Cavalry FC 1-0 Vancouver FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Cavalry FC (49%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Cavalry FC face Vancouver FC.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
ATCO Field plays host to Cavalry FC versus Vancouver FC in Canadian Premier League, Group Stage. Kick-off: Sunday 25 October 2026 at 20:00 UTC.
Current Form
Cavalry FC's overall Canadian Premier League record this term: 6W 2D 2L from 10 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: W L L D W. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Cavalry FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at ATCO Field, Cavalry FC have gone 8W 2D 0L this season (10 games, 2.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.70 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.00 — Cavalry FC are significantly better at ATCO Field than their overall form suggests.
Vancouver FC have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Canadian Premier League outings this season: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: D D D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Vancouver FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Vancouver FC have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. Cavalry FC's 2.00 PPG return is 1.00 points per game ahead of Vancouver FC's 1.00 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H Analysis
Historically, Cavalry FC have had the better of this match-up — 4 wins from 9 meetings, with Vancouver FC managing just 1 victories and 4 draws shared.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Aug 2026, ended 1–0 with Cavalry FC winning.
The historical record gives Cavalry FC a meaningful edge here — 4 wins from 9 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading Data
Cavalry FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (55 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Vancouver FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (55 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Cavalry FC 56% and Vancouver FC 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cavalry FC 60% | Vancouver FC 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cavalry FC 1.82 xG and Vancouver FC 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cavalry FC attack 1.006 / defence 0.996 | Vancouver FC attack 1.000 / defence 1.001. League average goals — home 1.811 / away 1.267. Data: 28 Cavalry FC games / 28 Vancouver FC games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Cavalry FC 49% | Draw 26% | Vancouver FC 25%. Fair-value odds: Cavalry FC 2.04 | Draw 3.85 | Vancouver FC 4.00. Cavalry FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.09. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.09 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.82 / 1.26) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Cavalry FC at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cavalry FC if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 3.09 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Cavalry FC 60% | Vancouver FC 50% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (28 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cavalry FC vs Vancouver FC | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Group Stage | Venue: ATCO Field • Kick-off: Sunday 25 Oct 2026, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cavalry FC 49% | Draw 26% | Vancouver FC 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 62% | xG Cavalry FC 1.82 / Vancouver FC 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Cavalry FC attack 1.006 / def 0.996 | Vancouver FC attack 1.000 / def 1.001 | league avg home 1.811 / away 1.267 • Poisson stance: Cavalry FC (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.82
Cavalry FC xG
Expected Goals
1.26
Vancouver FC xG
62%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cavalry FC vs Vancouver FC kick off?
Cavalry FC vs Vancouver FC kicked off at 20:00 on Sunday 25 October 2026 at ATCO Field.
What was the final score in Cavalry FC vs Vancouver FC?
Cavalry FC 1 - 0 Vancouver FC.
Where is Cavalry FC vs Vancouver FC being played?
The match is being played at ATCO Field.
What competition is Cavalry FC vs Vancouver FC part of?
Cavalry FC vs Vancouver FC is a Group Stage fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win Cavalry FC vs Vancouver FC?
Our statistical model gives Cavalry FC a 49% chance of winning, Vancouver FC a 25% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Cavalry FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cavalry FC vs Vancouver FC?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Cavalry FC and Vancouver FC will score (BTTS).
Will Cavalry FC vs Vancouver FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cavalry FC and Vancouver FC?
Record (9 meetings): Cavalry FC 4W | Draws 4 | Vancouver FC 1W.
What form are Cavalry FC and Vancouver FC in?
Cavalry FC (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-L-D-W. Vancouver FC (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-D-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Cavalry FC's attacking strength (1.01x league average) is weighed against Vancouver FC's defensive record (1.00x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.82. Flip it around — Vancouver FC's attack (1.00x) against Cavalry FC's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 1.26.
These ratings are built from 28/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Cavalry FC Win
49%
2.04
26%
3.82
25%
4.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.82
Cavalry FC xG
Total xG
3.09
1.26
Vancouver FC xG
2.04
49%
Home win
3.82
26%
Draw
4.03
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.61
Clean Sheet
28%
3.53
16%
6.20
Win to Nil
14%
7.21
4%
24.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 5.8 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 10.5 | 6.6 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 9.6 | 6.1 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 5.8 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.7 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cavalry FC vs Vancouver FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Cavalry FC and Vancouver FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.82 expected goals for Cavalry FC and 1.26 for Vancouver FC, a combined total of 3.09.
How confident is the prediction model for Cavalry FC vs Vancouver FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 55 outings, Cavalry FC have picked up 1.89 PPG on a 30W 14D 11L record — W-L-L-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Cavalry FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Vancouver FC's form line: 14W 16D 25L from 55 games, 1.05 PPG, last five D-D-D-D-W. The sample for Vancouver FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Cavalry FC are the form team by 0.84 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Vancouver FC.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Cavalry FC have posted 2.38 PPG from 26 outings (19W 5D 2L). That's noticeably better than their 1.89 PPG overall — Cavalry FC are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Vancouver FC have gone 5W 7D 14L from 26 away games — 0.85 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cavalry FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Cavalry FC are averaging 1.96 goals scored and 1.04 conceded per game recently; Vancouver FC are on 1.35 scored and 1.69 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Vancouver FC in 64%.
Last 55 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cavalry FC
Blended
Vancouver FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cavalry FC and Vancouver FC in coming into this match?
Cavalry FC have gone 30W 14D 11L in their last 55 games (1.89 PPG), while Vancouver FC have gone 14W 16D 25L in their last 55 (1.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cavalry FC at home or Vancouver FC away?
Cavalry FC's home record (2.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cavalry FC at home: 2.38 PPG; Vancouver FC away: 0.85 PPG.
Have Cavalry FC or Vancouver FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cavalry FC have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Vancouver FC in 9%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 25 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Cavalry FC go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cavalry FC have gone 3W 2D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Vancouver FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Cavalry FC
4
Draws
1
Vancouver FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cavalry FC and Vancouver FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Cavalry FC have won 5, Vancouver FC have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Cavalry FC and Vancouver FC last play each other?
They last met on 25 October 2026, when Cavalry FC 1-0 Vancouver FC.
Who has won more matches between Cavalry FC and Vancouver FC?
Cavalry FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Cavalry FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 58% of the time.
Vancouver FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cavalry FC 54%, Vancouver FC 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Cavalry FC) and 54% (Vancouver FC). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 46% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Cavalry FC keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Vancouver FC in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cavalry FC home games / Vancouver FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cavalry FC play Vancouver FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Cavalry FC's games and 62% of Vancouver FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cavalry FC vs Vancouver FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Cavalry FC's matches and 54% of Vancouver FC's.
Do Cavalry FC and Vancouver FC tend to score early?
Cavalry FC have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Vancouver FC in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Cavalry FC edge out Vancouver FC 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cavalry FC beat Vancouver FC 1-0 at ATCO Field, Group Stage, in the Canadian Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cavalry FC 1.82 xG and Vancouver FC 1.26 xG, a combined 3.09. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Cavalry FC fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Vancouver FC landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cavalry FC attack 1.01 / defence 1.00 against Vancouver FC attack 1.00 / defence 1.00, drawn from 28/28 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cavalry FC 49% | Draw 26% | Vancouver FC 25%, with Cavalry FC to win its most likely call at 49%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cavalry FC 60%, Vancouver FC 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cavalry FC's trading profile (55 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Vancouver FC's trading profile (55 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Cavalry FC arrived the stronger side — 1.89 PPG against 1.05. Form held, and they took the win. Cavalry FC (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.50 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.81 average — tighter than their form line. Vancouver FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.31 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.81 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.