Atlético Ottawa 1-1 Pacific FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Pacific FC at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Atlético Ottawa vs Pacific FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Canadian Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 11 sees Pacific FC travel to TD Place Stadium to take on Atlético Ottawa. The game is scheduled for Wednesday 13 September 2023, 22:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Atlético Ottawa stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Canadian Premier League matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W D L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Atlético Ottawa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Atlético Ottawa at TD Place Stadium this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at TD Place Stadium.
Pacific FC — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Canadian Premier League fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Pacific FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Pacific FC have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.70 exceeds their overall 1.10 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Atlético Ottawa are in the better shape of the two on current Canadian Premier League data — 0.60 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 1.10). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
In-Play Data
Atlético Ottawa trading profile (53 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games).
Pacific FC trading profile (53 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Atlético Ottawa 49% versus Pacific FC 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Atlético Ottawa 42% | Pacific FC 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Atlético Ottawa 1.24 xG and Pacific FC 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Atlético Ottawa attack 1.009 / defence 0.895 | Pacific FC attack 1.153 / defence 0.960. League average goals — home 1.280 / away 1.311. Data: 51 Atlético Ottawa games / 51 Pacific FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Atlético Ottawa 32% | Draw 30% | Pacific FC 38%. Fair-value odds: Atlético Ottawa 3.12 | Draw 3.33 | Pacific FC 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.59. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.59 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Pacific FC as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Atlético Ottawa (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Pacific FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.59 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Atlético Ottawa 40% | Pacific FC 60%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Atlético Ottawa vs Pacific FC | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: TD Place Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 13 Sep 2023, 22:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Atlético Ottawa 32% | Draw 30% | Pacific FC 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 54% | xG Atlético Ottawa 1.24 / Pacific FC 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: Atlético Ottawa attack 1.009 / def 0.895 | Pacific FC attack 1.153 / def 0.960 | league avg home 1.280 / away 1.311 • Poisson stance: Pacific FC (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
Atlético Ottawa xG
Expected Goals
1.35
Pacific FC xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Atlético Ottawa vs Pacific FC kick off?
Atlético Ottawa vs Pacific FC kicked off at 22:30 on Wednesday 13 September 2023 at TD Place Stadium.
What was the final score in Atlético Ottawa vs Pacific FC?
Atlético Ottawa 1 - 1 Pacific FC.
Where is Atlético Ottawa vs Pacific FC being played?
The match is being played at TD Place Stadium.
What competition is Atlético Ottawa vs Pacific FC part of?
Atlético Ottawa vs Pacific FC is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win Atlético Ottawa vs Pacific FC?
Our statistical model gives Atlético Ottawa a 32% chance of winning, Pacific FC a 38% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Pacific FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Atlético Ottawa vs Pacific FC?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Atlético Ottawa and Pacific FC will score (BTTS).
Will Atlético Ottawa vs Pacific FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Atlético Ottawa and Pacific FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Atlético Ottawa and Pacific FC in?
Atlético Ottawa (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-D-L-L. Pacific FC (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Atlético Ottawa's attack rating (1.01) and Pacific FC's defence rating (0.96), the model arrives at 1.24 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Pacific FC's attack versus Atlético Ottawa's defence, projects 1.35 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.1%), 0-1 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pacific FC Win
32%
3.09
30%
3.34
38%
2.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.1%
Away win
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
Atlético Ottawa xG
Total xG
2.59
1.35
Pacific FC xG
3.09
32%
Home win
3.34
30%
Draw
2.65
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
26%
3.87
29%
3.45
Win to Nil
8%
11.93
11%
9.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 10.1 | 6.8 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 12.6 | 8.5 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 7.8 | 5.3 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.2 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Atlético Ottawa vs Pacific FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Atlético Ottawa and Pacific FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Atlético Ottawa and 1.35 for Pacific FC, a combined total of 2.59.
How confident is the prediction model for Atlético Ottawa vs Pacific FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 53 outings, Atlético Ottawa have picked up 1.55 PPG on a 22W 16D 15L record — W-W-D-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Atlético Ottawa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Pacific FC's form line: 23W 14D 16L from 53 games, 1.57 PPG, last five L-L-L-W-D. The sample for Pacific FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Atlético Ottawa on 1.55 PPG, Pacific FC on 1.57. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Atlético Ottawa have posted 1.36 PPG from 25 outings (8W 10D 7L).
On the road, Pacific FC have gone 11W 5D 9L from 25 away games — 1.52 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Atlético Ottawa are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 1.13 conceded per game recently; Pacific FC are on 1.36 scored and 1.15 conceded.
Last 53 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Atlético Ottawa
Blended
Pacific FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Atlético Ottawa and Pacific FC in coming into this match?
Atlético Ottawa have gone 22W 16D 15L in their last 53 games (1.55 PPG), while Pacific FC have gone 23W 14D 16L in their last 53 (1.57 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Atlético Ottawa at home or Pacific FC away?
Pacific FC's away record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Atlético Ottawa at home: 1.36 PPG; Pacific FC away: 1.52 PPG.
Have Atlético Ottawa or Pacific FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Atlético Ottawa have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Pacific FC in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Atlético Ottawa and Pacific FC runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 26 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 Aug 2024, when Atlético Ottawa won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Atlético Ottawa's record when hosting Pacific FC specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Atlético Ottawa
2
Draws
1
Pacific FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Atlético Ottawa and Pacific FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Atlético Ottawa have won 7, Pacific FC have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Atlético Ottawa and Pacific FC last play each other?
They last met on 26 July 2026, when Atlético Ottawa 3-2 Pacific FC.
Who has won more matches between Atlético Ottawa and Pacific FC?
Atlético Ottawa have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Atlético Ottawa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Pacific FC see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Atlético Ottawa 48%, Pacific FC 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Atlético Ottawa) and 44% (Pacific FC).
On the defensive side: Atlético Ottawa keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Pacific FC in 32%; Atlético Ottawa have failed to score in 36% of games; Pacific FC in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Atlético Ottawa home games / Pacific FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Atlético Ottawa play Pacific FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Atlético Ottawa's recent matches and 44% of Pacific FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Atlético Ottawa vs Pacific FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Atlético Ottawa's recent games and 44% of Pacific FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Atlético Ottawa and Pacific FC tend to score early?
Atlético Ottawa have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Pacific FC in 52% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Atlético Ottawa and Pacific FC share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at TD Place Stadium, Regular Season - 11, as Atlético Ottawa and Pacific FC drew 1-1 in the Canadian Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Atlético Ottawa 1.24 xG and Pacific FC 1.35 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Atlético Ottawa attack 1.01 / defence 0.90 against Pacific FC attack 1.15 / defence 0.96, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Atlético Ottawa 32% | Draw 30% | Pacific FC 38%, with Pacific FC to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Atlético Ottawa 42%, Pacific FC 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Atlético Ottawa's trading profile (53 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Pacific FC's trading profile (53 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Atlético Ottawa 1.55 PPG, Pacific FC 1.57 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.