Qingdao Huanghai 0-1 Henan Jianye – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Henan Jianye at 46% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Qingdao Huanghai vs Henan Jianye encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League clash, Regular Season - 13 as Qingdao Huanghai welcome Henan Jianye to Guangzhou Higher Education Mega Center Central Stadium. Kick-off is set for Sunday 8 August 2021 at 13:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Qingdao Huanghai — All Games: 1W 0D 9L from 10 Super League outings this season, averaging 0.30 points per game. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.40 goals per game and conceding 2.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.70 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Qingdao Huanghai, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Guangzhou Higher Education Mega Center Central Stadium, Qingdao Huanghai have gone 2W 0D 4L this season (6 games, 1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 2.83 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.30 — Qingdao Huanghai are significantly better at Guangzhou Higher Education Mega Center Central Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Henan Jianye stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Super League matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D W L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Henan Jianye, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Henan Jianye away from home this season: 0W 3D 3L from 6 away games — 0.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Henan Jianye — 1.00 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.30 vs 0.30). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Qingdao Huanghai, 1 for Henan Jianye and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Jul 2021, ended 0–2 with Henan Jianye winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Qingdao Huanghai trading profile (12 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); they fail to score in 67% of games.
Henan Jianye trading profile (12 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 17% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Qingdao Huanghai 25% versus Henan Jianye 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Qingdao Huanghai 42% | Henan Jianye 25%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Qingdao Huanghai 0.74 xG and Henan Jianye 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Qingdao Huanghai attack 0.660 / defence 1.914 | Henan Jianye attack 0.532 / defence 1.115. League average goals — home 1.003 / away 1.276. Qingdao Huanghai's attack strength of 0.660 is below the league average — the 0.74 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 12 Qingdao Huanghai games / 12 Henan Jianye games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Qingdao Huanghai 17% | Draw 36% | Henan Jianye 46%. Fair-value odds: Qingdao Huanghai 5.88 | Draw 2.78 | Henan Jianye 2.17. Henan Jianye hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (36%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.04. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.04 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Henan Jianye as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 36% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Henan Jianye offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.04 combined xG gives a 33% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 42% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Qingdao Huanghai 33% | Henan Jianye 33% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Qingdao Huanghai vs Henan Jianye | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Guangzhou Higher Education Mega Center Central Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 8 Aug 2021, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Qingdao Huanghai 17% | Draw 36% | Henan Jianye 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 42% | xG Qingdao Huanghai 0.74 / Henan Jianye 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: Qingdao Huanghai attack 0.660 / def 1.914 | Henan Jianye attack 0.532 / def 1.115 | league avg home 1.003 / away 1.276 • Poisson stance: Henan Jianye (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.74
Qingdao Huanghai xG
Expected Goals
1.30
Henan Jianye xG
42%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Qingdao Huanghai vs Henan Jianye kick off?
Qingdao Huanghai vs Henan Jianye kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 8 August 2021 at Guangzhou Higher Education Mega Center Central Stadium.
What was the final score in Qingdao Huanghai vs Henan Jianye?
Qingdao Huanghai 0 - 1 Henan Jianye.
Where is Qingdao Huanghai vs Henan Jianye being played?
The match is being played at Guangzhou Higher Education Mega Center Central Stadium.
What competition is Qingdao Huanghai vs Henan Jianye part of?
Qingdao Huanghai vs Henan Jianye is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Qingdao Huanghai vs Henan Jianye?
Our statistical model gives Qingdao Huanghai a 17% chance of winning, Henan Jianye a 46% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw — making Henan Jianye the favourite.
Will both teams score in Qingdao Huanghai vs Henan Jianye?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Qingdao Huanghai and Henan Jianye will score (BTTS).
Will Qingdao Huanghai vs Henan Jianye have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Qingdao Huanghai and Henan Jianye?
Record (1 meetings): Qingdao Huanghai 0W | Draws 0 | Henan Jianye 1W.
What form are Qingdao Huanghai and Henan Jianye in?
Qingdao Huanghai (all comps): 1W-0D-9L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 2.70 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Henan Jianye (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Qingdao Huanghai's attacking strength (0.66x league average) is weighed against Henan Jianye's defensive record (1.11x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.74. The same calculation in reverse, Henan Jianye's attack versus Qingdao Huanghai's defence, projects 1.30 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 12/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-1, at 15.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.7%), 1-1 (14.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Henan Jianye Win
17%
5.72
36%
2.75
46%
2.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
16.9%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.0%
Draw
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.74
Qingdao Huanghai xG
Total xG
2.04
1.30
Henan Jianye xG
5.72
17%
Home win
2.75
36%
Draw
2.17
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.40
58%
BTTS No
1.72
Clean Sheet
27%
3.67
48%
2.09
Win to Nil
5%
20.98
22%
4.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.0 | 16.9 | 11.0 | 4.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 12.5 | 8.1 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 3.6 | 4.6 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Qingdao Huanghai vs Henan Jianye?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Qingdao Huanghai and Henan Jianye expected to score?
The model projects 0.74 expected goals for Qingdao Huanghai and 1.30 for Henan Jianye, a combined total of 2.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Qingdao Huanghai vs Henan Jianye?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 12 outings, Qingdao Huanghai have picked up 0.58 PPG on a 2W 1D 9L record — L-L-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Qingdao Huanghai is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Henan Jianye's form line: 3W 5D 4L from 12 games, 1.17 PPG, last five D-W-L-W-L. The sample for Henan Jianye is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Henan Jianye are the form team by 0.59 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Qingdao Huanghai.
Venue Form
On home soil, Qingdao Huanghai have posted 1.00 PPG from 6 outings (2W 0D 4L). That's noticeably better than their 0.58 PPG overall — Qingdao Huanghai are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Henan Jianye have gone 0W 3D 3L from 6 away games — 0.50 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.17 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Henan Jianye's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Qingdao Huanghai come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Qingdao Huanghai are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 2.33 conceded per game recently; Henan Jianye are on 0.92 scored and 1.08 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Qingdao Huanghai have seen both teams score in 25% of their recent games.
Last 12 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Qingdao Huanghai
Blended
Henan Jianye
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Qingdao Huanghai and Henan Jianye in coming into this match?
Qingdao Huanghai have gone 2W 1D 9L in their last 12 games (0.58 PPG), while Henan Jianye have gone 3W 5D 4L in their last 12 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Qingdao Huanghai at home or Henan Jianye away?
Qingdao Huanghai's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Qingdao Huanghai at home: 1.00 PPG; Henan Jianye away: 0.50 PPG.
Have Qingdao Huanghai or Henan Jianye been keeping clean sheets recently?
Qingdao Huanghai have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Henan Jianye in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 August 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Qingdao Huanghai
0
Draws
2
Henan Jianye
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Qingdao Huanghai and Henan Jianye?
From 2 meetings on record, Qingdao Huanghai have won 0, Henan Jianye have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Qingdao Huanghai and Henan Jianye last play each other?
They last met on 8 August 2021, when Qingdao Huanghai 0-1 Henan Jianye.
Who has won more matches between Qingdao Huanghai and Henan Jianye?
Henan Jianye have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Qingdao Huanghai are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Henan Jianye see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Qingdao Huanghai 33% BTTS, Henan Jianye 33%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Qingdao Huanghai) and 17% (Henan Jianye).
On the defensive side: Henan Jianye in 33%; Qingdao Huanghai have failed to score in 50% of games; Henan Jianye in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Qingdao Huanghai home games / Henan Jianye away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Qingdao Huanghai play Henan Jianye?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Qingdao Huanghai's recent matches and 33% of Henan Jianye's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Qingdao Huanghai vs Henan Jianye usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Qingdao Huanghai's recent games and 17% of Henan Jianye's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Qingdao Huanghai and Henan Jianye tend to score early?
Qingdao Huanghai have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Henan Jianye in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Henan Jianye edge out Qingdao Huanghai 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Henan Jianye beat Qingdao Huanghai 0-1 at Guangzhou Higher Education Mega Center Central Stadium, Regular Season - 13, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Qingdao Huanghai 0.74 xG and Henan Jianye 1.30 xG, a combined 2.04. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Qingdao Huanghai attack 0.66 / defence 1.91 against Henan Jianye attack 0.53 / defence 1.11, drawn from 12/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Qingdao Huanghai 17% | Draw 36% | Henan Jianye 46%, with Henan Jianye to win its most likely call at 46%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 64% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 33% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Qingdao Huanghai 42%, Henan Jianye 25%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 38%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Qingdao Huanghai's trading profile (12 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 25% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 67% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Henan Jianye's trading profile (12 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Henan Jianye arrived the stronger side — 1.17 PPG against 0.58. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Qingdao Huanghai (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.83 average — tighter than their form line. Henan Jianye (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.