Dalian Aerbin 1-1 Shijiazhuang Y. J. – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 35% as Dalian Aerbin take on Shijiazhuang Y. J..
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Dalian Sports Center plays host to Dalian Aerbin versus Shijiazhuang Y. J. in Super League (matchday 6). Kick-off: Tuesday 9 May 2023 at 13:35 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Dalian Aerbin have collected 1.70 PPG across their last 10 games: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: W L L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Dalian Aerbin have posted 5W 2D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Shijiazhuang Y. J. (all games): 5W 3D 2L across their last 10 — 1.80 points per game. Last five: W D L W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.50. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Shijiazhuang Y. J. away from home: 6W 2D 2L from their last 10 away games — 2.00 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.60 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.70 vs 1.80 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Dalian Aerbin's last 10 home games and Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s last 10 away games) — Dalian Aerbin have seen both teams score in 80% of their games, Shijiazhuang Y. J. in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated the 4 H2H matches in our data: 1 wins for Dalian Aerbin, 2 for Shijiazhuang Y. J. and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 22 Nov 2022, ended Dalian Aerbin 1–1 Shijiazhuang Y. J. — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Data
Dalian Aerbin goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 56 games, 27 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Shijiazhuang Y. J. goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 56 games, 27 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 89% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dalian Aerbin 54% versus Shijiazhuang Y. J. 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dalian Aerbin 55% | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dalian Aerbin 1.17 xG and Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dalian Aerbin attack 0.998 / defence 0.891 | Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 1.103 / defence 0.980. League average goals — home 1.197 / away 1.173. Data: built from Dalian Aerbin's last 39 games and Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s last 39.
Result probabilities: Dalian Aerbin 33% | Draw 35% | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 32%. Fair-value odds: Dalian Aerbin 3.05 | Draw 2.84 | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 3.13. The draw (35%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.32. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.32 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's most likely outcome is the draw at 35% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 33% and away win at 32% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.32 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though recent form (Dalian Aerbin's last 10 home games and Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s last 10 away games) averaging 3.7 goals per game points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Dalian Aerbin 80% (last 10 home games) | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dalian Aerbin vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. | Competition: Super League, matchday 6 | Venue: Dalian Sports Center • Kick-off: Tuesday 9 May 2023 at 13:35 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dalian Aerbin 33% | Draw 35% | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% (Under 59%) | BTTS Yes 51% (No 49%) | xG Dalian Aerbin 1.17 / Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Dalian Aerbin attack 0.998 / def 0.891 | Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 1.103 / def 0.980 | league avg home 1.197 / away 1.173 • Poisson stance: Draw (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
Dalian Aerbin xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Shijiazhuang Y. J. xG
51%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Dalian Aerbin vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. FAQs
What time does Dalian Aerbin vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. kick off?
Dalian Aerbin vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. kicked off at 13:35 UK time on Tuesday 9 May 2023 at Dalian Sports Center.
What was the final score in Dalian Aerbin vs Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Dalian Aerbin 1 - 1 Shijiazhuang Y. J..
Where is Dalian Aerbin vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. being played?
The match is being played at Dalian Sports Center.
What competition is Dalian Aerbin vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. part of?
Dalian Aerbin vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. is a Super League fixture (matchday 6) (China).
Who is favourite to win Dalian Aerbin vs Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Our statistical model gives Dalian Aerbin a 33% chance of winning, Shijiazhuang Y. J. a 32% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making the draw the single most likely result.
Will both teams score in Dalian Aerbin vs Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Dalian Aerbin and Shijiazhuang Y. J. will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Dalian Aerbin vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (59%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Dalian Aerbin's attacking strength (1.00x league average) is weighed against Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s defensive record (0.98x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.17. Flip it around — Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s attack (1.10x) against Dalian Aerbin's defence (0.89x) — and the away total comes out at 1.15.
These ratings are built from Dalian Aerbin's last 39 games and Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s last 39 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.5%), 1-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
33%
3.05
35%
2.84
32%
3.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.5%
Home win
0 – 1
11.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
Dalian Aerbin xG
Total xG
2.32
1.15
Shijiazhuang Y. J. xG
3.05
33%
Home win
2.84
35%
Draw
3.13
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
32%
3.17
31%
3.23
Win to Nil
10%
9.65
10%
10.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.8 | 11.3 | 6.5 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 13.2 | 7.6 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 7.7 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.0 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Dalian Aerbin vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Dalian Aerbin vs Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Dalian Aerbin and Shijiazhuang Y. J. expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Dalian Aerbin and 1.15 for Shijiazhuang Y. J., a combined total of 2.32.
How confident is the prediction model for Dalian Aerbin vs Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Dalian Aerbin's recent record stands at 19W 11D 26L from 56 games, a 1.21 PPG return, with W-L-L-W-L in the last five.
Shijiazhuang Y. J., meanwhile, have gone 17W 17D 22L across 56 games — 1.21 PPG, with W-D-L-W-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.21 PPG for Dalian Aerbin against 1.21 for Shijiazhuang Y. J.. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Dalian Aerbin have managed 10W 6D 11L from their last 27 home games — 1.33 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s away record stands at 9W 6D 12L across their last 27 away games, a 1.22 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Dalian Aerbin are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.54 conceded per game recently; Shijiazhuang Y. J. are on 1.29 scored and 1.48 conceded.
Last 56 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dalian Aerbin
Current Season
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
Current Season
Dalian Aerbin (Home) vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Dalian Aerbin
Current Season
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
Current Season
❓ Dalian Aerbin vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. Form FAQs
What form are Dalian Aerbin and Shijiazhuang Y. J. in coming into this match?
Dalian Aerbin have gone 19W 11D 26L in their last 56 games (1.21 PPG), while Shijiazhuang Y. J. have gone 17W 17D 22L in their last 56 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dalian Aerbin at home or Shijiazhuang Y. J. away?
Dalian Aerbin's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dalian Aerbin at home: 1.33 PPG; Shijiazhuang Y. J. away: 1.22 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 6 H2H matches between Dalian Aerbin and Shijiazhuang Y. J., the earliest from December 2021. All of them came in Super League. The most recent in our data was on 9 August 2023, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Dalian Aerbin have gone 1W 1D 1L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Shijiazhuang Y. J. — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Dalian Aerbin
2
Draws
3
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
Recent Meetings
❓ Dalian Aerbin vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Dalian Aerbin and Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Dalian Aerbin have won 1, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Dalian Aerbin and Shijiazhuang Y. J. last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 9 August 2023: Shijiazhuang Y. J. 2-1 Dalian Aerbin.
Who has won more matches between Dalian Aerbin and Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Dalian Aerbin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Shijiazhuang Y. J. are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dalian Aerbin 59%, Shijiazhuang Y. J. 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Dalian Aerbin) and 70% (Shijiazhuang Y. J.). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 26% and 41% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Shijiazhuang Y. J. in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dalian Aerbin home games / Shijiazhuang Y. J. away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Dalian Aerbin vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Dalian Aerbin and Shijiazhuang Y. J. matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Dalian Aerbin's games and 67% of Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Dalian Aerbin and Shijiazhuang Y. J. matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 48% of Dalian Aerbin's matches and 70% of Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s.
Do Dalian Aerbin and Shijiazhuang Y. J. matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 74% of Dalian Aerbin's recent matches and 89% of Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dalian Aerbin and Shijiazhuang Y. J. share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dalian Aerbin and Shijiazhuang Y. J. finished level at 1-1 at Dalian Sports Center, Regular Season - 6, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dalian Aerbin 1.17 xG and Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1.15 xG, a combined 2.32. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dalian Aerbin attack 1.00 / defence 0.89 against Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 1.10 / defence 0.98, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dalian Aerbin 33% | Draw 35% | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 32%, with the draw its most likely call at 35%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dalian Aerbin 55%, Shijiazhuang Y. J. 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dalian Aerbin's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Dalian Aerbin 1.21 PPG, Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Shijiazhuang Y. J. (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.89 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.