Mirassol 3-2 Vasco DA Gama – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Mirassol at 49% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Mirassol vs Vasco DA Gama encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Mirassol host Vasco DA Gama at Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia in Serie A, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 2 August 2025 at 22:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Mirassol stand at 5W 4D 1L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W D W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Mirassol, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Mirassol have posted 4W 3D 0L at Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia — 2.14 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 71% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Vasco DA Gama — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L W L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Vasco DA Gama, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Vasco DA Gama's away record: 2W 1D 7L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On current form, Mirassol have the edge — a 1.10 PPG advantage (1.90 vs 0.80) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
In-Play Data
Mirassol trading profile (15 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).
Vasco DA Gama trading profile (15 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Mirassol 67% and Vasco DA Gama 53% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mirassol 40% | Vasco DA Gama 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mirassol 1.59 xG and Vasco DA Gama 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mirassol attack 1.124 / defence 1.058 | Vasco DA Gama attack 1.084 / defence 1.125. League average goals — home 1.261 / away 0.919. Data: 15 Mirassol games / 53 Vasco DA Gama games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mirassol 49% | Draw 26% | Vasco DA Gama 25%. Fair-value odds: Mirassol 2.04 | Draw 3.85 | Vasco DA Gama 4.00. Mirassol hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Mirassol as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Mirassol offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.65 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate: Mirassol 71% | Vasco DA Gama 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mirassol vs Vasco DA Gama | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Aug 2025, 22:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mirassol 49% | Draw 26% | Vasco DA Gama 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 52% | xG Mirassol 1.59 / Vasco DA Gama 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Mirassol attack 1.124 / def 1.058 | Vasco DA Gama attack 1.084 / def 1.125 | league avg home 1.261 / away 0.919 • Poisson stance: Mirassol (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.59
Mirassol xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Vasco DA Gama xG
52%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mirassol vs Vasco DA Gama kick off?
Mirassol vs Vasco DA Gama kicked off at 22:30 on Saturday 2 August 2025 at Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia.
What was the final score in Mirassol vs Vasco DA Gama?
Mirassol 3 - 2 Vasco DA Gama.
Where is Mirassol vs Vasco DA Gama being played?
The match is being played at Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia.
What competition is Mirassol vs Vasco DA Gama part of?
Mirassol vs Vasco DA Gama is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Mirassol vs Vasco DA Gama?
Our statistical model gives Mirassol a 49% chance of winning, Vasco DA Gama a 25% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Mirassol the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mirassol vs Vasco DA Gama?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Mirassol and Vasco DA Gama will score (BTTS).
Will Mirassol vs Vasco DA Gama have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mirassol and Vasco DA Gama?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Mirassol and Vasco DA Gama in?
Mirassol (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-D-W-W-D. Vasco DA Gama (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Mirassol's attack rating (1.12) and Vasco DA Gama's defence rating (1.12), the model arrives at 1.59 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Vasco DA Gama's attack versus Mirassol's defence, projects 1.05 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 15/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.7%), 2-1 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mirassol Win
49%
2.02
26%
3.87
25%
4.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.59
Mirassol xG
Total xG
2.65
1.05
Vasco DA Gama xG
2.02
49%
Home win
3.87
26%
Draw
4.05
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
35%
2.87
20%
4.93
Win to Nil
17%
5.80
5%
19.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 7.5 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 11.9 | 6.3 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 9.5 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 5.0 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mirassol vs Vasco DA Gama?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Mirassol and Vasco DA Gama expected to score?
The model projects 1.59 expected goals for Mirassol and 1.05 for Vasco DA Gama, a combined total of 2.65.
How confident is the prediction model for Mirassol vs Vasco DA Gama?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Mirassol's recent record stands at 6W 7D 2L from 15 games, a 1.67 PPG return, with W-D-W-W-D in the last five. The sample for Mirassol is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Vasco DA Gama, meanwhile, have gone 4W 3D 8L across 15 games — 1.00 PPG, with L-W-L-D-D in their last five. The sample for Vasco DA Gama is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Mirassol by 0.67 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Vasco DA Gama heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Mirassol have managed 4W 3D 0L from 7 games — 2.14 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.67 PPG overall — Mirassol are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Vasco DA Gama's away record stands at 1W 1D 5L across 7 trips, a 0.57 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.00 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Vasco DA Gama's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Mirassol come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Mirassol are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.93 conceded per game recently; Vasco DA Gama are on 1.07 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Mirassol have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 15 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mirassol
Blended
Vasco DA Gama
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mirassol and Vasco DA Gama in coming into this match?
Mirassol have gone 6W 7D 2L in their last 15 games (1.67 PPG), while Vasco DA Gama have gone 4W 3D 8L in their last 15 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mirassol at home or Vasco DA Gama away?
Mirassol's home record (2.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mirassol at home: 2.14 PPG; Vasco DA Gama away: 0.57 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Mirassol and Vasco DA Gama runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 25 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Mirassol's record when hosting Vasco DA Gama specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Mirassol
1
Draws
0
Vasco DA Gama
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mirassol and Vasco DA Gama?
From 4 meetings on record, Mirassol have won 3, Vasco DA Gama have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Mirassol and Vasco DA Gama last play each other?
They last met on 25 July 2026, when Vasco DA Gama 1-1 Mirassol.
Who has won more matches between Mirassol and Vasco DA Gama?
Mirassol have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Mirassol are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Vasco DA Gama are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Mirassol at 71%, Vasco DA Gama at 71%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 57% for Mirassol and 71% for Vasco DA Gama. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 14% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Vasco DA Gama in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mirassol home games / Vasco DA Gama away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mirassol play Vasco DA Gama?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Mirassol's games and 71% of Vasco DA Gama's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Mirassol vs Vasco DA Gama usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Mirassol's matches and 71% of Vasco DA Gama's.
Do Mirassol and Vasco DA Gama tend to score early?
Mirassol have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Vasco DA Gama in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Mirassol edge out Vasco DA Gama 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mirassol beat Vasco DA Gama 3-2 at Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia, Regular Season - 18, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mirassol 1.59 xG and Vasco DA Gama 1.05 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Mirassol beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Vasco DA Gama outscored their 1.05 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mirassol attack 1.12 / defence 1.06 against Vasco DA Gama attack 1.08 / defence 1.12, drawn from 15/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mirassol 49% | Draw 26% | Vasco DA Gama 25%, with Mirassol to win its most likely call at 49%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mirassol 40%, Vasco DA Gama 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mirassol's trading profile (15 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Vasco DA Gama's trading profile (15 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Mirassol arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 1.00. Form held, and they took the win. Mirassol (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.86 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Vasco DA Gama (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.71 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.