Vasco DA Gama 1-0 Cuiaba – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Vasco DA Gama at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Vasco DA Gama vs Cuiaba fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Cuiaba make the trip to Estádio São Januário to face Vasco DA Gama in Serie A, Regular Season - 19. The match kicks off on Friday 25 October 2024 at 23:00 UTC.
Form
Vasco DA Gama (all games): 3W 5D 2L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D L D D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Vasco DA Gama's form when playing at home: 5W 4D 1L across 10 games at Estádio São Januário this term (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Vasco DA Gama are significantly better at Estádio São Januário than their overall form suggests.
Cuiaba have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: L D L W D. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Cuiaba away from home this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.40 for Vasco DA Gama, 1.00 for Cuiaba — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Vasco DA Gama lead 2W to 0W over the last 2 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 2 previous contests averaged 1.5 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 2 Nov 2023, ended 2–0 with Vasco DA Gama winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Vasco DA Gama half-time and goal-timing data (67 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Cuiaba half-time and goal-timing data (67 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they fail to score in 45% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Vasco DA Gama 51% versus Cuiaba 36%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Vasco DA Gama 40% | Cuiaba 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vasco DA Gama 1.48 xG and Cuiaba 0.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vasco DA Gama attack 1.022 / defence 1.097 | Cuiaba attack 0.796 / defence 1.070. League average goals — home 1.356 / away 0.990. Data: 67 Vasco DA Gama games / 67 Cuiaba games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Vasco DA Gama 51% | Draw 27% | Cuiaba 21%. Fair-value odds: Vasco DA Gama 1.96 | Draw 3.70 | Cuiaba 4.76. Vasco DA Gama hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.35. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.35 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Vasco DA Gama at 51% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Vasco DA Gama if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.35 combined xG gives a 42% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. Form rates corroborate: Vasco DA Gama 50% | Cuiaba 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vasco DA Gama vs Cuiaba | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Estádio São Januário • Kick-off: Friday 25 Oct 2024, 23:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vasco DA Gama 51% | Draw 27% | Cuiaba 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 45% | xG Vasco DA Gama 1.48 / Cuiaba 0.87 • Poisson strength factors: Vasco DA Gama attack 1.022 / def 1.097 | Cuiaba attack 0.796 / def 1.070 | league avg home 1.356 / away 0.990 • Poisson stance: Vasco DA Gama (51%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.48
Vasco DA Gama xG
Expected Goals
0.87
Cuiaba xG
45%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vasco DA Gama vs Cuiaba kick off?
Vasco DA Gama vs Cuiaba kicked off at 23:00 on Friday 25 October 2024 at Estádio São Januário.
What was the final score in Vasco DA Gama vs Cuiaba?
Vasco DA Gama 1 - 0 Cuiaba.
Where is Vasco DA Gama vs Cuiaba being played?
The match is being played at Estádio São Januário.
What competition is Vasco DA Gama vs Cuiaba part of?
Vasco DA Gama vs Cuiaba is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Vasco DA Gama vs Cuiaba?
Our statistical model gives Vasco DA Gama a 51% chance of winning, Cuiaba a 21% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Vasco DA Gama the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vasco DA Gama vs Cuiaba?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Vasco DA Gama and Cuiaba will score (BTTS).
Will Vasco DA Gama vs Cuiaba have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vasco DA Gama and Cuiaba?
Record (2 meetings): Vasco DA Gama 2W | Draws 0 | Cuiaba 0W.
What form are Vasco DA Gama and Cuiaba in?
Vasco DA Gama (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-D-D-L. Cuiaba (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-L-W-D.
What do the betting odds say about Vasco DA Gama vs Cuiaba?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Vasco DA Gama's attack rating (1.02) and Cuiaba's defence rating (1.07), the model arrives at 1.48 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Cuiaba's attack (0.80x) against Vasco DA Gama's defence (1.10x) — and the away total comes out at 0.87.
These ratings are built from 67/67 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.6%), 0-0 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Vasco DA Gama Win
51%
1.95
27%
3.66
21%
4.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
2 – 0
10.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.48
Vasco DA Gama xG
Total xG
2.35
0.87
Cuiaba xG
1.95
51%
Home win
3.66
27%
Draw
4.65
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.21
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
42%
2.38
23%
4.40
Win to Nil
22%
4.65
5%
20.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.6 | 8.3 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.2 | 12.3 | 5.3 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.5 | 9.1 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.2 | 4.5 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vasco DA Gama vs Cuiaba?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Vasco DA Gama and Cuiaba expected to score?
The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Vasco DA Gama and 0.87 for Cuiaba, a combined total of 2.35.
How confident is the prediction model for Vasco DA Gama vs Cuiaba?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 67 outings, Vasco DA Gama have picked up 1.22 PPG on a 22W 16D 29L record — D-L-D-D-L across the most recent five.
Cuiaba's form line: 20W 18D 29L from 67 games, 1.16 PPG, last five L-D-L-W-D.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.22 PPG for Vasco DA Gama against 1.16 for Cuiaba. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Vasco DA Gama have posted 1.64 PPG from 33 outings (16W 6D 11L). That's noticeably better than their 1.22 PPG overall — Vasco DA Gama are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Cuiaba have gone 11W 7D 15L from 33 away games — 1.21 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Vasco DA Gama come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Vasco DA Gama are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; Cuiaba are on 0.97 scored and 1.16 conceded.
Last 67 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vasco DA Gama
Current Season
Cuiaba
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Vasco DA Gama and Cuiaba in coming into this match?
Vasco DA Gama have gone 22W 16D 29L in their last 67 games (1.22 PPG), while Cuiaba have gone 20W 18D 29L in their last 67 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Vasco DA Gama at home or Cuiaba away?
Vasco DA Gama's home record (1.64 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Vasco DA Gama at home: 1.64 PPG; Cuiaba away: 1.21 PPG.
Have Vasco DA Gama or Cuiaba been keeping clean sheets recently?
Vasco DA Gama have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Cuiaba in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since June 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 December 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Vasco DA Gama have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Vasco DA Gama have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Cuiaba — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
4
Vasco DA Gama
0
Draws
0
Cuiaba
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Vasco DA Gama and Cuiaba?
From 4 meetings on record, Vasco DA Gama have won 4, Cuiaba have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Vasco DA Gama and Cuiaba last play each other?
They last met on 8 December 2024, when Cuiaba 1-2 Vasco DA Gama.
Who has won more matches between Vasco DA Gama and Cuiaba?
Vasco DA Gama have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Vasco DA Gama are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Cuiaba are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Vasco DA Gama 48%, Cuiaba 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Vasco DA Gama) and 36% (Cuiaba).
On the defensive side: Vasco DA Gama keep a clean sheet in 30% of their matches; Cuiaba in 30%; Vasco DA Gama have failed to score in 27% of games; Cuiaba in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vasco DA Gama home games / Cuiaba away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Vasco DA Gama play Cuiaba?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Vasco DA Gama's recent matches and 33% of Cuiaba's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Vasco DA Gama vs Cuiaba usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Vasco DA Gama's recent games and 36% of Cuiaba's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Vasco DA Gama and Cuiaba tend to score early?
Vasco DA Gama have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Cuiaba in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Vasco DA Gama edge out Cuiaba 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Vasco DA Gama beat Cuiaba 1-0 at Estádio São Januário, Regular Season - 19, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vasco DA Gama 1.48 xG and Cuiaba 0.87 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Cuiaba landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vasco DA Gama attack 1.02 / defence 1.10 against Cuiaba attack 0.80 / defence 1.07, drawn from 67/67 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Vasco DA Gama 51% | Draw 27% | Cuiaba 21%, with Vasco DA Gama to win its most likely call at 51%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vasco DA Gama 40%, Cuiaba 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Vasco DA Gama's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not.
Cuiaba's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 45% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Vasco DA Gama 1.22 PPG, Cuiaba 1.16 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Vasco DA Gama win broke the near-deadlock. Vasco DA Gama (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.27 average — tighter than their form line. Cuiaba (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.88 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.