Guangzhou Evergrande FC 2-0 Henan Jianye – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Guangzhou Evergrande FC at 56% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Guangzhou Evergrande FC vs Henan Jianye encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Guangzhou Evergrande FC and Henan Jianye meet at Tianhe Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 12. This fixture gets under way on Thursday 5 August 2021 at 13:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Guangzhou Evergrande FC have collected 2.00 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: W D W L W. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Guangzhou Evergrande FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Tianhe Stadium, Guangzhou Evergrande FC have gone 4W 1D 0L this season (5 games, 2.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.80 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.00 — Guangzhou Evergrande FC are significantly better at Tianhe Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Henan Jianye (all games): 3W 5D 2L across 10 Super League outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: D D W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Henan Jianye, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Henan Jianye's away record: 0W 3D 2L from 5 road trips in Super League this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 2 clean sheets from 5 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The points-per-game gap of 0.60 in Guangzhou Evergrande FC's favour (2.00 vs 1.40) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Guangzhou Evergrande FC, 0 for Henan Jianye and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Jul 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Guangzhou Evergrande FC half-time and goal-timing data (11 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
Henan Jianye half-time and goal-timing data (11 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Guangzhou Evergrande FC 64% versus Henan Jianye 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Guangzhou Evergrande FC 64% | Henan Jianye 27%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Guangzhou Evergrande FC 1.78 xG and Henan Jianye 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Guangzhou Evergrande FC attack 1.592 / defence 1.120 | Henan Jianye attack 0.604 / defence 1.077. League average goals — home 1.040 / away 1.252. Guangzhou Evergrande FC carry an above-average attack strength of 1.592 — their λ of 1.78 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 11 Guangzhou Evergrande FC games / 11 Henan Jianye games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Guangzhou Evergrande FC 56% | Draw 29% | Henan Jianye 14%. Fair-value odds: Guangzhou Evergrande FC 1.79 | Draw 3.45 | Henan Jianye 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Guangzhou Evergrande FC (56%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.63. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.63 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Guangzhou Evergrande FC at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 29% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.63 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 2.9 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Guangzhou Evergrande FC 80% | Henan Jianye 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Guangzhou Evergrande FC vs Henan Jianye | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Tianhe Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 5 Aug 2021, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Guangzhou Evergrande FC 56% | Draw 29% | Henan Jianye 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 51% | xG Guangzhou Evergrande FC 1.78 / Henan Jianye 0.85 • Poisson strength factors: Guangzhou Evergrande FC attack 1.592 / def 1.120 | Henan Jianye attack 0.604 / def 1.077 | league avg home 1.040 / away 1.252 • Poisson stance: Guangzhou Evergrande FC (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.78
Guangzhou Evergrande FC xG
Expected Goals
0.85
Henan Jianye xG
51%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Guangzhou Evergrande FC vs Henan Jianye kick off?
Guangzhou Evergrande FC vs Henan Jianye kicked off at 13:00 on Thursday 5 August 2021 at Tianhe Stadium.
What was the final score in Guangzhou Evergrande FC vs Henan Jianye?
Guangzhou Evergrande FC 2 - 0 Henan Jianye.
Where is Guangzhou Evergrande FC vs Henan Jianye being played?
The match is being played at Tianhe Stadium.
What competition is Guangzhou Evergrande FC vs Henan Jianye part of?
Guangzhou Evergrande FC vs Henan Jianye is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Guangzhou Evergrande FC vs Henan Jianye?
Our statistical model gives Guangzhou Evergrande FC a 56% chance of winning, Henan Jianye a 14% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Guangzhou Evergrande FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Guangzhou Evergrande FC vs Henan Jianye?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Guangzhou Evergrande FC and Henan Jianye will score (BTTS).
Will Guangzhou Evergrande FC vs Henan Jianye have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Guangzhou Evergrande FC and Henan Jianye?
Record (1 meetings): Guangzhou Evergrande FC 0W | Draws 1 | Henan Jianye 0W.
What form are Guangzhou Evergrande FC and Henan Jianye in?
Guangzhou Evergrande FC (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-W-L-W. Henan Jianye (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Guangzhou Evergrande FC's attacking strength (1.59x league average) is weighed against Henan Jianye's defensive record (1.08x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.78. Flip it around — Henan Jianye's attack (0.60x) against Guangzhou Evergrande FC's defence (1.12x) — and the away total comes out at 0.85.
These ratings are built from 11/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.3%. Close behind: 2-0 (11.4%), 1-0 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Guangzhou Evergrande FC Win
56%
1.77
29%
3.42
14%
6.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.8%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.4%
Home win
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.78
Guangzhou Evergrande FC xG
Total xG
2.63
0.85
Henan Jianye xG
1.77
56%
Home win
3.42
29%
Draw
6.97
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
43%
2.33
17%
5.95
Win to Nil
24%
4.14
2%
41.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.8 | 10.9 | 4.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.4 | 9.7 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.8 | 5.8 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.0 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Guangzhou Evergrande FC vs Henan Jianye?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Guangzhou Evergrande FC and Henan Jianye expected to score?
The model projects 1.78 expected goals for Guangzhou Evergrande FC and 0.85 for Henan Jianye, a combined total of 2.63.
How confident is the prediction model for Guangzhou Evergrande FC vs Henan Jianye?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Guangzhou Evergrande FC's recent record stands at 6W 3D 2L from 11 games, a 1.91 PPG return, with W-D-W-L-W in the last five. The sample for Guangzhou Evergrande FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Henan Jianye, meanwhile, have gone 3W 5D 3L across 11 games — 1.27 PPG, with D-D-W-L-W in their last five. The sample for Henan Jianye is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Guangzhou Evergrande FC by 0.64 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Henan Jianye heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Guangzhou Evergrande FC have managed 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — 2.60 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.91 PPG overall — Guangzhou Evergrande FC are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Henan Jianye's away record stands at 0W 3D 2L across 5 trips, a 0.60 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.27 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Henan Jianye's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Guangzhou Evergrande FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Guangzhou Evergrande FC are averaging 2.45 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Henan Jianye are on 1.00 scored and 1.00 conceded. Guangzhou Evergrande FC's scoring rate against Henan Jianye's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: Guangzhou Evergrande FC have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Defensively: Henan Jianye in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 11 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Guangzhou Evergrande FC
Blended
Henan Jianye
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Guangzhou Evergrande FC and Henan Jianye in coming into this match?
Guangzhou Evergrande FC have gone 6W 3D 2L in their last 11 games (1.91 PPG), while Henan Jianye have gone 3W 5D 3L in their last 11 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Guangzhou Evergrande FC at home or Henan Jianye away?
Guangzhou Evergrande FC's home record (2.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Guangzhou Evergrande FC at home: 2.60 PPG; Henan Jianye away: 0.60 PPG.
Have Guangzhou Evergrande FC or Henan Jianye been keeping clean sheets recently?
Guangzhou Evergrande FC have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Henan Jianye in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 November 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Guangzhou Evergrande FC have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Henan Jianye — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Guangzhou Evergrande FC
2
Draws
1
Henan Jianye
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Guangzhou Evergrande FC and Henan Jianye?
From 4 meetings on record, Guangzhou Evergrande FC have won 1, Henan Jianye have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Guangzhou Evergrande FC and Henan Jianye last play each other?
They last met on 26 November 2022, when Guangzhou Evergrande FC 1-1 Henan Jianye.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Guangzhou Evergrande FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 80% of the time.
Henan Jianye are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 40% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Guangzhou Evergrande FC 80%, Henan Jianye 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 80% (Guangzhou Evergrande FC) and 20% (Henan Jianye).
On the defensive side: Henan Jianye in 40%; Henan Jianye in 60%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Guangzhou Evergrande FC home games / Henan Jianye away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Guangzhou Evergrande FC play Henan Jianye?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 80% of Guangzhou Evergrande FC's games and 40% of Henan Jianye's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Guangzhou Evergrande FC vs Henan Jianye usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 80% of Guangzhou Evergrande FC's recent games and 20% of Henan Jianye's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Guangzhou Evergrande FC and Henan Jianye tend to score early?
Guangzhou Evergrande FC have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Henan Jianye in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Guangzhou Evergrande FC cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Henan Jianye.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Guangzhou Evergrande FC beat Henan Jianye 2-0 at Tianhe Stadium, Regular Season - 12, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Guangzhou Evergrande FC 1.78 xG and Henan Jianye 0.85 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Henan Jianye landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Guangzhou Evergrande FC attack 1.59 / defence 1.12 against Henan Jianye attack 0.60 / defence 1.08, drawn from 11/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Guangzhou Evergrande FC 56% | Draw 29% | Henan Jianye 14%, with Guangzhou Evergrande FC to win its most likely call at 56%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Guangzhou Evergrande FC 64%, Henan Jianye 27%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Guangzhou Evergrande FC's trading profile (11 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Henan Jianye's trading profile (11 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Guangzhou Evergrande FC arrived the stronger side — 1.91 PPG against 1.27. Form held, and they took the win. Guangzhou Evergrande FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.20 average — tighter than their form line. Henan Jianye (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.