Qingdao Youth Island 3-3 Meizhou Kejia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Qingdao Youth Island at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Qingdao Youth Island vs Meizhou Kejia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Qingdao West Coast University City Stadium plays host to Qingdao Youth Island versus Meizhou Kejia in Super League, Regular Season - 24. Kick-off: Sunday 21 July 2024 at 11:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Qingdao Youth Island have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: L L L L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Qingdao Youth Island, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Qingdao Youth Island have posted 2W 3D 5L at Qingdao West Coast University City Stadium — 0.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Meizhou Kejia (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 Super League outings this term — 0.80 points per game. Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Meizhou Kejia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Meizhou Kejia away from home this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.80 vs 0.80 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Qingdao Youth Island, 0 for Meizhou Kejia and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Apr 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Qingdao Youth Island — key trading statistics (19 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%; they fail to score in 37% of games.
Meizhou Kejia — key trading statistics (19 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 47% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Qingdao Youth Island 58% versus Meizhou Kejia 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Qingdao Youth Island 53% | Meizhou Kejia 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Qingdao Youth Island 1.58 xG and Meizhou Kejia 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Qingdao Youth Island attack 0.895 / defence 1.221 | Meizhou Kejia attack 0.760 / defence 1.036. League average goals — home 1.703 / away 1.308. Data: 19 Qingdao Youth Island games / 49 Meizhou Kejia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Qingdao Youth Island 45% | Draw 27% | Meizhou Kejia 28%. Fair-value odds: Qingdao Youth Island 2.22 | Draw 3.70 | Meizhou Kejia 3.57. Qingdao Youth Island hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Qingdao Youth Island as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Qingdao Youth Island if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.79 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Qingdao Youth Island 50% | Meizhou Kejia 20% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Qingdao Youth Island vs Meizhou Kejia | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Qingdao West Coast University City Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Jul 2024, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Qingdao Youth Island 45% | Draw 27% | Meizhou Kejia 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 57% | xG Qingdao Youth Island 1.58 / Meizhou Kejia 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Qingdao Youth Island attack 0.895 / def 1.221 | Meizhou Kejia attack 0.760 / def 1.036 | league avg home 1.703 / away 1.308 • Poisson stance: Qingdao Youth Island (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.58
Qingdao Youth Island xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Meizhou Kejia xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Qingdao Youth Island vs Meizhou Kejia kick off?
Qingdao Youth Island vs Meizhou Kejia kicked off at 11:00 on Sunday 21 July 2024 at Qingdao West Coast University City Stadium.
What was the final score in Qingdao Youth Island vs Meizhou Kejia?
Qingdao Youth Island 3 - 3 Meizhou Kejia.
Where is Qingdao Youth Island vs Meizhou Kejia being played?
The match is being played at Qingdao West Coast University City Stadium.
What competition is Qingdao Youth Island vs Meizhou Kejia part of?
Qingdao Youth Island vs Meizhou Kejia is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Qingdao Youth Island vs Meizhou Kejia?
Our statistical model gives Qingdao Youth Island a 45% chance of winning, Meizhou Kejia a 28% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Qingdao Youth Island the favourite.
Will both teams score in Qingdao Youth Island vs Meizhou Kejia?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Qingdao Youth Island and Meizhou Kejia will score (BTTS).
Will Qingdao Youth Island vs Meizhou Kejia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Qingdao Youth Island and Meizhou Kejia?
Record (1 meetings): Qingdao Youth Island 0W | Draws 1 | Meizhou Kejia 0W.
What form are Qingdao Youth Island and Meizhou Kejia in?
Qingdao Youth Island (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-L-L-L-W. Meizhou Kejia (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Qingdao Youth Island's attack at 0.90x the league average against Meizhou Kejia's defence at 1.04x — combine the two and it projects 1.58 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Meizhou Kejia's attack (0.76x) against Qingdao Youth Island's defence (1.22x) — and the away total comes out at 1.21.
These ratings are built from 19/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-0 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Qingdao Youth Island Win
45%
2.24
27%
3.68
28%
3.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.58
Qingdao Youth Island xG
Total xG
2.79
1.21
Meizhou Kejia xG
2.24
45%
Home win
3.68
27%
Draw
3.55
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.32
Clean Sheet
30%
3.36
21%
4.85
Win to Nil
13%
7.53
6%
17.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 7.4 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 11.7 | 7.1 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 9.3 | 5.6 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 4.9 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Qingdao Youth Island vs Meizhou Kejia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Qingdao Youth Island and Meizhou Kejia expected to score?
The model projects 1.58 expected goals for Qingdao Youth Island and 1.21 for Meizhou Kejia, a combined total of 2.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Qingdao Youth Island vs Meizhou Kejia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Qingdao Youth Island come into this having played 19 games, going 4W 4D 11L for 0.84 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-W. The sample for Qingdao Youth Island is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Meizhou Kejia sit at 0.84 PPG from 19 outings (3W 7D 9L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-W across their last five. The sample for Meizhou Kejia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.84 PPG for Qingdao Youth Island against 0.84 for Meizhou Kejia. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Qingdao Youth Island's home form reads 1W 2D 5L across 8 games on their own ground, a 0.62 PPG return.
Away from home, Meizhou Kejia have taken 1.00 points per game from 8 outings (2W 2D 4L).
Attack vs Defence
Qingdao Youth Island are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 2.11 conceded per game recently; Meizhou Kejia are on 0.68 scored and 1.53 conceded.
Last 19 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Qingdao Youth Island
Blended
Meizhou Kejia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Qingdao Youth Island and Meizhou Kejia in coming into this match?
Qingdao Youth Island have gone 4W 4D 11L in their last 19 games (0.84 PPG), while Meizhou Kejia have gone 3W 7D 9L in their last 19 (0.84 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Qingdao Youth Island at home or Meizhou Kejia away?
Meizhou Kejia's away record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Qingdao Youth Island at home: 0.62 PPG; Meizhou Kejia away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Qingdao Youth Island or Meizhou Kejia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Qingdao Youth Island have kept a clean sheet in 11% of their recent games, Meizhou Kejia in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 20 September 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Qingdao Youth Island go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Qingdao Youth Island have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Meizhou Kejia — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Qingdao Youth Island
2
Draws
0
Meizhou Kejia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Qingdao Youth Island and Meizhou Kejia?
From 4 meetings on record, Qingdao Youth Island have won 2, Meizhou Kejia have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Qingdao Youth Island and Meizhou Kejia last play each other?
They last met on 20 September 2025, when Meizhou Kejia 1-2 Qingdao Youth Island.
Who has won more matches between Qingdao Youth Island and Meizhou Kejia?
Qingdao Youth Island have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Qingdao Youth Island are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Meizhou Kejia see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Qingdao Youth Island 50%, Meizhou Kejia 25% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Qingdao Youth Island) and 50% (Meizhou Kejia).
On the defensive side: Meizhou Kejia in 38%; Qingdao Youth Island have failed to score in 50% of games; Meizhou Kejia in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Qingdao Youth Island home games / Meizhou Kejia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Qingdao Youth Island play Meizhou Kejia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Qingdao Youth Island's recent matches and 25% of Meizhou Kejia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Qingdao Youth Island vs Meizhou Kejia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Qingdao Youth Island's recent games and 50% of Meizhou Kejia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Qingdao Youth Island and Meizhou Kejia tend to score early?
Qingdao Youth Island have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Meizhou Kejia in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Qingdao Youth Island and Meizhou Kejia share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Qingdao Youth Island and Meizhou Kejia finished level at 3-3 at Qingdao West Coast University City Stadium, Regular Season - 24, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Qingdao Youth Island 1.58 xG and Meizhou Kejia 1.21 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Qingdao Youth Island beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Meizhou Kejia outscored their 1.21 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Qingdao Youth Island attack 0.90 / defence 1.22 against Meizhou Kejia attack 0.76 / defence 1.04, drawn from 19/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Qingdao Youth Island 45% | Draw 27% | Meizhou Kejia 28%, with Qingdao Youth Island to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Qingdao Youth Island 53%, Meizhou Kejia 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Qingdao Youth Island's trading profile (19 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Meizhou Kejia's trading profile (19 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Qingdao Youth Island 0.84 PPG, Meizhou Kejia 0.84 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Qingdao Youth Island (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.38 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Meizhou Kejia (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.75 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.62 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.