SHANGHAI SIPG 2-1 Qingdao Jonoon – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates SHANGHAI SIPG at 56%, yet other data sources diverge — this SHANGHAI SIPG vs Qingdao Jonoon fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League clash, Regular Season - 6 as SHANGHAI SIPG welcome Qingdao Jonoon to SAIC Motor Pudong Arena. Kick-off is set for Wednesday 10 May 2023 at 12:35 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, SHANGHAI SIPG stand at 6W 1D 3L from 10 Super League matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: D W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
SHANGHAI SIPG at SAIC Motor Pudong Arena this season: 8W 0D 2L from 10 home games — 2.40 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at SAIC Motor Pudong Arena. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.90 — SHANGHAI SIPG are significantly better at SAIC Motor Pudong Arena than their overall form suggests.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SHANGHAI SIPG 1.92 xG and Qingdao Jonoon 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.276 / defence 0.963 | Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.859 / defence 1.254. League average goals — home 1.201 / away 1.186. SHANGHAI SIPG carry an above-average attack strength of 1.276 — their λ of 1.92 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Qingdao Jonoon bring a strong defensive rating of 1.254 — this is suppressing SHANGHAI SIPG's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 39 SHANGHAI SIPG games / 5 Qingdao Jonoon games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SHANGHAI SIPG 56% | Draw 28% | Qingdao Jonoon 16%. Fair-value odds: SHANGHAI SIPG 1.79 | Draw 3.57 | Qingdao Jonoon 6.25. The model has a clear lean to SHANGHAI SIPG (56%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.90. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.90 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, SHANGHAI SIPG are the pick at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 28% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.90 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SHANGHAI SIPG vs Qingdao Jonoon | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: SAIC Motor Pudong Arena • Kick-off: Wednesday 10 May 2023, 12:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SHANGHAI SIPG 56% | Draw 28% | Qingdao Jonoon 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 56% | xG SHANGHAI SIPG 1.92 / Qingdao Jonoon 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.276 / def 0.963 | Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.859 / def 1.254 | league avg home 1.201 / away 1.186 • Poisson stance: SHANGHAI SIPG (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.92
SHANGHAI SIPG xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Qingdao Jonoon xG
56%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SHANGHAI SIPG vs Qingdao Jonoon kick off?
SHANGHAI SIPG vs Qingdao Jonoon kicked off at 12:35 on Wednesday 10 May 2023 at SAIC Motor Pudong Arena.
What was the final score in SHANGHAI SIPG vs Qingdao Jonoon?
SHANGHAI SIPG 2 - 1 Qingdao Jonoon.
Where is SHANGHAI SIPG vs Qingdao Jonoon being played?
The match is being played at SAIC Motor Pudong Arena.
What competition is SHANGHAI SIPG vs Qingdao Jonoon part of?
SHANGHAI SIPG vs Qingdao Jonoon is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win SHANGHAI SIPG vs Qingdao Jonoon?
Our statistical model gives SHANGHAI SIPG a 56% chance of winning, Qingdao Jonoon a 16% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making SHANGHAI SIPG the favourite.
Will both teams score in SHANGHAI SIPG vs Qingdao Jonoon?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both SHANGHAI SIPG and Qingdao Jonoon will score (BTTS).
Will SHANGHAI SIPG vs Qingdao Jonoon have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between SHANGHAI SIPG and Qingdao Jonoon?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are SHANGHAI SIPG and Qingdao Jonoon in?
SHANGHAI SIPG (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-W-W-W-W. SHANGHAI SIPG home split: 2.40 PPG from 10 | GF 2.40 / GA 0.50 | CS 7.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates SHANGHAI SIPG's attack at 1.28x the league average against Qingdao Jonoon's defence at 1.25x — combine the two and it projects 1.92 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Qingdao Jonoon's attack versus SHANGHAI SIPG's defence, projects 0.98 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 39/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (10.1%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SHANGHAI SIPG Win
56%
1.78
28%
3.56
16%
6.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
2 – 0
10.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.92
SHANGHAI SIPG xG
Total xG
2.90
0.98
Qingdao Jonoon xG
1.78
56%
Home win
3.56
28%
Draw
6.37
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.77
44%
BTTS No
2.30
Clean Sheet
37%
2.67
15%
6.83
Win to Nil
21%
4.74
2%
43.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 5.4 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 10.5 | 10.3 | 5.1 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.1 | 9.9 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.5 | 6.4 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | – |
| 4 | 3.1 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SHANGHAI SIPG vs Qingdao Jonoon?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are SHANGHAI SIPG and Qingdao Jonoon expected to score?
The model projects 1.92 expected goals for SHANGHAI SIPG and 0.98 for Qingdao Jonoon, a combined total of 2.90.
How confident is the prediction model for SHANGHAI SIPG vs Qingdao Jonoon?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
Last 0 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SHANGHAI SIPG
Pre-Season
Qingdao Jonoon
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
7 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 8 Aug 2023, when SHANGHAI SIPG won 0-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
SHANGHAI SIPG's record when hosting Qingdao Jonoon specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
6
SHANGHAI SIPG
0
Draws
1
Qingdao Jonoon
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SHANGHAI SIPG and Qingdao Jonoon?
From 7 meetings on record, SHANGHAI SIPG have won 6, Qingdao Jonoon have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did SHANGHAI SIPG and Qingdao Jonoon last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when Qingdao Jonoon 3-1 SHANGHAI SIPG.
Who has won more matches between SHANGHAI SIPG and Qingdao Jonoon?
SHANGHAI SIPG have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 7 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SHANGHAI SIPG home games / Qingdao Jonoon away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as SHANGHAI SIPG edge out Qingdao Jonoon 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SHANGHAI SIPG beat Qingdao Jonoon 2-1 at SAIC Motor Pudong Arena, Regular Season - 6, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SHANGHAI SIPG 1.92 xG and Qingdao Jonoon 0.98 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.28 / defence 0.96 against Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.86 / defence 1.25, drawn from 39/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SHANGHAI SIPG 56% | Draw 28% | Qingdao Jonoon 16%, with SHANGHAI SIPG to win its most likely call at 56%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.