Cavalry FC 2-1 Vancouver FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Cavalry FC at 69% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Cavalry FC vs Vancouver FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
ATCO Field plays host to Cavalry FC versus Vancouver FC in Canadian Premier League (matchday 11). Kick-off: Saturday 16 September 2023 at 23:00 UK time.
Current Form
Cavalry FC's record over their last 10 games: 7W 1D 2L (2.20 PPG). Last five: W W W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
At home, Cavalry FC have gone 7W 2D 1L in their last 10 home games (2.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Vancouver FC have collected 1.00 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: L W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Vancouver FC have gone 1W 2D 7L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Form favours the hosts. Cavalry FC's 2.20 PPG return is 1.20 points per game ahead of Vancouver FC's 1.00 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Trading Data
Cavalry FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 23 games, 11 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 54% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; they lead at the break 48% of the time; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Vancouver FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 23 games, 11 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; of the 4 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cavalry FC 61% versus Vancouver FC 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cavalry FC 48% | Vancouver FC 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cavalry FC 1.97 xG and Vancouver FC 0.56 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cavalry FC attack 1.155 / defence 0.723 | Vancouver FC attack 0.589 / defence 1.334. League average goals — home 1.276 / away 1.304. Vancouver FC's defence rating of 1.334 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Cavalry FC's projected output up. Vancouver FC's attack rating of 0.589 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.56. Cavalry FC have a tight defence (rating 0.723), which is pulling Vancouver FC's projected output down. Data: built from Cavalry FC's last 52 games and Vancouver FC's last 23.
Result probabilities: Cavalry FC 69% | Draw 23% | Vancouver FC 8%. Fair-value odds: Cavalry FC 1.44 | Draw 4.43 | Vancouver FC 12.56. The model has a clear lean to Cavalry FC (69%) — a 46pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS Yes probability 38% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No at 62% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Cavalry FC at 69% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.52 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 54% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on No. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Cavalry FC 50% (last 10 home games) | Vancouver FC 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cavalry FC vs Vancouver FC | Competition: Canadian Premier League, matchday 11 | Venue: ATCO Field • Kick-off: Saturday 16 September 2023 at 23:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cavalry FC 69% | Draw 23% | Vancouver FC 8% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% (Under 54%) | BTTS Yes 38% (No 62%) | xG Cavalry FC 1.97 / Vancouver FC 0.56 • Poisson strength factors: Cavalry FC attack 1.155 / def 0.723 | Vancouver FC attack 0.589 / def 1.334 | league avg home 1.276 / away 1.304 • Poisson stance: Cavalry FC (69%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.97
Cavalry FC xG
Expected Goals
0.56
Vancouver FC xG
38%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Cavalry FC vs Vancouver FC FAQs
What time does Cavalry FC vs Vancouver FC kick off?
Cavalry FC vs Vancouver FC kicked off at 23:00 UK time on Saturday 16 September 2023 at ATCO Field.
What was the final score in Cavalry FC vs Vancouver FC?
Cavalry FC 2 - 1 Vancouver FC.
Where is Cavalry FC vs Vancouver FC being played?
The match is being played at ATCO Field.
What competition is Cavalry FC vs Vancouver FC part of?
Cavalry FC vs Vancouver FC is a Canadian Premier League fixture (matchday 11) (Canada).
Who is favourite to win Cavalry FC vs Vancouver FC?
Our statistical model gives Cavalry FC a 69% chance of winning, Vancouver FC a 8% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Cavalry FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cavalry FC vs Vancouver FC?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Cavalry FC and Vancouver FC will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (62%).
Will Cavalry FC vs Vancouver FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (54%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Cavalry FC's attacking strength (1.16x league average) is weighed against Vancouver FC's defensive record (1.33x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.97. Flip it around — Vancouver FC's attack (0.59x) against Cavalry FC's defence (0.72x) — and the away total comes out at 0.56.
These ratings are built from Cavalry FC's last 52 games and Vancouver FC's last 23 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 15.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (14.6%), 3-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cavalry FC Win
69%
1.44
23%
4.43
8%
12.56
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.8%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
15.5%
Home win
3 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.97
Cavalry FC xG
Total xG
2.52
0.56
Vancouver FC xG
1.44
69%
Home win
4.43
23%
Draw
12.56
8%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.62
62%
BTTS No
1.62
Clean Sheet
57%
1.74
14%
7.14
Win to Nil
40%
2.51
1%
89.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 4.5 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 1 | 15.8 | 8.8 | 2.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 15.5 | 8.6 | 2.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 10.2 | 5.7 | 1.6 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 4 | 5.0 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Cavalry FC vs Vancouver FC Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Cavalry FC vs Vancouver FC?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.5%.
How many goals are Cavalry FC and Vancouver FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.97 expected goals for Cavalry FC and 0.56 for Vancouver FC, a combined total of 2.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Cavalry FC vs Vancouver FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 69%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 23 outings, Cavalry FC have picked up 1.83 PPG on a 12W 6D 5L record — W-W-W-D-W across the most recent five.
Vancouver FC's form line: 5W 5D 13L from 23 games, 0.87 PPG, last five L-W-L-L-W.
Put side by side, Cavalry FC are the form team by 0.96 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Vancouver FC.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Cavalry FC have posted 2.18 PPG from their last 11 home games (7W 3D 1L).
On the road, Vancouver FC have gone 1W 2D 8L from their last 11 away games — 0.45 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 0.87 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Vancouver FC's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cavalry FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Cavalry FC are averaging 1.57 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Vancouver FC are on 0.91 scored and 1.91 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Cavalry FC have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 23 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cavalry FC
Blended
Vancouver FC
Blended
Cavalry FC (Home) vs Vancouver FC (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Cavalry FC
Blended
Vancouver FC
Blended
❓ Cavalry FC vs Vancouver FC Form FAQs
What form are Cavalry FC and Vancouver FC in coming into this match?
Cavalry FC have gone 12W 6D 5L in their last 23 games (1.83 PPG), while Vancouver FC have gone 5W 5D 13L in their last 23 (0.87 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cavalry FC at home or Vancouver FC away?
Cavalry FC's home record (2.18 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cavalry FC at home: 2.18 PPG; Vancouver FC away: 0.45 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Cavalry FC and Vancouver FC, the earliest from July 2024. All of them came in Canadian Premier League. The most recent was as recently as 25 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
Cavalry FC have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cavalry FC have gone 3W 2D 0L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Vancouver FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Cavalry FC
4
Draws
1
Vancouver FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Cavalry FC vs Vancouver FC H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Cavalry FC and Vancouver FC?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Cavalry FC have won 5, Vancouver FC have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Cavalry FC and Vancouver FC last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 25 October 2026: Cavalry FC 1-0 Vancouver FC.
Who has won more matches between Cavalry FC and Vancouver FC?
Cavalry FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Cavalry FC see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 40% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 100% of those situations.
Vancouver FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cavalry FC 54%, Vancouver FC 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Cavalry FC) and 46% (Vancouver FC).
On the defensive side: Cavalry FC keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Vancouver FC in 54%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cavalry FC home games / Vancouver FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Cavalry FC vs Vancouver FC Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Cavalry FC and Vancouver FC matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Cavalry FC's recent matches and 46% of Vancouver FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Cavalry FC and Vancouver FC matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Cavalry FC's recent games and 46% of Vancouver FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cavalry FC and Vancouver FC matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 54% of Cavalry FC's recent matches and 64% of Vancouver FC's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Cavalry FC edge out Vancouver FC 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cavalry FC beat Vancouver FC 2-1 at ATCO Field, Regular Season - 11, in the Canadian Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cavalry FC 1.97 xG and Vancouver FC 0.56 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cavalry FC attack 1.16 / defence 0.72 against Vancouver FC attack 0.59 / defence 1.33, drawn from 52/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cavalry FC 69% | Draw 23% | Vancouver FC 8%, with Cavalry FC to win its most likely call at 69%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cavalry FC 48%, Vancouver FC 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cavalry FC's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Vancouver FC's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Cavalry FC arrived the stronger side — 1.83 PPG against 0.87. The form guide was vindicated by the result.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.