Guangzhou Evergrande FC 0-0 Tianjin Teda – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Guangzhou Evergrande FC at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Guangzhou Evergrande FC vs Tianjin Teda fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League encounter, Regular Season - 17 sees Tianjin Teda travel to Huadu Stadium to take on Guangzhou Evergrande FC. The game is scheduled for Friday 9 September 2022, 12:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Guangzhou Evergrande FC stand at 2W 1D 7L from 10 Super League matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L W D L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Guangzhou Evergrande FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Guangzhou Evergrande FC at Huadu Stadium this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Guangzhou Evergrande FC are significantly better at Huadu Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Tianjin Teda — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Super League fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W D D L L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.60. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Tianjin Teda, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Tianjin Teda away from home this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Guangzhou Evergrande FC 0.70 PPG, Tianjin Teda 1.10 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
In-Play Data
Guangzhou Evergrande FC trading profile (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Tianjin Teda trading profile (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Guangzhou Evergrande FC 40% versus Tianjin Teda 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Guangzhou Evergrande FC 45% | Tianjin Teda 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Guangzhou Evergrande FC 1.41 xG and Tianjin Teda 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Guangzhou Evergrande FC attack 0.836 / defence 0.903 | Tianjin Teda attack 0.905 / defence 1.172. League average goals — home 1.435 / away 1.266. Data: 30 Guangzhou Evergrande FC games / 30 Tianjin Teda games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Guangzhou Evergrande FC 45% | Draw 28% | Tianjin Teda 27%. Fair-value odds: Guangzhou Evergrande FC 2.22 | Draw 3.57 | Tianjin Teda 3.70. Guangzhou Evergrande FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Guangzhou Evergrande FC as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Guangzhou Evergrande FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.44 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Guangzhou Evergrande FC 30% | Tianjin Teda 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Guangzhou Evergrande FC vs Tianjin Teda | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Huadu Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 9 Sep 2022, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Guangzhou Evergrande FC 45% | Draw 28% | Tianjin Teda 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 49% | xG Guangzhou Evergrande FC 1.41 / Tianjin Teda 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Guangzhou Evergrande FC attack 0.836 / def 0.903 | Tianjin Teda attack 0.905 / def 1.172 | league avg home 1.435 / away 1.266 • Poisson stance: Guangzhou Evergrande FC (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
Guangzhou Evergrande FC xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Tianjin Teda xG
49%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Guangzhou Evergrande FC vs Tianjin Teda kick off?
Guangzhou Evergrande FC vs Tianjin Teda kicked off at 12:30 on Friday 9 September 2022 at Huadu Stadium.
What was the final score in Guangzhou Evergrande FC vs Tianjin Teda?
Guangzhou Evergrande FC 0 - 0 Tianjin Teda.
Where is Guangzhou Evergrande FC vs Tianjin Teda being played?
The match is being played at Huadu Stadium.
What competition is Guangzhou Evergrande FC vs Tianjin Teda part of?
Guangzhou Evergrande FC vs Tianjin Teda is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Guangzhou Evergrande FC vs Tianjin Teda?
Our statistical model gives Guangzhou Evergrande FC a 45% chance of winning, Tianjin Teda a 27% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Guangzhou Evergrande FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Guangzhou Evergrande FC vs Tianjin Teda?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Guangzhou Evergrande FC and Tianjin Teda will score (BTTS).
Will Guangzhou Evergrande FC vs Tianjin Teda have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Guangzhou Evergrande FC and Tianjin Teda?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Guangzhou Evergrande FC and Tianjin Teda in?
Guangzhou Evergrande FC (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-D-L-L. Tianjin Teda (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-D-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Guangzhou Evergrande FC's attack rating (0.84) and Tianjin Teda's defence rating (1.17), the model arrives at 1.41 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Tianjin Teda's attack versus Guangzhou Evergrande FC's defence, projects 1.03 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 30/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.6%), 0-0 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Guangzhou Evergrande FC Win
45%
2.23
28%
3.53
27%
3.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.3%
Home win
0 – 1
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
Guangzhou Evergrande FC xG
Total xG
2.44
1.03
Tianjin Teda xG
2.23
45%
Home win
3.53
28%
Draw
3.72
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.02
51%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
36%
2.81
24%
4.08
Win to Nil
16%
6.28
7%
15.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 9.0 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.3 | 12.7 | 6.5 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 8.9 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 4.2 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Guangzhou Evergrande FC vs Tianjin Teda?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Guangzhou Evergrande FC and Tianjin Teda expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Guangzhou Evergrande FC and 1.03 for Tianjin Teda, a combined total of 2.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Guangzhou Evergrande FC vs Tianjin Teda?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Guangzhou Evergrande FC come into this having played 38 games, going 16W 6D 16L for 1.42 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-L-L. The sample for Guangzhou Evergrande FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Tianjin Teda sit at 1.05 PPG from 38 outings (10W 10D 18L), a run that reads W-D-D-L-L across their last five. The sample for Tianjin Teda is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Guangzhou Evergrande FC on 1.42 PPG, Tianjin Teda on 1.05. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Guangzhou Evergrande FC's home form reads 10W 4D 5L across 19 games on their own ground, a 1.79 PPG return.
Away from home, Tianjin Teda have taken 1.05 points per game from 19 outings (5W 5D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Guangzhou Evergrande FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Guangzhou Evergrande FC are averaging 1.53 goals scored and 1.13 conceded per game recently; Tianjin Teda are on 1.03 scored and 1.47 conceded.
Last 38 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Guangzhou Evergrande FC
Blended
Tianjin Teda
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Guangzhou Evergrande FC and Tianjin Teda in coming into this match?
Guangzhou Evergrande FC have gone 16W 6D 16L in their last 38 games (1.42 PPG), while Tianjin Teda have gone 10W 10D 18L in their last 38 (1.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Guangzhou Evergrande FC at home or Tianjin Teda away?
Guangzhou Evergrande FC's home record (1.79 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Guangzhou Evergrande FC at home: 1.79 PPG; Tianjin Teda away: 1.05 PPG.
Have Guangzhou Evergrande FC or Tianjin Teda been keeping clean sheets recently?
Guangzhou Evergrande FC have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Tianjin Teda in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Guangzhou Evergrande FC and Tianjin Teda runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 December 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Guangzhou Evergrande FC
2
Draws
0
Tianjin Teda
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Guangzhou Evergrande FC and Tianjin Teda?
From 2 meetings on record, Guangzhou Evergrande FC have won 0, Tianjin Teda have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Guangzhou Evergrande FC and Tianjin Teda last play each other?
They last met on 5 December 2022, when Tianjin Teda 0-0 Guangzhou Evergrande FC.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Guangzhou Evergrande FC see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Tianjin Teda see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Guangzhou Evergrande FC 42%, Tianjin Teda 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Guangzhou Evergrande FC) and 32% (Tianjin Teda).
On the defensive side: Guangzhou Evergrande FC keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Guangzhou Evergrande FC have failed to score in 26% of games; Tianjin Teda in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Guangzhou Evergrande FC home games / Tianjin Teda away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Guangzhou Evergrande FC play Tianjin Teda?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Guangzhou Evergrande FC's recent matches and 47% of Tianjin Teda's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Guangzhou Evergrande FC vs Tianjin Teda usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Guangzhou Evergrande FC's recent games and 32% of Tianjin Teda's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Stalemate at Guangzhou Evergrande FC's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Guangzhou Evergrande FC and Tianjin Teda finished level at 0-0 at Huadu Stadium, Regular Season - 17, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Guangzhou Evergrande FC 1.41 xG and Tianjin Teda 1.03 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Guangzhou Evergrande FC fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Tianjin Teda landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Guangzhou Evergrande FC attack 0.84 / defence 0.90 against Tianjin Teda attack 0.91 / defence 1.17, drawn from 30/30 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Guangzhou Evergrande FC 45% | Draw 28% | Tianjin Teda 27%, with Guangzhou Evergrande FC to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Guangzhou Evergrande FC 45%, Tianjin Teda 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Guangzhou Evergrande FC's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Tianjin Teda's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Guangzhou Evergrande FC 1.42 PPG, Tianjin Teda 1.05 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Guangzhou Evergrande FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.68 scoring average — below par going forward. Tianjin Teda (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.95 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.37 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.