Chongqing Lifan 2-2 Shijiazhuang Y. J. – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Shijiazhuang Y. J. at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Chongqing Lifan vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Guangzhou Higher Education Mega Center Central Stadium plays host to Chongqing Lifan versus Shijiazhuang Y. J. in Super League, Regular Season - 3. Kick-off: Monday 3 May 2021 at 13:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chongqing Lifan 0.87 xG and Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chongqing Lifan attack 0.828 / defence 1.251 | Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 0.824 / defence 1.325. League average goals — home 0.790 / away 1.302. Shijiazhuang Y. J. bring a strong defensive rating of 1.325 — this is suppressing Chongqing Lifan's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 2 Chongqing Lifan games / 2 Shijiazhuang Y. J. games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Chongqing Lifan 21% | Draw 34% | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 45%. Fair-value odds: Chongqing Lifan 4.76 | Draw 2.94 | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 2.22. Shijiazhuang Y. J. hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (34%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.21. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.21 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Shijiazhuang Y. J. are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Shijiazhuang Y. J. if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.21 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 38% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chongqing Lifan vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Guangzhou Higher Education Mega Center Central Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 3 May 2021, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chongqing Lifan 21% | Draw 34% | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 46% | xG Chongqing Lifan 0.87 / Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Chongqing Lifan attack 0.828 / def 1.251 | Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 0.824 / def 1.325 | league avg home 0.790 / away 1.302 • Poisson stance: Shijiazhuang Y. J. (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.87
Chongqing Lifan xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Shijiazhuang Y. J. xG
46%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chongqing Lifan vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. kick off?
Chongqing Lifan vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. kicked off at 13:00 on Monday 3 May 2021 at Guangzhou Higher Education Mega Center Central Stadium.
What was the final score in Chongqing Lifan vs Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Chongqing Lifan 2 - 2 Shijiazhuang Y. J..
Where is Chongqing Lifan vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. being played?
The match is being played at Guangzhou Higher Education Mega Center Central Stadium.
What competition is Chongqing Lifan vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. part of?
Chongqing Lifan vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Chongqing Lifan vs Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Our statistical model gives Chongqing Lifan a 21% chance of winning, Shijiazhuang Y. J. a 45% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Shijiazhuang Y. J. the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chongqing Lifan vs Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Chongqing Lifan and Shijiazhuang Y. J. will score (BTTS).
Will Chongqing Lifan vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chongqing Lifan and Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Chongqing Lifan and Shijiazhuang Y. J. in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Chongqing Lifan's attacking strength (0.83x league average) is weighed against Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s defensive record (1.32x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.87. Flip it around — Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s attack (0.82x) against Chongqing Lifan's defence (1.25x) — and the away total comes out at 1.34.
The sample (2/2 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-1 (13.1%), 0-0 (12.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shijiazhuang Y. J. Win
21%
4.77
34%
2.91
45%
2.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
11.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.87
Chongqing Lifan xG
Total xG
2.21
1.34
Shijiazhuang Y. J. xG
4.77
21%
Home win
2.91
34%
Draw
2.24
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.17
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
26%
3.83
42%
2.38
Win to Nil
5%
18.24
19%
5.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.0 | 14.8 | 9.9 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 12.8 | 8.6 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 5.5 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Chongqing Lifan vs Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Chongqing Lifan and Shijiazhuang Y. J. expected to score?
The model projects 0.87 expected goals for Chongqing Lifan and 1.34 for Shijiazhuang Y. J., a combined total of 2.21.
How confident is the prediction model for Chongqing Lifan vs Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chongqing Lifan
Pre-Season
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since May 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 30 July 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Chongqing Lifan
2
Draws
0
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Chongqing Lifan and Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
From 2 meetings on record, Chongqing Lifan have won 0, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Chongqing Lifan and Shijiazhuang Y. J. last play each other?
They last met on 30 July 2021, when Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1-1 Chongqing Lifan.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chongqing Lifan home games / Shijiazhuang Y. J. away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Chongqing Lifan and Shijiazhuang Y. J. share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Chongqing Lifan and Shijiazhuang Y. J. finished level at 2-2 at Guangzhou Higher Education Mega Center Central Stadium, Regular Season - 3, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chongqing Lifan 0.87 xG and Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1.34 xG, a combined 2.21. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Chongqing Lifan beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chongqing Lifan attack 0.83 / defence 1.25 against Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 0.82 / defence 1.32, drawn from 2/2 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Chongqing Lifan 21% | Draw 34% | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 45%, with Shijiazhuang Y. J. to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.