kejia 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 66% | xG Qingdao Jonoon 1.78 / Meizhou Kejia 1.53 • Poisson strength factors: Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.907 / def 1.287 | Meizhou Kejia attack 0.909 / def 1.126 | league avg home 1.745 / away 1.308 • Poisson stance: Qingdao Jonoon (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.78
Qingdao Jonoon xG
Expected Goals
1.53
Meizhou Kejia xG
66%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Qingdao Jonoon vs Meizhou Kejia kick off?
Qingdao Jonoon vs Meizhou Kejia kicked off at 12:35 on Sunday 28 July 2024 at Qingdao Youth Football Stadium.
What was the final score in Qingdao Jonoon vs Meizhou Kejia?
Qingdao Jonoon 4 - 2 Meizhou Kejia.
Where is Qingdao Jonoon vs Meizhou Kejia being played?
The match is being played at Qingdao Youth Football Stadium.
What competition is Qingdao Jonoon vs Meizhou Kejia part of?
Qingdao Jonoon vs Meizhou Kejia is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Qingdao Jonoon vs Meizhou Kejia?
Our statistical model gives Qingdao Jonoon a 43% chance of winning, Meizhou Kejia a 33% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Qingdao Jonoon the favourite.
Will both teams score in Qingdao Jonoon vs Meizhou Kejia?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Qingdao Jonoon and Meizhou Kejia will score (BTTS).
Will Qingdao Jonoon vs Meizhou Kejia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Qingdao Jonoon and Meizhou Kejia?
Record (3 meetings): Qingdao Jonoon 1W | Draws 1 | Meizhou Kejia 1W.
What form are Qingdao Jonoon and Meizhou Kejia in?
Qingdao Jonoon (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-L-W-D-L. Meizhou Kejia (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Qingdao Jonoon's attack at 0.91x the league average against Meizhou Kejia's defence at 1.13x — combine the two and it projects 1.78 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Meizhou Kejia's attack (0.91x) against Qingdao Jonoon's defence (1.29x) — and the away total comes out at 1.53.
These ratings are built from 50/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-2 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Qingdao Jonoon Win
43%
2.31
24%
4.20
33%
3.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
1 – 2
7.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.78
Qingdao Jonoon xG
Total xG
3.31
1.53
Meizhou Kejia xG
2.31
43%
Home win
4.20
24%
Draw
3.04
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.52
34%
BTTS No
2.91
Clean Sheet
22%
4.62
17%
5.93
Win to Nil
9%
10.66
6%
18.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 5.6 | 4.3 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 9.9 | 7.6 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 8.9 | 6.8 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 5.3 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.3 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Qingdao Jonoon vs Meizhou Kejia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are Qingdao Jonoon and Meizhou Kejia expected to score?
The model projects 1.78 expected goals for Qingdao Jonoon and 1.53 for Meizhou Kejia, a combined total of 3.31.
How confident is the prediction model for Qingdao Jonoon vs Meizhou Kejia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Qingdao Jonoon's recent record stands at 12W 11D 27L from 50 games, a 0.94 PPG return, with L-L-W-D-L in the last five. The sample for Qingdao Jonoon is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Meizhou Kejia, meanwhile, have gone 12W 15D 23L across 50 games — 1.02 PPG, with L-L-L-W-D in their last five. The sample for Meizhou Kejia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.94 PPG for Qingdao Jonoon against 1.02 for Meizhou Kejia. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Qingdao Jonoon have managed 10W 5D 9L from 24 games — 1.46 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 0.94 PPG overall — Qingdao Jonoon are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Meizhou Kejia's away record stands at 4W 7D 13L across 24 trips, a 0.79 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Qingdao Jonoon come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Qingdao Jonoon are averaging 1.02 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; Meizhou Kejia are on 1.16 scored and 1.72 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Meizhou Kejia in 60%.
Last 50 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Qingdao Jonoon
Blended
Meizhou Kejia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Qingdao Jonoon and Meizhou Kejia in coming into this match?
Qingdao Jonoon have gone 12W 11D 27L in their last 50 games (0.94 PPG), while Meizhou Kejia have gone 12W 15D 23L in their last 50 (1.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Qingdao Jonoon at home or Meizhou Kejia away?
Qingdao Jonoon's home record (1.46 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Qingdao Jonoon at home: 1.46 PPG; Meizhou Kejia away: 0.79 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since May 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 4 October 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Qingdao Jonoon have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Meizhou Kejia — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Qingdao Jonoon
2
Draws
2
Meizhou Kejia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Qingdao Jonoon and Meizhou Kejia?
From 6 meetings on record, Qingdao Jonoon have won 2, Meizhou Kejia have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Qingdao Jonoon and Meizhou Kejia last play each other?
They last met on 4 October 2025, when Meizhou Kejia 1-0 Qingdao Jonoon.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Qingdao Jonoon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Meizhou Kejia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Qingdao Jonoon 50%, Meizhou Kejia 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 58% for Qingdao Jonoon and 62% for Meizhou Kejia. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 54% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Qingdao Jonoon have failed to score in 29% of games; Meizhou Kejia in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Qingdao Jonoon home games / Meizhou Kejia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Qingdao Jonoon play Meizhou Kejia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Qingdao Jonoon's recent matches and 58% of Meizhou Kejia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Qingdao Jonoon vs Meizhou Kejia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Qingdao Jonoon's matches and 62% of Meizhou Kejia's.
Do Qingdao Jonoon and Meizhou Kejia tend to score early?
Qingdao Jonoon have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Meizhou Kejia in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Qingdao Jonoon cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over Meizhou Kejia.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Qingdao Jonoon beat Meizhou Kejia 4-2 at Qingdao Youth Football Stadium, Regular Season - 20, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Qingdao Jonoon 1.78 xG and Meizhou Kejia 1.53 xG, a combined 3.31. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. Qingdao Jonoon beat their projection by 2.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.91 / defence 1.29 against Meizhou Kejia attack 0.91 / defence 1.13, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Qingdao Jonoon 43% | Draw 24% | Meizhou Kejia 33%, with Qingdao Jonoon to win its most likely call at 43%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Qingdao Jonoon 44%, Meizhou Kejia 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Qingdao Jonoon's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did.
Meizhou Kejia's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Qingdao Jonoon 0.94 PPG, Meizhou Kejia 1.02 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Qingdao Jonoon win broke the near-deadlock. Qingdao Jonoon (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.54 average — above their attacking norm. Meizhou Kejia (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.08 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 2.04 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.