Hangzhou Greentown 3-3 Shandong Luneng – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hangzhou Greentown at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hangzhou Greentown vs Shandong Luneng fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Hangzhou Greentown and Shandong Luneng meet at Huanglong Sports Centre in Super League, Regular Season - 29. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 27 October 2024 at 07:30 UTC.
Form
Hangzhou Greentown (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 Super League fixtures this term — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D L D L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 2.50 conceded. However, 2.50 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Hangzhou Greentown at Huanglong Sports Centre this season: 6W 1D 3L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 3.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Hangzhou Greentown are significantly better at Huanglong Sports Centre than their overall form suggests.
Shandong Luneng's overall Super League record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: W L D W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.90. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Shandong Luneng's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Shandong Luneng arrive in superior form — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.40 vs 0.80) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 5 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Hangzhou Greentown, 3 for Shandong Luneng and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 25 May 2024, ended 0–3 with Shandong Luneng winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Hangzhou Greentown — key trading statistics (58 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 76% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Shandong Luneng — key trading statistics (58 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hangzhou Greentown 64% versus Shandong Luneng 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hangzhou Greentown 76% | Shandong Luneng 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hangzhou Greentown 2.23 xG and Shandong Luneng 1.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.251 / defence 1.323 | Shandong Luneng attack 1.047 / defence 0.949. League average goals — home 1.882 / away 1.290. Hangzhou Greentown carry an above-average attack strength of 1.251 — their λ of 2.23 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 58 Hangzhou Greentown games / 58 Shandong Luneng games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hangzhou Greentown 48% | Draw 21% | Shandong Luneng 31%. Fair-value odds: Hangzhou Greentown 2.08 | Draw 4.76 | Shandong Luneng 3.23. Hangzhou Greentown hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (21%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 76% | BTTS probability 75% | Total xG 4.02. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 76% — a total xG of 4.02 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 75% reflects that both xG figures (2.23 / 1.79) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Hangzhou Greentown as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Shandong Luneng (1.40 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 4.02 combined xG gives a 76% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 75%. Form rates corroborate: Hangzhou Greentown 90% | Shandong Luneng 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hangzhou Greentown vs Shandong Luneng | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Huanglong Sports Centre • Kick-off: Sunday 27 Oct 2024, 07:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hangzhou Greentown 48% | Draw 21% | Shandong Luneng 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 76% | BTTS 75% | xG Hangzhou Greentown 2.23 / Shandong Luneng 1.79 • Poisson strength factors: Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.251 / def 1.323 | Shandong Luneng attack 1.047 / def 0.949 | league avg home 1.882 / away 1.290 • Poisson stance: Hangzhou Greentown (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.23
Hangzhou Greentown xG
Expected Goals
1.79
Shandong Luneng xG
75%
BTTS
91%
Over 1.5
76%
Over 2.5
57%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hangzhou Greentown vs Shandong Luneng kick off?
Hangzhou Greentown vs Shandong Luneng kicked off at 07:30 on Sunday 27 October 2024 at Huanglong Sports Centre.
What was the final score in Hangzhou Greentown vs Shandong Luneng?
Hangzhou Greentown 3 - 3 Shandong Luneng.
Where is Hangzhou Greentown vs Shandong Luneng being played?
The match is being played at Huanglong Sports Centre.
What competition is Hangzhou Greentown vs Shandong Luneng part of?
Hangzhou Greentown vs Shandong Luneng is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Hangzhou Greentown vs Shandong Luneng?
Our statistical model gives Hangzhou Greentown a 48% chance of winning, Shandong Luneng a 31% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Hangzhou Greentown the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hangzhou Greentown vs Shandong Luneng?
Our model estimates a 75% probability that both Hangzhou Greentown and Shandong Luneng will score (BTTS).
Will Hangzhou Greentown vs Shandong Luneng have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 76%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hangzhou Greentown and Shandong Luneng?
Record (5 meetings): Hangzhou Greentown 2W | Draws 0 | Shandong Luneng 3W.
What form are Hangzhou Greentown and Shandong Luneng in?
Hangzhou Greentown (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 2.50 | L5 D-L-D-L-W. Shandong Luneng (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Hangzhou Greentown's attack at 1.25x the league average against Shandong Luneng's defence at 0.95x — combine the two and it projects 2.23 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Shandong Luneng's attack (1.05x) against Hangzhou Greentown's defence (1.32x) — and the away total comes out at 1.79.
These ratings are built from 58/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 8.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.0%), 2-2 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 23% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Hangzhou Greentown Win
48%
2.08
21%
4.78
31%
3.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.2%
Draw
2 – 2
7.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.23
Hangzhou Greentown xG
Total xG
4.02
1.79
Shandong Luneng xG
2.08
48%
Home win
4.78
21%
Draw
3.23
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
91%
Over 1.5
1.10
9%
Under 1.5
11.11
76%
Over 2.5
1.32
24%
Under 2.5
4.17
57%
Over 3.5
1.75
43%
Under 3.5
2.33
38%
Over 4.5
2.63
62%
Under 4.5
1.61
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
75%
BTTS Yes
1.34
25%
BTTS No
3.95
Clean Sheet
17%
5.97
11%
9.34
Win to Nil
8%
12.40
3%
30.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.8 | 3.2 | 2.9 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 4.0 | 7.2 | 6.4 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 8.0 | 7.1 | 4.3 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 6.0 | 5.3 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 3.3 | 3.0 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hangzhou Greentown vs Shandong Luneng?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.1%.
How many goals are Hangzhou Greentown and Shandong Luneng expected to score?
The model projects 2.23 expected goals for Hangzhou Greentown and 1.79 for Shandong Luneng, a combined total of 4.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Hangzhou Greentown vs Shandong Luneng?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Hangzhou Greentown's recent record stands at 27W 10D 21L from 58 games, a 1.57 PPG return, with D-L-D-L-W in the last five.
Shandong Luneng, meanwhile, have gone 28W 18D 12L across 58 games — 1.76 PPG, with W-L-D-W-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.57 PPG for Hangzhou Greentown against 1.76 for Shandong Luneng. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Hangzhou Greentown have managed 17W 4D 8L from 29 games — 1.90 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Shandong Luneng's away record stands at 9W 12D 8L across 29 trips, a 1.34 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.76 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Shandong Luneng's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hangzhou Greentown come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Hangzhou Greentown are averaging 1.84 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; Shandong Luneng are on 1.78 scored and 1.05 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Hangzhou Greentown have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 58 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hangzhou Greentown
Current Season
Shandong Luneng
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hangzhou Greentown and Shandong Luneng in coming into this match?
Hangzhou Greentown have gone 27W 10D 21L in their last 58 games (1.57 PPG), while Shandong Luneng have gone 28W 18D 12L in their last 58 (1.76 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hangzhou Greentown at home or Shandong Luneng away?
Hangzhou Greentown's home record (1.90 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hangzhou Greentown at home: 1.90 PPG; Shandong Luneng away: 1.34 PPG.
Have Hangzhou Greentown or Shandong Luneng been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hangzhou Greentown have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Shandong Luneng in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 9 times that we have on record, stretching back to June 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 20 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Shandong Luneng won 3-0 on 25 May 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Hangzhou Greentown have gone 3W 2D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Shandong Luneng — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
3
Hangzhou Greentown
2
Draws
4
Shandong Luneng
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hangzhou Greentown and Shandong Luneng?
From 9 meetings on record, Hangzhou Greentown have won 3, Shandong Luneng have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Hangzhou Greentown and Shandong Luneng last play each other?
They last met on 20 May 2026, when Hangzhou Greentown 4-1 Shandong Luneng.
Who has won more matches between Hangzhou Greentown and Shandong Luneng?
Shandong Luneng have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Hangzhou Greentown are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Shandong Luneng are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hangzhou Greentown 62%, Shandong Luneng 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 76% (Hangzhou Greentown) and 41% (Shandong Luneng). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 41% and 24% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Shandong Luneng in 34%; Shandong Luneng in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hangzhou Greentown home games / Shandong Luneng away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hangzhou Greentown play Shandong Luneng?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Hangzhou Greentown's games and 52% of Shandong Luneng's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Hangzhou Greentown vs Shandong Luneng usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 76% of Hangzhou Greentown's matches and 41% of Shandong Luneng's.
Do Hangzhou Greentown and Shandong Luneng tend to score early?
Hangzhou Greentown have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Shandong Luneng in 66% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Hangzhou Greentown and Shandong Luneng share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hangzhou Greentown and Shandong Luneng finished level at 3-3 at Huanglong Sports Centre, Regular Season - 29, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hangzhou Greentown 2.23 xG and Shandong Luneng 1.79 xG, a combined 4.02. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Shandong Luneng outscored their 1.79 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.25 / defence 1.32 against Shandong Luneng attack 1.05 / defence 0.95, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hangzhou Greentown 48% | Draw 21% | Shandong Luneng 31%, with Hangzhou Greentown to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 76%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 91% and landed. Over 3.5 was 57% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 75% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hangzhou Greentown 76%, Shandong Luneng 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hangzhou Greentown's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Shandong Luneng's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hangzhou Greentown 1.57 PPG, Shandong Luneng 1.76 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Hangzhou Greentown (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.28 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Shandong Luneng (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.21 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.24 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.