Hangzhou Greentown 3-3 Shijiazhuang Y. J. – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hangzhou Greentown at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hangzhou Greentown vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League encounter, Regular Season - 25 sees Shijiazhuang Y. J. travel to Huzhou Olympic Sports Center to take on Hangzhou Greentown. The game is scheduled for Sunday 13 November 2022, 11:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Hangzhou Greentown — All Games: 5W 4D 1L from 10 Super League outings this season, averaging 1.90 points per game. Last five: W D W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Hangzhou Greentown, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Hangzhou Greentown have posted 6W 2D 2L at Huzhou Olympic Sports Center — 2.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Huzhou Olympic Sports Center. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Super League games this season, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have recorded 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D L W D L. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.50. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Shijiazhuang Y. J., so this record blends games from this season and last.
Shijiazhuang Y. J. away from home this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Hangzhou Greentown 1.90 PPG, Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Hangzhou Greentown, 0 for Shijiazhuang Y. J. and 1 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Aug 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Hangzhou Greentown in-play tendencies (26 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 18% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
Shijiazhuang Y. J. in-play tendencies (26 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hangzhou Greentown 46% versus Shijiazhuang Y. J. 46%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Hangzhou Greentown 35% | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hangzhou Greentown 1.57 xG and Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hangzhou Greentown attack 0.891 / defence 0.869 | Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 1.213 / defence 1.208. League average goals — home 1.454 / away 1.356. Shijiazhuang Y. J. bring a strong defensive rating of 1.208 — this is suppressing Hangzhou Greentown's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Shijiazhuang Y. J. have an above-average attack strength of 1.213 — the away xG of 1.43 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 24 Hangzhou Greentown games / 38 Shijiazhuang Y. J. games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hangzhou Greentown 40% | Draw 26% | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 34%. Fair-value odds: Hangzhou Greentown 2.50 | Draw 3.85 | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.00. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.00 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.57 / 1.43) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Hangzhou Greentown as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hangzhou Greentown offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.00 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Hangzhou Greentown 20% | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hangzhou Greentown vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Huzhou Olympic Sports Center • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Nov 2022, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hangzhou Greentown 40% | Draw 26% | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 61% | xG Hangzhou Greentown 1.57 / Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1.43 • Poisson strength factors: Hangzhou Greentown attack 0.891 / def 0.869 | Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 1.213 / def 1.208 | league avg home 1.454 / away 1.356 • Poisson stance: Hangzhou Greentown (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.57
Hangzhou Greentown xG
Expected Goals
1.43
Shijiazhuang Y. J. xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hangzhou Greentown vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. kick off?
Hangzhou Greentown vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. kicked off at 11:30 on Sunday 13 November 2022 at Huzhou Olympic Sports Center.
What was the final score in Hangzhou Greentown vs Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Hangzhou Greentown 3 - 3 Shijiazhuang Y. J..
Where is Hangzhou Greentown vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. being played?
The match is being played at Huzhou Olympic Sports Center.
What competition is Hangzhou Greentown vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. part of?
Hangzhou Greentown vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Hangzhou Greentown vs Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Our statistical model gives Hangzhou Greentown a 40% chance of winning, Shijiazhuang Y. J. a 34% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Hangzhou Greentown the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hangzhou Greentown vs Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Hangzhou Greentown and Shijiazhuang Y. J. will score (BTTS).
Will Hangzhou Greentown vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hangzhou Greentown and Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Record (1 meetings): Hangzhou Greentown 0W | Draws 1 | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 0W.
What form are Hangzhou Greentown and Shijiazhuang Y. J. in?
Hangzhou Greentown (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-W-L-W. Shijiazhuang Y. J. (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Hangzhou Greentown's attack at 0.89x the league average against Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s defence at 1.21x — combine the two and it projects 1.57 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s attack versus Hangzhou Greentown's defence, projects 1.43 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 24/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 1-2 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Hangzhou Greentown Win
40%
2.49
26%
3.91
34%
2.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
1 – 2
8.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.57
Hangzhou Greentown xG
Total xG
3.00
1.43
Shijiazhuang Y. J. xG
2.49
40%
Home win
3.91
26%
Draw
2.92
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.55
Clean Sheet
24%
4.18
21%
4.79
Win to Nil
10%
10.41
7%
13.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 7.1 | 5.1 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 11.2 | 8.0 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 8.8 | 6.3 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 4.6 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hangzhou Greentown vs Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Hangzhou Greentown and Shijiazhuang Y. J. expected to score?
The model projects 1.57 expected goals for Hangzhou Greentown and 1.43 for Shijiazhuang Y. J., a combined total of 3.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Hangzhou Greentown vs Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Hangzhou Greentown's recent record stands at 12W 10D 4L from 26 games, a 1.77 PPG return, with W-D-W-L-W in the last five. The sample for Hangzhou Greentown is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Shijiazhuang Y. J., meanwhile, have gone 7W 8D 11L across 26 games — 1.12 PPG, with D-L-W-D-L in their last five. The sample for Shijiazhuang Y. J. is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Hangzhou Greentown by 0.65 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Shijiazhuang Y. J. heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Hangzhou Greentown have managed 6W 3D 2L from 11 games — 1.91 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s away record stands at 4W 2D 5L across 11 trips, a 1.27 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hangzhou Greentown come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Hangzhou Greentown are averaging 1.54 goals scored and 0.77 conceded per game recently; Shijiazhuang Y. J. are on 1.19 scored and 1.42 conceded.
Defensively: Hangzhou Greentown have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 26 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hangzhou Greentown
Blended
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hangzhou Greentown and Shijiazhuang Y. J. in coming into this match?
Hangzhou Greentown have gone 12W 10D 4L in their last 26 games (1.77 PPG), while Shijiazhuang Y. J. have gone 7W 8D 11L in their last 26 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hangzhou Greentown at home or Shijiazhuang Y. J. away?
Hangzhou Greentown's home record (1.91 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hangzhou Greentown at home: 1.91 PPG; Shijiazhuang Y. J. away: 1.27 PPG.
Have Hangzhou Greentown or Shijiazhuang Y. J. been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hangzhou Greentown have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Shijiazhuang Y. J. in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Hangzhou Greentown and Shijiazhuang Y. J. runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 September 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 29 Oct 2023, when Hangzhou Greentown won 6-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Hangzhou Greentown's record when hosting Shijiazhuang Y. J. specifically: 1W 2D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Hangzhou Greentown
3
Draws
1
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hangzhou Greentown and Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
From 6 meetings on record, Hangzhou Greentown have won 2, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Hangzhou Greentown and Shijiazhuang Y. J. last play each other?
They last met on 22 September 2024, when Hangzhou Greentown 2-2 Shijiazhuang Y. J..
Who has won more matches between Hangzhou Greentown and Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Hangzhou Greentown have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Hangzhou Greentown are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
Shijiazhuang Y. J. are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hangzhou Greentown 18%, Shijiazhuang Y. J. 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 27% (Hangzhou Greentown) and 73% (Shijiazhuang Y. J.).
On the defensive side: Hangzhou Greentown keep a clean sheet in 64% of their matches; Hangzhou Greentown have failed to score in 36% of games; Shijiazhuang Y. J. in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hangzhou Greentown home games / Shijiazhuang Y. J. away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hangzhou Greentown play Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 18% of Hangzhou Greentown's recent matches and 54% of Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Hangzhou Greentown vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 27% of Hangzhou Greentown's recent games and 73% of Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hangzhou Greentown and Shijiazhuang Y. J. tend to score early?
Hangzhou Greentown have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Shijiazhuang Y. J. in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Hangzhou Greentown and Shijiazhuang Y. J. share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hangzhou Greentown and Shijiazhuang Y. J. finished level at 3-3 at Huzhou Olympic Sports Center, Regular Season - 25, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hangzhou Greentown 1.57 xG and Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1.43 xG, a combined 3.00. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Hangzhou Greentown beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Shijiazhuang Y. J. outscored their 1.43 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hangzhou Greentown attack 0.89 / defence 0.87 against Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 1.21 / defence 1.21, drawn from 24/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hangzhou Greentown 40% | Draw 26% | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 34%, with Hangzhou Greentown to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hangzhou Greentown 35%, Shijiazhuang Y. J. 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hangzhou Greentown's trading profile (26 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s trading profile (26 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Hangzhou Greentown arrived the stronger side — 1.77 PPG against 1.12. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Hangzhou Greentown (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.36 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 0.45 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Shijiazhuang Y. J. (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.82 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 2.09 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.